Gab Sutton EFL Predictions & Betting Tips
EFL expert Gabriel Sutton will continue to bring you his betting tips and EFL predictions for every round of the new season here on Freebets.
His knowledge and insight on everything from the Championship to League One and League Two is unrivalled, so expect detailed betting tips and analysis from all three competitions.
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Gab Sutton’s EFL Predictions & Betting Tips
Our EFL pundit Gab Sutton is counting on goals at Carrow Road, and takes the rarely-trodden path of betting on a draw, in one of this weekend’s games…
Luton v Millwall
- Double Chance: Draw/Millwall
Neither Matt Bloomfield nor Alex Neil have quite had the start they wanted, as manager of Luton and Millwall respectively.
Bloomfield has overseen one point from his first two games in charge, at home to PNE and away to Oxford, with a goalless draw with the former followed by a 3-2 defeat to the latter.
Conversely, the Lions have accrued two points from Neil’s first three games in charge, with 2-2 draws with Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff sandwiching a 1-0 home defeat to Hull, and a 3-0 FA Cup victory over Dagenham.
Both teams are out of form in general, with the hosts having taken just one point from their last six league games, and the visiting Londoners have won only one of their previous 14 league games.
As such, it’s hardly surprising that both are struggling in a congested bottom half, with the Hatters languishing in 23rd, and their opponents only five points better off, having played one game fewer, in 17th.
Given how little there is to separate the sides, it seems surprising that Luton are as short as 5/4 for victory, even factoring in their strong home form.
As such, there could be more value on Millwall avoiding defeat, given that the South Bermondsey outfit have the joint-sixth best defensive record in the Championship, with excellent centre-backs in Japhet Tanganga and Jake Cooper.
Norwich v Swansea
- Norwich and over 2.5 goals
Norwich are the Championship’s second-most prolific home team this season, having scored 31 goals in 13 games at Carrow Road.
Key to that form had been striker Josh Sargent, who hasn’t always been individually clinical, having had the chances to score more than his four goals in 14 games, but he makes everyone around him better with his infectious work ethic and excellent link-up play.
Sargent’s injury had been a big factor behind the Canaries’ drop in form, but in 2-0 defeats at promotion contenders Sheffield United and Leeds, the USA international earnt an extended run-out – meaning he could be fit to start Saturday’s hosting of Swansea.
So, there’s every chance that when the 24-year-old returns, everything clicks into gear for Johannes Hoff Thorup’s side, who have done enough this season to suggest they can be a top six side when everyone’s fit and available.
Visitors Swansea, meanwhile, will have their eye on ticking off the last 16 points they need to secure their Championship status another year.
Cambridge v Mansfield
- Cambridge draw no bet
Cambridge came very close to earning a shock victory at Bolton last time out, with Garry Monk’s side denied all three points by a 90th-minute own goal from Zeno Ibsen Rossi.
The back-three of Rossi, Kelland Watts and Danny Andrew defended like trojans in the north-west, though, ably assisted by Jordan Cousins in front of them.
As such, there’s a chance that the U’s can take those foundations into Saturday’s hosting of Mansfield, when they’ll be looking to move off the foot of the table and close the eight-point gap to safety.
It’s understandable that the Stags are favourites for Saturday’s game, given how well Nigel Clough’s men have acclimatized to League One, and how close they are already to the 50-point mark – just another 13 points required from their remaining 22 league games.
That, though, also means the home side’s need for victory is far greater, and given the battling spirit they showed last weekend, there’s a chance they could be underrated by the bookies with home advantage.
Huddersfield v Bolton
- Draw
After Bolton Wanderers parted company with manager Ian Evatt this week, Julian Darby, Andy Taylor and Andrew Tutte will step up to take interim charge of the first-team for Saturday’s trip to Huddersfield.
Evatt built a great legacy at Bolton, achieving four years of linear progress in league position, one promotion, and an EFL Trophy victory along the way – but became clear, this season, that they were coming to the end of an era.
The pressure and demands of the job seemed to be taking it’s toll on the former centre-back, who has endured a strained relationship with supporters in the last six months.
As such, there’s the possibility that new faces of the club, even on a temporary basis, can rejuvenate things; it’s reasonably common for caretaker regimes to go well after a managerial exit that many had called for.
On the other hand, Saturday’s game is far from low-hanging fruit for the trio: they’re up against one of League One’s form sides.
Since starting October with a 1-0 loss at Birmingham, Huddersfield have gone 16 games unbeaten in the league, and counting.
The Terriers have added firepower, too, to those foundations, adding two proven League One goalscorers in Joe Taylor, poached from Luton, and Dion Charles, from Bolton.
So, Bolton might struggle to get all three points but there’s a good chance that the fresh faces in the dugout take effect.
MK Dons v Wimbledon
- MK Dons draw no bet
MK Dons are hoping the additions of Jay Williams, Dan Crowley and Tommi O’Reilly can inspire a promotion bid, in the last 21 games of their league campaign, but they will have to get their skates on.
After three straight defeats, Scott Lindsey’s side are now eight points off the top seven, yet in terms of individual quality, they do have the ability to put a serious run together if things click.
Lindsey may need to make one or two tweaks in defence, where Luke Offord could be better suited to playing in the middle of a back-three as opposed to on the right, while Joe Tomlinson might be needed to offer natural width from left wing-back.
With the correct alterations, things could click into gear for MK, who boast an embarrassment of riches in midfield, where they have to exclude four from Williams, Liam Kelly, Kane Thompson-Sommers, Crowley, Alex Gilbey, Joe White, Lemonhaigh-Evans and O’Reilly from the quartet – any of whom would be one of the first names on the teamsheet for most other sides at this level.
Wimbledon are almost the opposite: their squad doesn’t leap off the page in the same way, but they’ve established some solid defensive foundations, whilst Omar Bugiel has forged a great partnership with the prolific Matty Stevens in attack.
However, they’re still missing Bugiel, who brings real value with his aerial presence, selfless running and link-up play, and it’s possible they won’t be the same proposition, especially against the better teams in the league, without their Lebanese target man.
EFL Betting Offers
Gab Sutton’s EFL 2024/25 Antepost Picks
Following the opening weekend of 2024-25′s EFL action, EFL pundit Gab Sutton gives us his five tips…
Championship
Promotion
Despite being held to a 3-3 draw by Portsmouth on the opening day, Leeds are favourites for promotion and can be backed at Evens, although Daniel Farke’s side are without the prodigious talents of Archie Gray and the individual craft of Crysencio Summerville, now both have left for London.
Elsewhere, Burnley are into 5/4 after that statement 4-1 opening day victory at Luton on Monday, thanks to an incisive, clinical display from Scott Parker’s men.
The Hatters, themselves, are down to 13/5 after their disappointing start, while Middlesbrough, West Brom and Sunderland are up to 3/1, 7/2 and 4/1 respectively after opening day victories.
For Boro, it’s all about Emmanuel Latte Lath, who built on his stunning form from the last quarter of last season by getting off the mark against Swansea, and could be among the top goalscorers in the division this term.
The Baggies may have a goalscorer of their own, though, in Josh Maja, who displayed impeccable poaching instincts to bag a hat-trick in the 3-1 victory at QPR.
Sunderland need a marksman, but they have pretty much everything else if Jobe Bellingham and Jack Clarke hit top form.
The one to watch, though, is Sheffield Wednesday, after Danny Rohl’s side stormed to a 4-0 opening day victory over Plymouth Argyle.
Bigger tests are surely to come for the Owls, but in terms of pressing, patterns of play, co-ordination of movement, organisation, pace and guile, they had it all and could be a serious bet at 8/1 in some places.
Relegation
Argyle look vulnerable after that trouncing at Hillsborough, and while it’s only day one, it was hard to see what they were trying to do – it’s not as if they were pressing high, or looking after the ball well, or being aggressive in their defensive third then flying forward on the counter.
It was difficult to see a discernible game plan from Wayne Rooney’s side, who could be a bet for the drop at 7/4.
Oxford were favourites before the season began but their convincing 2-0 victory over play-off aspirants Norwich has nudged them to 6/4, the same price as Argyle, and those odds will lengthen with more performances like that – especially with the likes of Cameron Brannagan and Mark Harris making the step up seamless on early evidence.
Cardiff have shortened to 3/1, perhaps surprisingly, after that 2-0 defeat to Sunderland, despite signing the likes of Calum Chambers and Anwar El Ghazi.
Millwall, meanwhile, are 10/3 for the drop after losing 3-2 to Watford: the Lions will need a target man if they want to play the way Neil Harris likes.
Preston North End, though, look value at 10/3 after parting company with manager Ryan Lowe after the opening night’s 2-0 defeat to Sheffield United – for the Lilywhites, it all hangs on who they appoint next.
Derby are a bet at 7/2 after producing one of the worst performances of the opening weekend in their 4-2 loss at Blackburn, who are now up to 9/2, following a summer of trepidation.
League One
Promotion
Despite dropping points on the opening day, with a 1-1 draw with Reading, Birmingham remain firm favourites for promotion at 4/6: understandable, with the quality of their squad and resources.
Bolton are 23/10 second-favourite after beginning with a 2-1 victory at Leyton Orient, although Ian Evatt’s side will need to improve their performance levels, after relying on goalkeeper Nathan Baxter to bail them out at Brisbane Road.
Rotherham are 3/1 despite an opening day 1-0 defeat at Exeter, while Wrexham are fourth favourites at 16/5 following the 3-2 triumph over Wycombe, but neither of those quite look the value picks.
Instead, Huddersfield at 10/3 hold appeal after a statement victory at recent play-off competitors Peterborough and, with so many moving parts of the squad, Michael Duff has shown his managerial class to deliver such a commanding opening day performance.
Charlton can also be backed at 10/3 after a great start under Nathan Jones, winning 1-0 at Wigan, while Lincoln look the value play at 11/2, under a fine coach in Michael Skubala.
It looks highly competitive, though, with so many teams aiming to be in the mix.
Relegation
Crawley Town remain 8/11 for the drop despite beginning with a 2-1 victory over Blackpool.
11/10 second-favourites are Paul Hurst’s Shrewsbury, who opened with a 1-0 defeat at Stevenage and will rely squarely on Aston Villa loanee Tommi O’Reilly for any sort of creativity.
Cambridge are also short in that regard, and could be vulnerable after two close shaves with the drop – the U’s are 11/8 to fall at the third hurdle.
Northampton enjoyed a safe, midtable season last year, after winning promotion from League Two, but could suffer from the losses of Sam Sherring, Marc Leonard and Kieron Bowie in defence, midfield and attack respectively, and are 13/8 to plummet.
We think Burton (9/4), Leyton Orient (5/2) and Stevenage (3/1) will all be fine this season, while Mansfield and Exeter (also 3/1) have boosted their chances by getting three points on the board nice and early.
League Two
Promotion
MK Dons have widened to 6/4 for promotion with Betfair after a 2-1 loss to Bradford, but they remain favourites and, having played well in that game and created a lot of chances, with Liam Kelly pulling the strings in midfield, Mike Williamson’s side should find form very soon.
Fellow Play-Off Semi-Finalists of last year, Doncaster continued their sumptuous form from the final quarter of 2023-24 into this campaign, and after a ruthless 4-1 victory over Accrington Stanley, including fine strikes from Luke Molyneux (x2), Jordan Gibson and Billy Sharp, they look a threat at 13/8.
Also 4-1 victors at the weekend were Gillingham, who swept aside fellow promotion aspirants Carlisle with a clinical attacking showing, something we haven’t associated with the Kent outfit prior to Mark Bonner’s summer appointment – they’re 2/1 to reach League One.
Chesterfield are 9/5 to attain back-to-back promotions, although Paul Cook’s star-studded squad could only manage a 1-1 draw with Swindon on opening night.
Port Vale are ones to watch at 11/5 after beginning with a 2-1 victory at Salford, as Darren Moore’s side benefit from the higher-level pedigree of George Byers in midfield.
Elsewhere, Notts County are 16/5 for promotion after being one of the best attacking sides in the league last season, and they’re hoping to remain that if Alassana Jatta can replace talisman Macaulay Langstaff, while they’ve strengthened defensively with fine additions like Jacob Bedeau.
Relegation
Morecambe are unfortunately a value play at 5/2 with Betfair for the drop because, while they do have their greatest ever manager in Derek Adams at the helm, they’re also plagued by financial uncertainty which has compromised the standard of their recruitment, and may yet incur a points deduction.
Harrogate Town, however, could be vulnerable, too, at 7/2, with question marks over the spine for Simon Weaver’s side, who aren’t expecting to be active in the remainder of the transfer window.
Accrington Stanley, on the other hand, look to be in for a struggle at 11/2 with bet365, with the mood around the club suffering from the careless treatment of legendary manager John Coleman – that mood may sour with a poor start.
Newport are 4/1 to drop through the EFL’s trapdoor under an unknown quantity in Nelson Jardim, although there can be some encouragement taken their performance in the 3-2 loss at Cheltenham, which deserved at least a point.
Swindon meanwhile, could be ones to plummet at 11/2, after ownership and structural issues led to their lowest ever finish last year – there’s a chance they could implode.
EFL Betting Tips from Gabriel Sutton
About Gab Sutton
Known for offering an expert opinion on all things EFL, Gab Sutton is a man to listen to when he talks about the Football League.
Every week, he brings his best picks in the form of Sutton’s Acca to mark your card for the weekend action.
On top of this, Gab also delivers a huge amount of insight into the EFL via his Twitter feed, so if you want to keep on top of what’s happening away from the Premier League then give Gab a follow on Twitter.
What is the EFL?
The EFL covers three of the four English leagues, consisting of the Championship, League One and League Two.
Each league has promotion and relegation, with the main goal for clubs being to get out of the Championship and up into the Premier League.
Coverage of the Premier League is everywhere, but here at Freebets, we want to focus on more than just top flight football. Thanks to the incredible knowledge Gabriel has, we’ve got an expert on hand to guide us through the Championship, League One and League Two every week of the season.
From battles at the bottom to those fighting for promotion, with three leagues, there is sure to be plenty of excitement in the 2024/25 season.
Championship Betting Tips
The second tier of English football, and the league often referred to as the toughest to gain promotion from in the world.
The prize is big, a place in the Premier League, arguably the greatest football league in the world.
But of course, everyone wants to get there. That makes the Championship highly competitive, and the 2024/25 season could well be the most competitive ever given the line up we have.
League One Betting Tips
League One comes in the middle of the pack, but has been home to a number of bigger names in recent years, and the coming season is no different.
The likes of Birmingham, Bolton, Barnsley, Charlton, Reading and Peterborough have records that show they can compete much higher, so once again, a tight finish to the season is expected.
League Two Betting Tips
League Two almost always offers a competitive environment at the top, with four teams promoted up into League One.
There’s plenty of focus points, but of course, the entire world will have eyes on Wrexham, finally back in the football league, with Hollywood ownership and ambitions to make it back-to-back promotions, they will grab 99% of the attention on this league, for sure.
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