Japanese Grand Prix prediction, Formula 1 betting tips & odds
The last Formula 1 action for over a month comes from the iconic Suzuka Circuit, home of the Japanese Grand Prix and the likely site of a third straight win for the fast-starting Mercedes team.
The Silver Arrows have been a cut above the rest in this new era of F1 with Kimi Antonelli securing his maiden victory in China last time out, leading home the winner of the Australian Grand Prix and current Drivers’ Championship leader George Russell.
Betting sites can’t see beyond another Mercedes win in Japan, although the unique configuration of the track had led to suggestions of a more serious challenge from Ferrari.Â
They’ve been Mercedes’ closest rivals so far, but Friday practice suggested McLaren may be in the mix to be best of the rest, if they can solve their reliability issues.
Japanese Grand Prix Tips
Check out the latest Formula 1 betting tips and free bet offers ahead of Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix.
Tip 1: Kimi Antonelli to win the Japanese GP
For all the talk of a potential battle with Ferrari this weekend at Suzuka, the signs in Friday’s practice sessions suggested this will be another in-house Mercedes battle.
Few teams have had time to introduce significant upgrades since the last race in China and while there are fewer long straights at Suzuka for Mercedes to utilise their straight-line speed advantage, the gap between themselves and the rest of the grid appears to be sizeable.
In the race simulations, no one came within half a second a lap of Mercedes, with Antonelli ahead of George Russell.Â
Formula 1 betting sites make Russell odds-on for victory in Japan, but in an attempt to get a bit more bang for our buck, let's go with Antonelli at 3/1 instead for the first of our F1 betting tips.
He has that first win under his belt now, driving a composed race in China as he led from start to finish and kept Russell at arm’s reach the whole time.
How genuine a world title threat the Italian is to Russell is still to be seen, but he’s proven on several occasions to be more than a match for his more established team mate and should be in the frame for the win come Sunday.Â
Tip 2: Double Haas points finish
It’s been an excellent start to the season for Haas, who sit fourth in the Constructors’ Championship, one place ahead of Red Bull.Â
All of Haas’ 17 points have come from Olivier Bearman and the Brit is poised to be the breakout star of 2026.
One of the main strengths of the Haas has been its reliability and as the likes of Audi, McLaren and Red Bull come to terms with these new cars, Haas already have a good understanding of the VF-26.
It’s certainly a good enough car for Bearman’s team mate Esteban Ocon to join Bearman in the top 10 this weekend with the Frenchman having something to prove following a nightmare race last time out.Â
Ocon received death threats on social media after colliding with Fran Colapinto in Shanghai, an incident he took the blame for and subsequently was penalised.
This is his chance to bounce back at a track where he’s scored points in four of his last six starts.
Tip 3: Lando Norris podium finish & Isak Hadjar points finish
It’s been a pretty disastrous start to the season for the reigning champions, McLaren, with Oscar Piastri yet to get a grand prix lap in, while world title holder Lando Norris failed to start in China.
Reliability is clearly an issue for McLaren, who had a few issues in Friday’s practice. However, when on the track, the McLaren looked good with Norris third and fourth fastest in the two sessions.
Norris has finished runner-up in Japan in two of the last three races and with Ferrari seemingly struggling with their setup, the door has been left ajar for the champion to finish best of the rest.
Suzuka has been owned by Red Bull for the last four years with Max Verstappen taking the chequered flag on each occasion. A fifth straight win would be a huge surprise, though, given the issues they had in practice.
Verstappen is as big as 45/1 on some betting apps for victory and is clearly not enjoying this new version of F1. The same can’t be said for Hadjar, who was eighth in China, despite an early spin, and was on for a good outing in Australia before a mechanical issue ended his race early.Â
Hadjar is more than competent as Red Bull's number two and should be in the points by the finish of Sunday’s race.
Formula 1 odds
Where to watch the Japanese Grand Prix
Here's how to watch all the action from the Suzuka Circuit.
TV Channel
In the UK, the main live TV home for the Japanese Grand Prix is Sky Sports F1, and some listings also note additional live coverage on Sky Sports Main Event for parts of the weekend
Live stream information
For UK streaming, the Japanese Grand Prix can be watched live on Sky Go and NOW TV with a Sky Sports subscription.
Japanese Grand Prix information
Race start time
The Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix is scheduled to begin at 6:00am BST.
Race date
The 2026 Japanese Grand Prix race day is Sunday, 29 March 2026.
Track
The Japanese Grand Prix is being held at Suzuka Circuit, which is the long-established home venue for Japan’s Formula 1 race.
More Betting Tips
Find more betting previews ahead of a busy weekend of sporting action.
