Lossiemouth Cheltenham Target: Champion Hurdle & Mares Defence Still Open
A week from today, we might be sat here marvelling over Lossiemouth winning the Champion Hurdle. But we could also be sat here talking about her entry in the Mares' Hurdle, it's Willie Mullins bingo time for punters, and with this particular one, I can't split it.
Take on the boys in what could be one of the weakest Champion Hurdles for the past few years? Or defend the Mares' Hurdle crown and make it a hat trick of wins in that particular contest?
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Lossiemouth Cheltenham Race: Champion or Mares?
We'll all have our opinion on where she should run, and I'll give you mine shortly, but just in terms of where I think she will run, here's what I think right now.
Both Willie and Patrick Mullins have said in recent days that the Champion Hurdle is still a possibility, and they've yet to make a decision.
But of course, we've heard them say that before.
Let's look at what betting sites are telling us, as well as insight from the exchange.
She is a best price 7/2 to win the Champion Hurdle (AK Bets), when you look at bookmakers, and on the exchange, she's 11/2 at the time of writing.
For the Mares' Hurdle, she's best price 11/10 (again AK Bets) with bookmakers, and 6/4 on the exchange at the time of writing.
As you can see, the gap for the Champion Hurdle is much quicker, so people are more inclined to lay her at risk for that, than they are for the Mares' Hurdle.
I don't think it's the biggest stretch in the world to say she could go off favourite for the Champion Hurdle, so that 11/2, for those who take it, could look very nice in just under a week.
She'll be odds on in the Mares' Hurdle on the day I think, if that's where she goes, but being 4/5 on the day compared to getting 6/4 now isn't as much of a difference.
The Case for the Champion Hurdle
I think the case for the Champion Hurdle all comes from the race itself, rather than Lossiemouth individually.
This could turn out to be a really weak renewal of the race, with the favourite, The New Lion, not truly confirmed as a two mile horse, something we'll find out next week.
I know Golden Ace won the race last year, but the fact she's a 6/1 shot tells you all you need to know, in my opinion. She's good, but her becoming a dual Champion Hurdle winner would be something odd, to say the least.
All connections looking at this race will be thinking that they might never get another chance like this, and that's what, if anything, will surely persuade Team Mullins here.
He's not got a genuine contender, Lossiemouth would give him that in a weak renewal.
The Case for the Mares' Hurdle
As much as I say the Champion Hurdle is a weak renewal, I'm not sure there's much depth at all to the Mares' Hurdle either.
Wodhood being the obvious danger, alongside Brightdaysahead (going to the Champion?) and Jade De Grugy, but after that, there's little else in this field that can stand up to Lossiemouth.
She's won this race twice before, landing the hat trick will have some appeal. And a win here would mean four straight at Cheltenham, after winning the Triumph Hurdle three years back.
It's the easier option, but is it so much easier? I don't think so.
Verdict
If I was fortunate enough to either own, or train Lossiemouth, and I could make the decision, then she'd be heading to the Champion Hurdle.
I think she's got the right profile for it, and would take plenty of beating with the allowance in what is a substandard renewal of the race.
But I think Willie Mullins will do the opposite. I think they'll play it safe, go for the Mares' Hurdle and land a third win in that contest. From then on, I think she'll stick to that race, no questions, and try to emulate the great Quevega, who won it six times.
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