Australian Grand Prix prediction, Formula 1 betting tips & odds
Everything has been turned upside down in the world of Formula 1 following the biggest set of rule changes in a generation, so it seems only fitting we start this new era Down Under.
The 2026 F1 season features new power units, new chassis, new fuel, new tyres, and even two new teams as Audi and Cadillac join the grid, meaning there’ll be 22 cars on track for the first time in a decade.
The shake-up has left bettors in the dark as to who will challenge McLaren’s Lando Norris for his Drivers’ Championship, with George Russell of Mercedes the ante-post favourite on betting sites, just ahead of Max Verstappen.
Pre-season testing gave a few hints as to which teams have adapted to the new regulations the quickest, with Mercedes viewed as top dogs in the paddock, although not to the extent of the start of the hybrid era in 2014 when they won 16 out of 19 races that year.
We may not get a true sense of how the land lies for several races, with plenty of drivers still getting to grips with their new cars based on the first two practice sessions in Australia.
Bettors may be wise to keep stakes small for now as we delve into our F1 betting tips for the season-opening race.
Australian Grand Prix Tips
Check out our Formula 1 betting tips and free bet offers ahead of Sunday’s Australian Grand Prix.
Tip 1: Kimi Antonelli to win the Australian Grand Prix - each-way
It's unlikely we’ve seen the true potential of the Mercedes so far with the team having chosen not to run their 2026 charge in optimum conditions in pre-season and practice.
They went early in Friday’s practice sessions, before the track had got up to temperature and posted some impressive times in the race simulation runs.
The consensus opinion is Mercedes just have the edge, but McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari aren’t too far behind. However, of those four team, the Silver Arrows look like the ones to trust early doors.
Russell is the warm favourite to win in Australia and if he is to mount a serious title challenge, a fast start is a must, given the length of the season and the pace of development we’ve seen in recent F1 seasons.
However, he could face a serious challenge at Albert Park from his team mate Kimi Antonelli, who was second fastest in practice.
The Italian’s debut season in F1 in 2025 was mixed, but he gave glimpses of his potential, finishing the year with three podiums to his name and consistently challenging Russell in the final six races.
Antonelli has strong each-way claims at 15/2, with Betway paying out on the top three home in Australia with each-way wagers.
Tip 2: Olivier Bearman top-10 finish
Big things are expected of Ollie Bearman this season in the Haas after he scored 41 points and finished his debut campaign 13th in the Drivers’ Championship standings.
It’s no secret that Ferrari are big admirers of the Brit and a strong 2026 season may be enough to convince them to make a change to their driver line-up.
Haas look to have built a reliable car, clocking up plenty of miles in pre-season testing, and given how little we really know about how these cars will perform, reliability could be key in the early stages of the season.
In the right conditions, we’ve seen what Bearman can do in the Haas and he got off to a strong start last season, scoring points in three of the four opening races.
The battle in midfield will be fiercely contested, but Bearman’s quality in a potentially reliable car could see him finish in the top-10.
Formula 1 odds
Where to watch the Australian Grand Prix
Here's how to watch all the action from Albert Park in Melbourne.
TV Channel
The Australian Grand Prix race coverage in the United Kingdom is broadcast live on the Sky Sports F1 channel.
Live stream information
UK viewers can also watch the Australian Grand Prix live through the Sky Go app if they have a valid Sky Sports subscription, or through the NOW streaming platform which offers contract-free Sky Sports passes that include live coverage of the race and full weekend programming.
Australian Grand Prix information
Race start time
The Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix race at Albert Park is scheduled to begin at 4:00am GMT.
Race date
The 2026 Australian Grand Prix race is scheduled to take place on Sunday, 8 March 2026, as part of the opening race weekend of the new Formula 1 season.
Track
The Australian Grand Prix takes place at the Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne, a temporary street circuit built around Albert Park Lake.
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