Australian Open Tips: Tennis Men's & Women's Outright Betting Preview
The first Grand Slam event of the year kicks off this weekend with action from the Australian Open taking place.
Tennis betting expert here at Free Bets, Ben Smith, has cast his eye across the men's and women's field, finding two outright selections in both competitions.
Australian Open Tips
First up with my tennis betting tips, a winner of the men's single and a quarter winner from the men's event.
Then it's a switch over to the women's, with two each way picks on the outright market, at 18/1 and 40/1!
Men’s Singles Tips
Only five different men have won the Australian Open in the past two decades. Stan Wawrinka was a surprise champion in 2014, but aside from that, the title has been shared between Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Jannik Sinner.
With the last three Grand Slam finals all featuring the same two players, you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s a foregone conclusion that Sinner will be in the final on February 1, once again facing world number one Carlos Alcaraz.
But betting sites don’t see it as a certainty, though, with that outcome priced at 10/11.
That’s a bigger quote than Sinner’s outright odds to win the title with most firms, and while he’s a deserved favourite, he may well be a touch too short.
Winner: Carlos Alcaraz - 15/8 SpreadEx
In the Sinner vs Alcaraz rivalry, neither man seems to stay on top for long. Alcaraz is the top seed here, but Sinner won their most recent competitive meeting, beating him to lift the ATP Finals title in Turin.
The extra variety in Sinner’s game has helped him get the better of his rival lately, but you can be sure Alcaraz has spent the off-season working on his own answers.
After Alcaraz won that classic French Open final, Sinner was 2/1 to win Wimbledon pre-tournament and got his revenge. Alcaraz then responded in New York, going off at a similar price.
At both SW19 and Flushing Meadows, the gap between their odds narrowed as the final approached. I expect the same again in Melbourne, so taking a position on the second-favourite at the current odds makes sense.
It’s hard to see how the Spaniard doesn’t reach at least the semi-finals. The same applies to Sinner, but his odds are unlikely to shorten much throughout the fortnight while Alcaraz remains alive in the other half.
Quarter 2 Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 7/1 BoyleSports
The more interesting men’s singles outright markets at Grand Slams are the quarters that don’t feature the top two.
Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev lead the way in the second quarter betting, and I’m happy to take a different view at a reasonably big price.
Medvedev will be a popular choice given his recent form and his history in Melbourne, but 2/1 just to make the semi-finals feels tight when you factor in how often he came unstuck in early rounds in last year’s majors. He can still win this section and is probably the most likely man to do so, but the price doesn’t leave much room for error.
I’m similarly reluctant to get on board with Zverev. 9/4 just isn’t enough, especially with a draw that looks awkward from the start.
That brings Felix Auger-Aliassime into the conversation. The 2025 US Open semi-finalist concluded the 2025 campaign in stellar form, winning in Brussels, reaching the Paris Masters final, and advancing out of his group at the ATP Finals.
Yes, he was well beaten by Zizou Bergs at the United Cup in one of only two matches he’s played this year, but those early-season matches can be volatile while players build match fitness and regain their feel.
The Canadian’s Australian Open record isn’t great, but conditions shouldn’t be an issue. He won in Adelaide last year, where the same balls and Greenset courts are used.
Women’s Singles Tips
Aryna Sabalenka was denied a Melbourne three-peat by Madison Keys in last year’s women’s final, but the Belarusian is the favourite to win the title back and claim a fifth Grand Slam crown.
Second-favourite Iga Swiatek is chasing a career Grand Slam after winning Wimbledon in 2025, while Elena Rybakina has climbed to third on the betting board following a 13-match winning streak that included qualifying for, and winning, the WTA Finals in Riyadh.
Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff are also priced up in single figures, but my main pick comes from the tier just below the top five.
Winner: Mirra Andreeva (Each-Way) - 18/1 Betfred
Mirra Andreeva has been well respected in Grand Slam outright markets ever since she reached the French Open semi-final aged 17. The prices never really appealed before, but this feels like the right moment, with Andreeva now ready to contend and her odds drifting to a more workable range after money has come for the established elite.
Not long ago, some firms had Andreeva as short as 8/1 to win in Melbourne, which always looked too tight. Since then, support has come for a few of the favourites, she lost to Marta Kostyuk in Brisbane, and the draw has played its part in the drift too, with Gauff in her quarter and Sabalenka in her half.
What I don’t think has been fully factored in is how good she’s looked since that Kostyuk defeat, which came after a late finish the night before. Andreeva has been superb in Adelaide, and she appears mentally much stronger than the version of her we saw towards the end of last season.
Gauff isn’t the ideal quarter-final match-up, but her route to the last eight isn’t straightforward and she’s lacked consistency since winning the French Open. If Andreeva gets through that, Sabalenka is a better fit stylistically, as she showed at Indian Wells last year when she completely pulled the Belarusian out of her rhythm.
Winner: Jessica Pegula (Each-Way) - 40/1 Star Sports
Jessica Pegula is one of those players the market never seems to fully trust, and I’m keen to take advantage when the price is there.
Her draw only strengthens the case. A possible fourth round meeting with Madison Keys is a test, but it’s manageable given Keys’ lack of tennis at the back end of 2025. Beyond that, Anisimova is the favourite to win the quarter, but Pegula has beaten her three times out of three, so I’m fine with taking on that risk.
She was a 50/1 shot with some firms for the US Open, where she went within a whisker of taking out Sabalenka in the semi-finals. She was similarly overlooked as a 16/1 shot in an eight-player field at the WTA Finals, pushing Rybakina all the way before losing a tight three-setter.
The key point is she’s competitive against the best players more often than not, and she can beat them, as shown with wins over Swiatek, Sabalenka and Gauff last term.
