World Cup Group D Predictions & Betting Tips
Will Jackson 
Scott McGlynn
Group D is the toughest of the three host groups and one of the most balanced in the entire tournament. Co-hosts the United States open against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium on 12 June, with Australia and Turkey making up the rest of the section.
Mauricio Pochettino's USMNT have plenty to prove after a difficult run of warm-up friendlies, and home advantage may be tested earlier than they would like.
This is one of the more open groups in the tournament. Any of the four sides could realistically finish second or third, and the new format gives all of them a route to the Round of 32.
Turkey arrive on the back of a playoff win over Kosovo, while Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010.
Browse our World Cup betting offers before you place your bets on Group D.
Group D Teams & Form
United States
The USMNT face the toughest host group and arrive in a tricky spot.
Mauricio Pochettino has had a mixed time as head coach, with the recent friendly defeats to Belgium (5-2) and Portugal raising real questions about defensive structure.
The squad has talent - Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, Folarin Balogun and Tyler Adams are all recognised players - but the team has not clicked consistently.
Home advantage will help, particularly with the opener at SoFi Stadium and a structured group schedule. The pressure is genuine and the US enter as the biggest liability for several US sportsbooks.
Paraguay
Paraguay return after a 16-year absence having finished sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying.
They are not the household-name side they were when Roque Santa Cruz was leading the line, but they are a stubborn, well-organised team.
Manager Gustavo Alfaro has built a defensive structure designed to frustrate better sides and pinch results on the counter. Their opening match against the USA on 12 June could be a banana skin for the hosts.
Australia
The Socceroos qualified comfortably from the Asian playoffs and arrive with the same workmanlike approach that took them to the Round of 16 in 2022.
Tony Popovic has taken over from Graham Arnold and the side have stayed competitive.
Mat Ryan, Aaron Mooy and Mitchell Duke continue to provide the spine, but Australia lack the star power of the other host-group challengers.
Turkey
Vincenzo Montella's Turkey came through European Playoff Path C, beating Romania 1-0 and Kosovo 1-0 to seal qualification.
They reached the Euro 2024 quarter-finals and the squad blends top-level experience (Hakan Calhanoglu, Arda Guler, Ferdi Kadioglu) with talented young attackers. Turkey are arguably the most dangerous outfield team in this group.
Group D Predictions
This group is genuinely open. The USA have home advantage and should top the group on schedule alone, but their warm-up form is concerning. Turkey may well be the strongest team on paper, while Paraguay and Australia are both capable of pinching points off either of the top two.
I still fancy USA to win the group at home and for Turkey to take second, with the third-place lottery between Paraguay and Australia too close to call.
With the new qualification rules though, all four have a realistic route to the Round of 32 thanks to the best third-placed teams having a route into the knockouts.
The biggest risk in this group is the USA imploding under pressure. Their warm-up performances have been worrying enough that backing them to top the group at short prices feels uncomfortable.
Group D Betting Tips
Find more analysis on every fixture in our World Cup 2026 tips hub as the tournament approaches, but here are three top prices and pre-tournament tips to use with our free bet offers.
Tip 1: Turkey to Qualify From Group D
Turkey have the most balanced squad in the group and Vincenzo Montella has them playing with structure. They came through a difficult qualifying group and beat Kosovo in a tight playoff final. Backing them to qualify (top three) rather than to top the group is the value play.
The expanded format makes this a particularly safe play given Turkey's Euro 2024 quarter-final pedigree. They should comfortably claim a top-three position.
Tip 2: USA to Win Group D
The home advantage is real and the schedule is built around the USMNT topping their group. Three matches in the United States, time-zone advantages, and the boost of home crowds should be enough to overcome the warm-up wobbles. The price reflects the host status, but it still represents fair value.
If you are concerned about the USA's recent form, this is a tip to back at smaller stakes rather than load up on.
Tip 3: Bet Builder - USA to Win the Group & Turkey to Qualify
This bet builder combines our two main angles in the group: the USA topping their group at home and Turkey securing a top-three finish. Both outcomes are realistic and combining them produces a more rewarding price than backing either individually.
The legs do not contradict each other - the USA winning the group still allows Turkey to qualify in second or third - and this is the most balanced way to bet on Group D.
It's quite hard to call elsewhere in the group, with neither Paraguay or Australia likely to roll over, making it potentially one of the groups which sees all the teams finish very close to each other and goal difference come into play.
Market Outlook
The USA are favourites to win Group D thanks to home advantage, with Turkey priced as the closest challenger. Paraguay and Australia are mid-market outsiders to top the group but both are short prices to qualify in the top three. This is one of the most open group winner markets in the tournament.
You can compare prices for this group across all major betting sites on our World Cup 2026 odds page.
Odds are subject to change. 18+ only. Please bet responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.
Group D fixtures
- USA vs Paraguay - 12 June, 02:00 BST
- Australia vs Turkey - 13 June, 05:00 BST
- Turkey vs Paraguay - 19 June, 08:00 BST
- USA vs Australia - 20 June, 08:00 BST
- Paraguay vs Australia - 26 June, 03:00 BST
- Turkey vs USA - 26 June, 03:00 BST
