Clacton By-Election Odds: Count Binface Odds Slashed As Main Parties Stand Aside
The Clacton by-election has taken a remarkable turn, with every major UK party refusing to field a candidate against Nigel Farage - and satirical hopeful Count Binface emerging as the big mover in the betting.
Farage resigned as the MP for Clacton on Tuesday 7 July, triggering a by-election he says he will fight, amid ongoing scrutiny of his personal finances.
He insists he has done nothing wrong and wants voters to have the final say.
But rather than take him on, Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have all confirmed they will sit this one out - and even Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain is standing aside for now.
Here at Free Bets, we look at the Clacton by-election betting picture, and how a very unusual contest is shaping up.
Clacton By-Election Odds
Check out the latest Clacton By-Election odds below.
| Party | Odds |
| Reform | 1/6 |
| Count Binface | 7/2 |
| Restore Britain | 40/1 |
| Conservative | 40/1 |
| Green Party | 40/1 |
| Labour | 66/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 200/1 |
Odds correct as of Wednesday, 8 July, 3:00pm - courtesy of William Hill
With the main parties standing aside, several of those prices reflect parties that may not actually put up a candidate - so expect the market to be reshaped once the final field is confirmed. Reform are as short as 1/16 with some UK betting sites.
Why the Main Parties Are Standing Aside?
In the space of 24 hours, all the established parties confirmed they would not contest the seat, dismissing it as a "fake" or "vanity" by-election designed to distract from the standards inquiry into Farage's finances.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said her party would not stand in "the fake by-election that Farage is causing," but would contest "the real by-election, which will follow the standards investigation."
Labour called it a "sham" and said it "won't take part," while Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey urged all parties to "refuse to give oxygen to Farage's vanity project."
The Greens confirmed their local party would not stand either.
Restore Britain's Rupert Lowe said he would sit out this "sham" contest but would stand in a second by-election later in the year, should one follow the conclusion of the investigations.
It leaves Farage, who is confirmed to be standing for Reform UK, without a single established-party challenger.
Count Binface Enters - and the Odds Tumble
Into that vacuum has stepped Count Binface, the satirical candidate who declared himself an anti-Farage "unity candidate" and posted "On my way, Clacton" on social media.
And punters have taken notice, with William Hill now making him the 7/2 second favourite to win the seat.
He's a familiar face on the by-election circuit, having stood at the recent Makerfield by-election, and his manifesto includes capping the price of a 99 Flake at 99p.
Who Is Count Binface?
Count Binface is the satirical alter-ego of British comedian and writer Jonathan Harvey, who has been a fixture of UK elections for years.
The character is a self-styled "intergalactic space warrior" who campaigns in a black cape and a bin-shaped helmet.
Harvey first made a splash in 2017, standing against Theresa May as "Lord Buckethead," before a copyright dispute forced him to reinvent the character as Count Binface in 2019.
Since then, he has taken on some of the biggest names in politics, standing against Boris Johnson in 2019 and Rishi Sunak at the 2024 general election, as well as running twice for Mayor of London.
His campaigns are deliberately tongue-in-cheek, built around joke policies and a slogan of "Make Your Vote Count" aimed at encouraging turnout.
He is not expected to win - his best results tend to be a few hundred votes - but with the main parties standing aside in Clacton, he could be in line for his strongest showing yet.
Is Farage Still Nailed On?
In a word, yes. Even with a novelty candidate grabbing the headlines, Farage is a huge odds-on favourite to win his seat back.
He romped home in Clacton in 2024 with 46.2% of the vote and a majority of 8,405.
His personal profile in the town is enormous, and Reform UK lead the national polls, sitting around 25% in the latest surveys - ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.
With no established-party opposition on the ballot, the more likely betting interest lies in the specials once they appear - his winning majority, vote share and turnout, plus just how high Count Binface and the other independents can finish.
What Happens Next
No date has been confirmed.
Farage must first formally step down by applying for an office of profit under the Crown, after which the by-election is scheduled a few weeks later.
Reports suggest the earliest possible polling day is 30 July, with dates in August also in the mix.
We'll update this page with the latest odds and any new candidates as the picture becomes clearer.
