Keir Starmer Resignation Odds: PM Odds-On To Leave In 2026
The betting markets are turning against the Prime Minister - and it's not a good look for the Labour leader, with Keir Starmer resignation odds attracting strong interest from punters across the country.
Betting sites across the board now price Starmer as odds-on to leave Downing Street in 2026, with Ladbrokes as short as 1/7 (implied probability ~87%), that he is gone before the next general election.
To put that in context, the last time a sitting UK Prime Minister was priced this short to exit was Boris Johnson's final week in July 2022.
Here at FreeBets.com, we check out the latest Keir Starmer resignation odds as the PM battles to save his job.
Keir Starmer Resignation Odds
With pressure mounting in Westminster, the latest Keir Starmer resignation odds give a clear indication of how the betting markets see his future unfolding.
| Exit Date | Keir Starmer Resignation Odds |
| 2026 | 1/3 |
| 2027 | 7/2 |
| 2028 | 10/1 |
| 2029 | 10/1 |
Odds correct as of Monday, 20 April, 2:30pm - courtesy of William Hill
What Triggered the Market Move?
The immediate catalyst is the Peter Mandelson security-vetting scandal.
Revelations on 16 April confirmed that Mandelson - already sacked as US Ambassador in September 2025 - had failed his security vetting in January 2025, with the Foreign Office overriding its own advice "on the understanding that the Prime Minister wanted the appointment to proceed."
Starmer sacked Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins within 24 hours and faced the Commons on 20 April, where opposition leaders openly accused him of misleading Parliament.
Lord Glasman became the first Labour peer to call for his resignation; Reform, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems all demanded he go.
But the Mandelson story didn't create the market - it accelerated it.
The real turning point was early February, when chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and communications director Tim Allan both resigned within 24 hours, and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar became the first senior Labour figure to publicly call for Starmer to step down.
The polling is driving it too.
Ipsos's latest survey puts Labour fourth at 19%, behind Reform (25%), the Conservatives (19%) and the Greens (17%).
Starmer's personal net satisfaction stands at –56, the worst approval rating for any sitting PM since Ipsos began tracking in 1977, below Sunak on D-Day, Johnson during Partygate, and Truss on resignation day.
Why 7 May Matters
Traders are treating the 7 May local, Scottish and Welsh elections as the trigger point.
If Reform tops 380 new councillors, Labour loses Wales for the first time since 1931, and the Scottish vote confirms a third-place finish, the pressure on Starmer becomes almost impossible to resist.
Who Replaces Starmer?
Angela Rayner heads the succession market at 5/2, with Wes Streeting at 6/1, Ed Miliband at 6/1, and Nigel Farage at 8/1.
For the full breakdown of who could be next in line for Downing Street, check out our Next UK Prime Minister odds piece.
