Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Rayner Favourite To Replace Keir Starmer
The Next UK Prime Minister odds have shifted rapidly at the betting sites this week - and the Peter Mandelson row is driving the movement.
Reports on 16 April revealed Mandelson had failed security vetting as far back as January 2025, despite being appointed after the Foreign Office overruled advice, directly contradicting Starmer’s earlier claims to the Commons.
With opposition parties piling pressure and calling for his resignation, the market has reacted sharply.
So if Starmer goes, who steps in?
Here at FreeBets.com, we've run through the five most likely candidates, their odds, and what the markets are telling us.
Next UK Prime Minister Odds
With Keir Starmer's position as Prime Minister now looking increasingly untenable following the Mandelson security-vetting scandal, Labour are facing the very real prospect of a leadership change.
Below we assess five realistic candidates who could be next in line to take the keys to Downing Street.
| Candidate | Next UK Prime Minister Odds |
| Angela Rayner | 5/2 |
| Ed Miliband | 6/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 6/1 |
| Nigel Farage | 8/1 |
| Andy Burnham | 11/1 |
Odds correct as of Friday, 17 April, 2:30pm - courtesy of Parimatch
Angela Rayner
Angela Rayner heads the market for a reason.
She retains a strong connection with Labour members, backing from major unions, and - crucially - the freedom of the back benches, allowing her to rebuild her profile and speak without restriction over recent months.
There are clear risks, including ongoing scrutiny and questions over her economic credentials, but she remains one of the few candidates with genuine grassroots appeal.
If it goes to a full member ballot, she would be extremely hard to beat, making her position at the head of the market look justified.
Our verdict: Rayner as the current market favourite is the right call. If this goes to a proper member ballot, Rayner wins it. The risk is a PLP stitch-up that squeezes her out at the nomination stage - but even then, the membership backlash would be severe.
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband is a big price but arguably the most interesting outsider in the market.
He tops Labour's internal favourability rankings, is hugely popular with members, and his energy policies have made him the standout figure on the party's left - plus he brings proven leadership experience.
There are obvious drawbacks - he's ruled himself out, carries past election baggage, and still struggles with wider public perception.
But if circumstances change, he's the type of candidate who could quickly shorten, making him a lively value play at bigger odds.
Our verdict: Miliband is genuinely interesting if the declared candidates implode and a "draft Ed" movement takes hold - which has happened in Labour leadership races before.
Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting is widely seen as the candidate with the strongest backing among Labour MPs, with a reform-focused message that plays well beyond the party base and a polished media operation to match.
His long-stated leadership ambitions and focus on the NHS keep him firmly in the conversation.
However, his support among members remains a major concern, and past U-turns have given critics ammunition.
In any contest that goes to a full membership vote, he faces a tougher path - but if the process is controlled at nomination stage, he's a serious player in the market.
Our verdict: A decent bet for a PLP-dominated contest but will struggle if it goes to a full membership vote. At the current odds, the market has him about right.
Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage's presence in the Next Prime Minister market is all about one scenario - Reform winning outright or emerging as the largest party, rather than anything linked to Labour.
He's been consistently near the top of voting intention polls, and compared favourably with leading Labour figures in recent "best PM" polling, underlining his national profile.
That said, the path to power remains narrow.
Reform would need a major breakthrough under first-past-the-post or a collapse of the main parties, and with no governing track record plus internal issues, there are still significant hurdles - but at the odds, he remains a major player in the market.
Our verdict: If you believe a political realignment is coming and Labour's collapse is structural rather than cyclical, Farage is a sound bet. Not for the faint-hearted, but the market respects him for a reason.
Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham is the clear grassroots favourite, with strong backing from Labour members and standout favourability ratings that put him ahead of any other contender.
His policy platform and growing support network make him a serious threat if he makes it onto the ballot.
The issue is straightforward - he’s not currently an MP.
That creates a significant barrier, as he’d need to return to Westminster before even entering the race, making his path far more complicated despite his strong position with members.
Our verdict: The most compelling candidate on paper - popular with members, competitive with the public, and the only Labour figure who comes close to neutralising Farage with swing voters.
