Charlie McCann's Horse Racing Tips Saturday, 3 October - Newmarket, Ascot, Longchamp & Woodbine
Charlie heads to Woodbine on Saturday for his best bet
It's a busy day of racing action in the UK and Ireland, and Charlie McCann is here with his exclusive free horse racing tips - only at FreeBets.
2:10pm Newmarket - Ernst Bloefeld
Blue Hercules doesn't stay a mile-and-a-half, and I am surprised connections are persevering with the trip. He is held on the revised terms by another doubtful stayer, Tycoon, on Ascot form from back in July, and my two against the field are Primo Lara and ERNST BLOFELD, with preference for the latter.
I have to finally admit that Primo Lara stays this 12f trip, although he may have had his stamina stretched to the limit when third over 13.5f at Newbury last time. He travelled as well as anything at the Berkshire track, and he is finally fulfilling the potential he showed as a three-year-old back for a second stint at the yard of Jane Chapple-Hyam.
Ernst Blofeld was acquired by Wathnan privately ahead of last year's Royal Ascot on the back of a staying on fourth in the London Gold Cup. He has not really gone on as those shrewd connections might have hoped, but a change of tactics saw him try and make all at Doncaster over the Leger trip of 1m6f+ in the Mallard Handicap last time.
I didn't think it was the strongest renewal of that famous handicap, but he ran his best race for some time on Town Moor, although he may not get things his own way on the lead with market leader Evanesco and Top Team, other potential front-runners.
The selection has been raised 1lb since Doncaster, but connections have booked talented apprentice Harry Vigors for the ride, claiming a valuable 5lbs. There will be plenty of pace in the race, and the selection does get further, which will be an asset if, as seems likely, it becomes a thorough test.
Recommendation: Ernst Bloefeld - 9/2 with bet365
3:50pm Newmarket - Starlight Lass
The three-year-old STARLIGHT LASS was made 3/1 favourite for a valuable York handicap last time but ran no race on the rain-softened ground. She can be given another chance back on a sound surface with Colin Keane taking the ride for the first time.
The filly had won two of her three previous starts prior to York, making all in Novice events over a mile on the July course and at Yarmouth on fast ground. She was held up pulling hard at York over this seven-furlong trip last time, but it would be a surprise if she were not ridden more aggressively this afternoon back on a more suitable terrain.
The classic generation have won the last five renewals and Stimulative Trip, representing the back-to-form Menuisier stable, looks fairly treated on her third at Carlisle in listed company back in June.
Recommendation: Starlight Lass - 9/4 with bet365
3:35pm Ascot - Moonfall & Desert Shadow
Thunder Call looked a Group horse when turning a similar 7f handicap into a rout here last month, but he has been raised 8lbs and has been done no favours by the draw, given he is posted wide in one with the stalls on the stands' side. He is a best price of 11/4 and could easily turn this into another procession, but my two against the field are MOONFALL (11) and DESERT SHADOW (6) and have backed them both.
Moonfall met trouble at a vital time when second to Scoville over a mile at Doncaster last time, and the drop back down in distance is a concern from a 2lbs higher mark. That said, he led at the distance when second to Hickory over a mile here last month and is taken to reverse the form despite being 3lbs worse off with the winner, who is a course specialist.
Desert Shadow has won two of his last three – all at 7f – and may have hit the front too soon when caught close home at Sandown last time on ground, arguably, softer than ideal. Kieran Shoemark takes over in the plate on the four-year-old, who has been a revelation since the application of a visor and drop back down in distance earlier in the season.
Recommendations: Moonfall - 13/2 with bet365 & Desert Shadow - 14/1 with bet365
12:58pm Longchamp - Distant Storm
Phineas is unbeaten since being gelded (4:4), and he bolted up in Group3 company last time for Team Fabre. The British challenge is strong, however, and the vote goes to the only three-year-old in the field, DISTANT STORM, over the Irish Champion Stakes second Wimbledon Hawkeye.
Distant Storm would have been a more confident selection with a kinder draw (seven of 7), but he looks ready for a step up to 10f for the first time, having finished third in the 2000 Guineas and second in the Irish equivalent earlier in the season.
The Charlie Appleby-trained colt got his head in front when he landed the odds in a Deauville Group 3 when last seen in August, and the classic generation receive 5lbs from their elders. Connections would not want lightning-fast ground in Paris, but granted genuine, good ground, he can beat his elders in a fascinating Prix Dollar.
Recommendation: Distant Storm - 5/2 with Paddy Power
10:30pm Woodbine - Purview (Nap)
The draw and a muddling pace were too much for PURVIEW (Nap) to overcome in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes, but he can reverse the form with the winner Arabian Crown in the Group 1 Canadian International at Woodbine this evening.
With Colin Keane at Newmarket/Longchamp this weekend, Chris Hayes rides the Dermot Weld-trained son of Kingman who I have always felt was a Group 1 horse granted his optimum conditions.
The three-year-old Ancient Egypt finished second totomorrow'ss leading Arc contender Maltese Cross in the Grand Prix de Paris on Bastille Day, but disappointed in Saratoga when he missed the kick and lacked the pace to get back into the race. David Egan will be keen to get on the lead tonight, and the hope is that he and Jamie Spencer on Arabian Crown help force a strong pace, which should enable the selection to pick up the pieces.
Recommendation: Purview (Nap) - 9/4 with William Hill
This is Charlie's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Alan Kelly's pick too.
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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