Charlie McCann's Horse Racing Tips Sunday, 11 October - Goodwood & Chepstow
Charlie heads to Goodwood on Sunday for his best bet
It's a busy day of racing action in the UK and Ireland, and Charlie McCann is here with his exclusive free horse racing tips - only at FreeBets.
4:42pm Goodwood - Sword Maker (Each-Way) (Nap)
Conditions were described as good to soft with soft places on Saturday morning, but there is no further rain forecast, and I hope to see conditions just on the easy side of good.
Cerulean Bay won the valuable mile handicap twelve months ago and is just 2lbs higher in the weights this afternoon. He finished second in the Coral Golden Mile at the Glorious meeting at the end of July and, somehow, is 3lbs lower in the weights today.
Crazee Icon was a filly I identified as being well handicapped off a mark of seventy-one going into her three-year-old season, and she has landed three Chester handicaps this term over trips just shy of today's mile. She is 18lbs higher than at the start of the season but will relish the cut and has run well at this track as a juvenile.
I will kick myself if she defies an 8lbs rise for making all on the Roodeye last month, and I might well save on the filly, but she is deserted by Oisin Murphy. I suggested after SWORD MAKER (Each-Way) (Nap) was beaten over 7f at Newmarket, returning from a 239-day lay-off, last time that we shouldn't lose faith in him stepped back up to a mile, and Oisin Murphy keeps the ride for Saeed bin Suroor.
The selection - who is unproven with ease in the ground, was weak in the market (7/2 from 11/4) and was not knocked about by Murphy, but he stayed on nicely under hands and heels and gave every indication he would benefit from the run and appreciate the additional furlong. His draw in stall ten of thirteen is less than ideal, although I don't know if they will stay far side on the round course or come centre to stands' side, which is the norm on soft ground.
The Entain group were the only firm to price the race up on Saturday morning, and they made Wechadd their 7/2 market leader. He has run well in defeat this term and looks sure to appreciate the ease in the ground, but I cannot desert Sword Maker in an ultra-competitive heat.
Recommendation: Sword Maker (Each-Way) (Nap) - 5/1 with bet365 (4 places)
This is Charlie's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Alan Kelly's pick too.
2:37pm Chepstow - Lion Rose Sivola
The hope is that the oddsmakers put in the unraced Dan Skelton-trained Skibidirizz shorter than he should be, as I am keen on LION ROSE SIVOLA on hurdle debut for Jonjo & AJ O'Neill, who landed the feature race on the opening day of the three-day meeting on Friday.
The selection won his sole point in his native Ireland – runner-up Saint Invictus due to run here on Saturday – and showed plenty of promise in his two Bumpers, finishing second here in November and at Kelso in February, although he was an odds-on shot at the Borders track.
The form of those Bumper runs is not strong – the Kelso winner finished last in the Aintree Bumper – but the grey is more than capable of winning what looks a modest 2m Novice Hurdle.
Recommendation: Lion Rose Sivola - 13/8 with bet365
3:47pm Chepstow - Leader Crik
Matty's Getaway did us a favour when landing the valuable 3m handicap Hurdle on Swinton Gold Cup Day at Haydock from a 5lbs lower mark. On genuine good ground, he would be the one to beat, but the times suggested the ground was no better than soft on Friday, and it is unlikely to dry out too much, although they may well have a fresh piece of ground for the final day.
It is well documented how well the Twiston-Davies horses have started the campaign, and their LEADER CRIK was hugely impressive on his first start for four months when dotting up at Doncaster over 2m3f+ at the end of February, having his first start since wind surgery.
Runner-up to the 127-rated Daylatedollarshort – runs here 4:02pm Saturday – in his sole point in Ireland, he is hardly thrown in from a mark of 128 and has stamina to prove, but he will enjoy the cut in the ground, and I thought he was a horse worth following at Doncaster. An athletic type who will jump a fence sooner rather than later, but he clearly goes well fresh and stable form suggests he will be spot on for his reappearance.
Recommendation: Leader Crik - 11/4 with Ladbrokes
4:22pm Chepstow - Norn Iron
NORN IRON was a revelation when stepped up to 2m4f over fences last season, culminating in a second at the Punchestown Festival. His best form is going right-handed, over further and over the larger obstacles, but he is rated 7lbs lower over timber than fences, and this valuable prize for horses aged eight+ will likely have been the target for some time.
Rail movements make this a 2m1f contest, and Paul O'Brien has the option of going forward although he would like to take a lead. Glengouly made all when scoring at Uttoxeter in a valuable handicap chase over 2m4f when last seen in the spring and he, too, has a lower hurdle mark than his rating over the larger obstacles.
The yard of Faye Bramley did us a favour with Paggane on the flat at Goodwood last week, but the betting suggested there would be other days for their Lord Byron here on Friday. Given a strange ride by Harry Cobden, he was never a factor. Sean Bowen is a positive booking for the 11-year-old.
Recommendation: Norn Iron - 9/2 with Virgin Bet
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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