Charlie McCann's Horse Racing Tips Friday, 9 October - Newmarket, York & Chepstow
Charlie heads to Chepstow on Friday for his best bet
It's a busy day of racing action in the UK and Ireland, and Charlie McCann is here with his exclusive free horse racing tips - only at FreeBets.
2:25pm Newmarket - Pina Sonata
There is rain forecast overnight at Newmarket but not enough to change conditions (3-4mm) which should remain on the fast side of good.
I have no strong opinions about the juvenile races – the Fillies' Mile looks a poor renewal – but am hopeful of a big run from PINA SONATA in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes. At the back of my mind, I do think the James Fanshawe trained filly is best caught fresh and it is less than a month since she ran away with the Group 3 Sceptre takes at Doncaster over this 7f trip, but she should have the race run to suit and she gets the vote.
Witness Stand should ensure a decent gallop although he didn't lead at Redcar when runner up in listed class on Saturday. He is the only confirmed frontrunner in the race although Time To Turn has made all in the past and would be inconvenienced more than most if the race turned tactical.
Pina Sonata's winning time at Doncaster was quicker than the Park Stakes won by More Thunder with Flora Of Bermuda back in second twenty-four hours earlier. Yes, conditions may have quickened up a tad, but the four-year-old has won four of her nine career starts and her Doncaster win last time was her first start at seven furlongs since beaten on racecourse debut.
Flora Of Bermuda heads the market and, while no match for More Thunder at Doncaster, she is a worthy market leader having won three times already this term, but Pina Sonata gets the vote in a competitive renewal.
Recommendation: Pina Sonata - 8/1 with Coral
3:30pm Newmarket - Lord D'Or & Liberate
Devil's Peak did us a favour when scoring cosily at Doncaster last month and a 5lbs rise is fair given the ease of that success. I'm not convinced that was the strongest race run at the Leger meeting, but he is clearly progressing and is a must for any shortlist.
The first four home from an Ascot handicap last month reoppose today and top-weight Archer's Bay – third at Ascot – would be carrying an additional 5lbs if this were not an early closing race having finished second over course and distance to the unbeaten Fortitudine here at the last meeting.
Ryan Moore takes over in the plate and he will have his supporters, but I have backed two against the field including the fourth home at Ascot the maiden LORD D'OR who broke a run of seconds when fourth at Ascot but would have gone very close had he got a clear run under Nicola Currie who keeps the ride.
Currie met trouble in running at the top of the home straight and finished the race as well as anything. He raced in first-time cheekpieces at Ascot and meets the first three on more favourable terms. The jockey has not ridden a winner in a month (25 rides), but she had a brace of seconds at Kempton at the beginning of the week and remains a good jockey capable of doing a low weight. The pair deserve a change of luck.
LIBERATE was intimidated – pinned to the far rail – when second at Yarmouth over 10f on his penultimate start by the now 87-rated Time Thief. He seemed to appreciate the step up to 12f when scoring at Kempton when last seen in August – runner up has scored since and nor rated eighty-two – and the lightly raced Harry Eustace trained colt looks fairly treated off 83 and is open to further improvement after just four career starts.
The Eustace yard's last five runners have finished 2-1-2-5-1 and Luke Morris takes over in the saddle with regular pilot Kaiya Fraser unable to do 8st 6lbs.
Recommendations: Lord D’Or - 12/1 with Ladbrokes & Liberate - 8/1 with Paddy Power
1:30pm York - Beagle Bay
There is plenty of rain forecast at York overnight although I am fed up with Met Office predictions with tracks so far this week consistently getting less than 50% of what was forecast.
Henlein is 2lbs "well-in" having ran a cracker at Ascot a week ago, but he is unproven on soft ground. Spoken Truth can confirm Ripon form with the second Mirsky on 4lbs worse terms having ran well in defeat – given too much to do – at Ayr last time. The more rain the better but the market has this right, and Ralph Beckett has had to be extremely patient with BEAGLE BAY who has been off the track since winning at Sandown on good ground back in June.
The four-year-old has been taken out of two engagements in the interim period on account of the fast ground, but he will be fresher than most, will relish the forecast rain and needs a penalty to stand any chance – currently rated 52 in the weights – of getting into the Balmoral handicap at Ascot next weekend although he would need significant rain to take his chance anyway on Champions Day.
Hills are the only firm with prices at the time of writing. I was hoping for a minimum of 3/1 rather than their quote of 5/2 in this 18-runner handicap.
Recommendation: Beagle Bay - 5/2 with William Hill
I vowed I would back Harper Violet (2:40pm) until she meets with defeat after her 8l romp in a Carlisle maiden last time and I believe she is fairly handicapped from an opening mark of 83, but she is not bred for this 1m6f test on what is likely to be testing ground and she is reluctantly bypassed, given I feel connections have been seduced by the prizemoney.
She remains an exciting prospect.
3:43pm Chepstow - Lord Byron (Nap)
A terrific all-hurdle card at Chepstow and in the feature Grade 2 Persian War Novice Hurdle I hope to see the Faye Bramley-trained four-year-old LORD BYRON (Nap) – still a nine-race maiden – break his duck although he will get further as the season progresses.
The gelded son of Camelot was last seen on the level at Carlisle in the race won by the exciting Harper Violet (see above) last month and should be spot on for this prize. The selection finished second in a 1m6f Navan maiden for Aidan O'Brien and was highly tried over hurdles last term finishing fifth in the Triumph, fourth in the Grade 1 2m4f Aintree Novice Hurdle and runner up to Cheltenham Festival winner King Rasko Grey again over two-and-a-half miles at the Punchestown festival.
There is not as much rain forecast at Chepstow as at York but conditions – described as good to soft on Thursday morning – should have enough cut. Backing a maiden at 9/4 in a Grade 2 won't be everyone's cup of tea, but he merits nap material.
Recommendation: Lord Byron (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
This is Charlie's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Alan Kelly's pick too.
*Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
For more daily previews across every sport, check out our full betting tips hub, and head to our guide on the best betting sites for the latest sign-up offers to back today's selections.
More Horse Racing Tips
Check out more from the Freebets horse racing hub, including tips, stats, market movers and today’s racecards!
