World Cup Group I Predictions & Betting Tips
Will Jackson 
Scott McGlynn
Group I is widely regarded as the toughest group in the tournament.
France, Senegal and Norway all sit inside the world's top 25, and intercontinental playoff winner Iraq, who came through 21 qualifying matches over 28 months, will not be a pushover.
By average FIFA ranking this is comfortably the strongest of the 12 groups in 2026.
Didier Deschamps is leaving the France job after this tournament, and the side will be fully aware of that. Senegal arrive as African heavyweights, while Norway return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 with Erling Haaland in the form of his life.
Iraq end a 40-year absence and bring quiet confidence after their playoff run.
Browse our World Cup 2026 free bets and offers before placing your bets on Group I.
Group I Teams & Form
France
France are clear favourites in their group and one of the top three contenders for the trophy itself. Didier Deschamps has confirmed he will leave after the World Cup, and the squad knows this is his send-off, and they have a proven track record behind them.
Kylian Mbappe leads the attack alongside Ousmane Dembele and a midfield anchored by Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga.
The defensive concerns from Euro 2024 have not entirely disappeared, and they have arguably the toughest group in the tournament. Topping it will be a test, but if they emerge top, the draw opens up nicely and they have the firepower to go a long way.
Senegal
Pape Thiaw's Senegal qualified comfortably from CAF and are arguably the strongest African side in the tournament alongside Morocco. Sadio Mane leads the line, with Ismaila Sarr, Idrissa Gana Gueye and Edouard Mendy all in the squad.
Senegal won AFCON 2021 and reached the Round of 16 in Qatar 2022 - they are not a side to be underestimated.
The opening fixture against France on 16 June is one of the standout group-stage matches of the entire tournament, evoking memories of their famous 2002 victory over Les Bleus, when they were defending champions.
Norway
Norway are at their first World Cup since France 1998 and arrive with arguably the best squad they have ever assembled.
Erling Haaland leads the attack but has good support from Alexander Sorloth and Jorgen Strand Larsen, Martin Odegaard runs midfield, and Stale Solbakken's side qualified comfortably with statement performances including an 11-1 win over Moldova and a 3-0 win in Italy. They beat Italy home and away in qualifying.
The lack of recent World Cup experience is the only concern. The squad quality alone makes them genuine contenders to finish in the top three.
Iraq
Iraq beat Bolivia in the intercontinental playoff final to seal qualification on 31 March 2026. Aymen Hussein scored the winning goal that ended a 40-year wait.
Their squad is mostly domestic-based, though they have a few players in European leagues. They will be heavy underdogs in every match but they are a dangerous side defensively and will not be easily broken down.
Group I Predictions
This is the most competitive group at the top of the tournament. France are favourites but Norway are a credible challenger and Senegal cannot be ruled out. Up to three teams can progress in the new format, which means the genuine risk is finishing fourth - a fate that almost certainly awaits Iraq.
France should still top the group, but given the upsets we have seen in recent World Cups there is a genuine chance they could slip up.
We're backing Norway to take second behind them and Senegal to take third and qualify as one of the eight best third-placed sides. The gap between France and Norway is closer than the prices suggest, and Norway are arguably the value pick to top the group at longer odds.
Iraq are the most likely team to finish bottom. Their defensive structure could pinch a draw against Senegal, but they look short of the quality required to compete with the other two.
Group I Betting Tips
Find more analysis on every fixture in our World Cup 2026 tips hub as the tournament approaches, but here are three top prices and pre-tournament tips to use with our free bet offers.
Tip 1: France to Win Group I
France are favourites and have the squad depth to handle a tough group. Mbappe is in his prime, Deschamps is motivated by his impending departure, and the side has the experience to grind out wins in tournament football. The price is short but the underlying probability fully justifies it.
The Senegal opener is the dangerous fixture - France lost to them in 2002 - but assuming they navigate it, three wins or seven points should be enough.
Tip 2: Norway to Qualify From Group I
Norway's qualifying record was emphatic - they beat Italy home and away, demolished Moldova 11-1 and qualified at a canter. With Haaland in form and Odegaard running midfield, this is a side that can take points off anyone. Backing Norway to qualify in the top three offers genuine value at the price.
Even if they lose to France, wins over Iraq and Senegal should comfortably see them through. I think they could push France quite close and be a dangerous side in the knockouts.
Don't be surprised to hear them touted as a dark horse this year.
Tip 3: France to Win Group I & Norway to Qualify, Iraq not to Qualify
This bet builder backs the two strongest sides in the group to take the top two positions in some order, with France finishing first. Combining the two outcomes gives a more attractive return than backing either as a single, and the legs do not contradict each other.
If you want a third leg, Iraq to finish bottom is a sensible add without disrupting the overall narrative. The squad gulf to the other three sides should make this a reliable banker.
Senegal have a lot of qualities so could make an appealing fourth leg to qualify, but let's stick to three for now.
Market Outlook
France are favourites to win Group I but only narrowly given the strength of the group. Norway are second favourites at a price that looks generous given their squad quality, while Senegal are mid-market and Iraq sit at the longest prices.
The qualification markets are tight on three of the four sides.
You can compare prices for this group across all major betting sites on our World Cup 2026 betting odds page.
Odds are subject to change. 18+ only. Please bet responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.
Group I fixtures
- France vs Senegal - 16 June, 20:00 BST
- Iraq vs Norway - 16 June, 23:00 BST
- France vs Iraq - 22 June, 22:00 BST
- Norway vs Senegal - 23 June, 01:00 BST
- Norway vs France - 26 June, 20:00 BST
- Senegal vs Iraq - 26 June, 20:00 BST
