Arsenal vs Man City Betting Tips, Carabao Cup Predictions, Odds & 17/1 Bet Builder
The League Cup used to be Pep Guardiola’s private property and he’ll be eager to get it back this afternoon at Wembley in a Carabao Cup final against Arsenal that means more than just who collects the first trophy of the season.
Guardiola has held the quirky three-handled trophy aloft five times in the last nine years, a run that includes a 3-0 demolition of Arsenal in the 2018 final that secured the Spaniard his first piece of English silverware.
It was Arsene Wenger’s last final as Arsenal manager and there are no survivors left in the squad now managed by a man who was sat in the City dugout eight years ago.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal is a very different beast to Wenger’s last iteration, one that betting sites are pricing up at 14/1 to complete an unprecedented quadruple.
The League Cup is the first piece of the puzzle, and it's an honour Arsenal are hoping can kickstart a potential cascade of trophies.
Their main adversaries for silverware this season are City, who are the closest contenders in the league, while both teams are still involved in the FA Cup.
Victory on Sunday is a chance to make a big statement, one that could cause a ripple effect for the remainder of the season.
Arsenal vs Man City Tips
Here are our three betting tips and best bets for today’s Carabao Cup final.
Tip 1: Manchester City or draw & under 3.5 goals
Arsenal are a best price of 8/11 on football betting sites to end a six-year wait for a trophy with City marginal underdogs to lift the trophy at 23/20.
It’s not hard to understand why the bookies are siding with a team that’s unbeaten in 14 games and has only lost three times in all competitions this season, but experience in these situations is key.
City have won 14 major honours since these two sides met in the 2018 League Cup final, with Arsenal’s only success under Arteta being the 2020 FA Cup, which was won in an empty Wembley due to Covid restrictions.
City come into this game having won one of their last five games in all competitions. But they’ve played better than results suggest, pushing Real Madrid very hard in midweek, while they had 24 shots to one at West Ham last weekend, yet ended up drawing 1-1.
It was also 1-1 when these sides met in the league back in September and City were the better side that day, frustrating Arsenal, while catching them out on the counter-attack.
Arsenal have looked a little tight in games recently and there’s an argument to be made that they will be the more nervous side in this spot.
City’s attack hasn’t been firing on all cylinders and that’s likely to lead to a tight final, continuing a trend that’s seen 10 of the last 11 Carabao Cup finals produce fewer than four goals.
No team has been runners-up in a League Cup final more often than Arsenal and its to ignore that bit of extra value that comes from going against them in this spot.
Tip 2: Antoine Semenyo first goalscorer
City won’t have one of their two big January signings with Marc Guehi ineligible and his absence is one reason why I didn’t go for City to win outright in the first of my football betting tips.
Guehi joined not long after Antoine Semenyo and both have been big hits. Semenyo has scored seven goals in 16 games for the Cityzens, including one against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup semi-finals.
With Erling Haaland struggling for goals, bettors are advised to look elsewhere for a City goalscorer selection, and Semenyo’s price jumps out.
Guardiola has deployed the former Bournemouth man in various positions across his frontline and it will be interesting to see whether he gets the nod on the left for City, a potential area of weakness for Arsenal if Jurrien Timber isn’t fit for the final.
Semenyo rarely goes a game without having at least one shot on goal and although Arsenal doesn’t concede that many, City are averaging two goals a game in the league so are unlikely to draw a blank.
Tip 3: Rodri over 0.5 shots, over 3.5 total cards & 1-1 correct score
Rodri had five shots against Real Madrid in midweek and while the game script is very different for a final, the Spaniard has been getting into more shooting positions of late.
He’s had 13 shots across his last eight starts and has a decent record of being allowed to shoot against Arsenal, registering an effort on goal in five of his previous eight games.
The odds suggest bookmakers expect both teams to behave themselves today, but it's tough to see fewer than four cards between two streetwise teams, given what's at stake.
Referee Peter Bankes averages close to four cards a game this season and even though officials tend to be more lenient in finals, four of the last six EFL Cup finals have seen at least four cards.
Three of the last four games between these two sides have finished square, including the pair’s 1-1 draw in September.
Score draws have been a semi-regular occurrence for both these sides since the turn of the year and with both teams expected to field second-choice goalkeepers, the price on a 1-1 draw stands out to complete our bet builder.
Arsenal vs Man City Odds
Check out these odds from a selection of our best betting sites for the Carabao Cup final.
Where to watch Arsenal vs Manchester City
At Free Bets, we want to deliver more than just tips, and for those wanting to watch the Carabao Cup final, here's where it is being shown.
TV Channel
In the UK, the main television channels listed for Arsenal vs Manchester City are ITV1, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports Main Event and STV.
Live stream information
The Carabao Cup final can be live-streamed for free via ITVX or STV. Alternatively, if you have a Sky Sports subscription, it can be streamed on NOW TV and Sky Go.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Match Information
Here's everything you need to know before kick-off.
Kick-Off Time
Kick-off for Arsenal vs Manchester City is scheduled for 4:30pm on Sunday afternoon.
Fixture Date
The fixture date for Arsenal vs Manchester City is Sunday, 22 March 2026.
Stadium
The match is being played at Wembley Stadium in London, which means this is a neutral-venue final rather than a home fixture for either team.
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