Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Haydock on Tuesday for his best bet of the day
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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Not the best of weeks in the lead up to the Christmas period with a loss of -£10.89.
Impose Toi advertised his Stayers Hurdle claims with a victory in Saturday’s Long Walk Hurdle and still looks decent value at the 8/1 currently available with bet365.
Held-up right at the back in a slowly run race, Saturday’s nap Mondo Man was always going to struggle in an effort to make up the ground, but there is a decent handicap to be won with Gary & Josh Moore’s charge this season.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 21 December: -£10.89
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£45.02
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£531.01
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 30 December
After some fabulous jumps action over the Christmas period, Tuesday afternoon’s fare is of a more modest variety.
The cards at Haydock Park and Taunton are due to take place on good ground, with some soft patches at the Merseyside racecourse.
12:35pm Haydock - Clondaw Royale
Winner of this race 12 months ago off a 6lb higher mark and with today’s rider Benjamin Macey in the saddle for this conditional jockeys’ handicap, it is hard to fancy the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-trained CLONDAW ROYALE based on the grey’s three disappointing efforts during the summer at Warwick, Uttoxeter and Worcester.
I expect to see a much better effort from the Jukebox Jury gelding however, as the eight-year-old ran well on his only other visit to Haydock when finishing 4th of 11 in a Go North Cab On Target Qualifier earlier in the year, taking up the running 2 out only to weaken on the run-in.
The O’Neill stable were struggling to hit form until just recently but are currently enjoying a strike-rate of 25% with 8 winners from 32 runners in the last fortnight. In a race which shouldn’t take too much winning, Clondaw Royale is a well-handicapped horse at his best and can prevent James Owen’s Nazare from landing a hat-trick of victories following successes in modest affairs at Market Rasen and Southwell.
Recommendation: Clondaw Royale - 9/2 with bet365
3:40pm Haydock - Brentford Hope (Nap)
Neil Mulholland’s Bucephalus was in good form earlier in the year when winning races at Newbury and Chepstow with today’s 7lb claimer Harriet Tucker in the saddle. The eight-year-old has been beaten a total of 135 lengths on both starts this season however and is best watched at the moment. Fergal O’Brien’s Serious Challenge was quietly fancied when pulled-up in Cheltenham’s Greatwood Hurdle last time and this three-time hurdle winner should appreciate this drop in class.
While Johnathan Burke’s mount is greatly respected, I think this Class 3 handicap provides a good opportunity for Harry Derham’s top weight BRENTFORD HOPE (Nap) to record a 6th success over hurdles following a try over the bigger obstacles. Not disgraced in good company over fences at Cheltenham and Exeter, the Camelot gelding returned to hurdles at Cheltenham earlier this month when finishing a never-nearer sixth, beaten just under 7 lengths.
7lb Claimer Megan Fox was in the saddle for the first time at Prestbury Park and retains the ride, the only other time the strong-travelling Brentford Hope was partnered by a claimer came with a wide-margin victory at Newbury two years ago with Alice Sevens on board. Providing the ground does not dry out significantly at the Merseyside track, I expect Brentford Hope to outclass his rivals.
Recommendation: Brentford Hope (Nap) - 15/8 with bet365
3:55pm Taunton - Border Gem (Each-Way)
Paul Nicholls’ top weight Zaochen Enki has disappointed on both starts this season and the Wincanton maiden hurdle winner of back in March is best watched at the moment. Of more interest is Stuart Kittow’s Cornish Storm who split subsequent winners Surrey Lord and Across Earth when runner-up in a conditional jockeys’ hurdle at Kempton last month.
Fancied to go one better at Wincanton two weeks ago, the six-year-old lost all chance when stumbling badly at the 5th hurdle and almost falling before dropping out of contention. It is easy to put a line through that performance and a much better effort is expected from the mount of 3lb claimer Oscar Palmer.
Syd Hosie’s Dirty Den would have a big chance based on decent runs at Chepstow and Exeter this season, but will need to put a below-par effort at Wincanton behind him if he is to defy a career-high mark of 108. The Jeremy Scott stable had a couple of winners on Chepstow’s Welsh Grand National card on Saturday and in receipt of plenty of weight from her 7 rivals, I expect a big run from his unexposed mare BORDER GEM (Each-Way).
No match for the 116-rated St Irene when runner-up in a Wincanton maiden last month on just her third start over hurdles, Chad Bament’s mount finished fourth on her handicap debut on that course two weeks ago after being hampered by a faller 2 out. The daughter of Gemix should be capable of going close in a race of this nature off a mark of 96.
Recommendation: Border Gem (Each-Way) - 11/2 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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