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Only another 359 days to the Cheltenham Festival, last week’s four days at Prestbury Park once again proving memorable for both the right and wrong reasons. The playground spat between Nico de Boinville and amateur Declan Queally was the headline act in the embarrassment stakes, while the less said about a plethora of farcical starts the better.
The most memorable moments, however, were of the equine variety, in particular Gaelic Warrior’s silky-smooth Gold Cup victory, while on a personal level, Il Etait Temps produced the Champion Chase performance I was both expecting and hoping for in equal measures. With those memories fresh in the mind, 359 days seems a very long time to wait for the next instalment. Never mind, only a couple of weeks before the start of the turf flat season?
From a betting perspective, Wednesday was the undoubted highlight, with winners at 5/1, 15/2 and 11/1. It was a case of what might have been following the fall (stumble) of The Yellow Clay three-out in the BetMGM Gold Cup when coming to join eventual (easy) winner Jingko Blue. The possible result of my each-way accumulator on the four is a mystery that will forever remain a matter of conjecture. After going into Thursday with a profit of over £25, we managed to give most of it back, Cheltenham Festival week ending with a profit of +£8.70.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 15 March: +£8.70
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£78.87
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£579.53
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 21 March
The ITV Racing cameras will be covering a total of 10 races on Saturday afternoon, five from Newbury, four from Kelso and one from Bangor-On-Dee.
The action starts at the Borders’ racecourse with a Listed mares’ hurdle at 1:00pm and concludes at 3:35pm with Newbury’s valuable Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper.
1:00pm Kelso - Sunset Marquesa
I’m not sure Jamie Snowden’s Hollygrove Cha Cha, a best priced 5/2 to take this Listed mares’ hurdle, will be ideally suited by the drying ground at the Borders racecourse, in which case it could be worth taking a chance on the Joe Tizzard-trained SUNSET MARQUESA at the 10/1 currently available with Paddy Power.
Out of her depth when falling in last week’s Grade 1 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle at the festival, the daughter of Walk In The Park may improve for her first try at this kind of distance and in a race which should be run to suit.
Recommendation: Sunset Marquesa - 10/1 with Paddy Power
1:15pm Newbury - Lisbane Park
Beaten a nose on heavy ground at Exeter last time, Joe Tizzard’s LISBANE PARK will appreciate today’s less testing conditions and can go one better. Third in a novices’ handicap at Windsor of his penultimate start, the form of which received a boost with the winner Scorpio Rising going on to win a Premier Handicap at Sandown earlier in the month, Brendan Powell’s mount looks the value bet at 11/4 to beat favourite Kocktail Bleu in Newbury’s opener.
Recommendation: Lisbane Park - 11/4 with bet365
1:30pm Kelso - Wasthatok (Each-Way)
A maximum field of 16 for this Go North Cab On Target Series Final, in which my fancy WASTHATOK (Each-Way) just manages to sneak into the race off bottom weight. The mount of Joe Williamson was the easy winner of a qualifier at Newcastle in November, the eight-year-old quickening clear of his 8 rivals after travelling smoothly throughout the race.
While the mount Nelson gelding has failed to add to that victory in three subsequent starts over timber (once over fences when unseating his rider), Wasthatok won a flat handicap on Wolverhampton's all-weather track last week and makes plenty of appeal (each-way) at 18/1 and with 5 places available.
Recommendation: Wasthatok (Each-Way) - 18/1 with bet365 (5 places)
1:50pm Newbury - Grand Vendetta
On open novices’ handicap hurdle in which it could be worth taking a chance on Paul Nicholls’ handicap debutante GRAND VENDETTA. The Flemensfirth gelding will be having just his third start over hurdles and first since beating Olly Murphy’s Wandering Ego on heavy ground at Taunton last month. That horse ran out a comfortable winner at Huntingdon on Wednesday, making Harry Cobden’s mount potentially well-treated off an opening mark of 120.
Recommendation: Grand Vendetta - 6/1 with BetVictor
2:10pm Kelso - Khrisma (Nap)
Despite having to concede plenty of weight to her 15 rivals in this Herring Queen Series Final, I expect the Nicky Henderson-trained and J P McManus-owned KHRISMA (Nap) to outclass the opposition in the most valuable race on Kelso’s Go North Series Final’s card.
Rated 128, Nico De Boinville’s mount has only managed to win two of her five starts for the Seven Barrows team since coming from France in October 2024, the most recent when recording a comfortable victory over a couple of decent mares at Market Rasen last month.
However, the daughter of Pastorius’s best effort to date probably came at last year’s Punchestown Festival when beaten three quarter of a length by Gordon Elliott’s Casheldale Lad (rated 152) with the third horse some 16 lengths away in a field of 12. Despite having 12st to carry, a repeat of that level of form would make Khrisma very hard to beat.
Recommendation: Khrisma (Nap) - 6/4 with Coral
2:25pm Newbury - Scarface (Each-Way)
After doing us a favour when winning at odds over 20/1 on this course three weeks ago, I am loath to desert Dan Skelton's Newbury specialist Heltenham in this valuable 2m 4f handicap chase. But racing off a 6lb higher mark, the nine-year-old is reluctantly passed over in favour of Joe Tizzard’s SCARFACE (Each-Way).
Freddie Gingell’s mount has a decent record at Newbury and beat Heltenham by over three lengths at Newton Abbot last April. Now 3lb better off with Harry Sketon’s mount, Scarface looks fair value at odds of 17/2 to at least make the frame.
Recommendation: Scarface (Each-Way) - 17/2 with William Hill (3 places)
2:40pm Kelso - Moon Phases (Each-Way)
The Russell/Scudamore stable rarely leave the Borders racecourse empty handed, one of their best chances in the handicaps coming via the seven-year-old gelding MOON PHASES (Each-Way) in this Go North Forgive ‘N’ Forget Series Final.
This will be just the fourth start over fences for Derek Fox’s mount who ran well over today’s course and distance last month until the combination of a couple of late mistakes on testing ground took their toll. With conditions more suitable, I expect the lightly-raced seven-year-old to make the frame at the very least.
Recommendation: Moon Phases (Each-Way) - 8/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
3:00pm Newbury - Strong Run
This valuable Grade 2 mares’ novices’ hurdle (limited handicap) has attracted a competitive field of 16, headed by Alan King’s Charisma Cat, last seen finishing creditable second to Nicky Henderson’ promising Khrisma in a qualifier at Market Rasen with fellow rivals Watamu and Getrawhisky back in third and fourth places respectively.
On today’s terms there should be little between the three mares. However, the vote goes to Fergal O’Brien’s STRONG RUN, the mount of Jonathan Burke, the same combination which proved successful with Siog Geal 12 months ago. Sixth in a Grade 2 Bumper at Aintree’s Grand National meeting last year, the seven-year-old has shown plenty of promise in her three starts over hurdles, including a victory at Southwell in December and looks fairly treated off an opening mark of 116.
Recommendation: Strong Run - 5/1 with Betfred
3:20pm Bangor - Knickerbockerglory
Dan Skelton is responsible for both the top and bottom weights in this Class 2 handicap hurdle, with the betting suggesting that the latter, In The Age, is the stable’s number one hope in the hands of jockey Charlie Todd. Stablemate KNICKERBOCKERGLORY is due to be partnered by 7lb claiming conditional Harry Atkins, and at the 15/2 currently available with William Hill, the 10-year-old gets the vote.
The son of Fame And Glory has some excellent efforts to his name in big field handicaps, including when beaten less than two lengths in last year’s Imperial Cup at Sandown. The selection probably did too much when weakening out of contention in a valuable handicap at Windsor on his most recent start but had previously finished a creditable second off today's mark of 138 at Sandown in December.
Recommendation: Knickerbockerglory - 15/2 with William Hill
3:35pm Newbury - Diamond Street
This £100k Bumper makes only limited appeal as a betting medium, but it was hard not to have been impressed with the debut victory of the Dan Skelton-trained DIAMOND STREET at Doncaster two months ago. While it is hard to gauge the strength of that 10 length success, the Diamond Boy gelding could not have won more easily and clearly looks a smart prospect for the future.
Recommendation: Diamond Street - 7/2 with Coral
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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