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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
After an excellent week ending Sunday 3rd May, we failed to get the rub of the green over the next seven days with no less than 8 seconds, four of which were beaten by half a length or less.
We ended the week with a loss of -£13.92.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 10 May: -£13.92
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£91.14
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£591.80
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 14 May
York's Dante Stakes has proved a significant trial for next month's Epsom Derby in recent years, and that may well be the case once again as a field of eight promising middle-distance prospects are set to go to post for the extended 1m 2f contest at 4:05pm on the Knavesmire.
2:55pm York - Sea Force
Third, beaten less than two lengths behind fellow rival Mirsky in the Thirsk Hunt Cup earlier in the month, William Haggas’s SEA FORCE will be fancied to reverse that form with David O’Meara’a charge on 2lb better terms considering the troubled passage encountered by the Sea The Stars gelding at the North Yorkshire racecourse.
After failing to get a clear run approaching the final furlong, Sea Force did well to finish as close as he did considering the four-year-old was also hampered in the closing stages of that valuable one mile contest.
Beaten just over a length when sixth in the 17-runner Sky Bet Mile (Heritage Handicap) over today’s course and distance at the Ebor meeting, Tom Marquand’s mount should take plenty of beating in this £75k Hambleton Handicap with a bit more luck on this occasion from his draw in stall 3.
A short head in front of Sea Force at York last August was Andrew Balding’s Point Of Contact, who meets the selection on 6lb better terms today and is one of several potential dangers along with Simon & Ed Crisford’s Shout, a well backed favourite when 13th in Newbury’s Spring Cup on his most recent start.
Recommendation: Sea Force - 4/1 with bet365
3:30pm York - See The Fire (Nap)
Karl Burke’s multiple Group 1 winner Fallen Angel has to concede 3lb to her four rivals in this Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes, the daughter of Too Darn Hot, on her first start for seven months, also probably better under slightly softer conditions.
While James Doyle’s mount is respected, along with Godolphin’s globetrotting mare Diamond Rain, a repeat of See The Fire’s demolition job in this race 12 months ago would make Oisin Murphy’s mount very hard to beat.
While the five-year-old mare failed to add to that victory in five subsequent starts last season, SEE THE FIRE (Nap) was far from disgraced in Group 1 company, in particular when fourth behind Ombudsman in York’s Juddmonte International prior to losing out by a short neck in Longchamp’s Prix de L’Opera at the Arc meeting.
The daughter of Sea The Stars had a good prep for today’s race with a victory in last month’s Listed Nottinghamshire Oaks, and while unlikely to repeat last year’s winning distance of 12 lengths, is fancied to record back-to-back successes in this £165k Al Basti Equiworld-sponsored contest.
Recommendation: See The Fire (Nap) - 5/4 with Betfred
4:05pm York - Guildmaster (Each-Way)
To say that the Ballydoyle stable of Aidan O’Brien have a stranglehold on the outcome of this year's Betfred Derby would be an understatement, the powerful enterprise currently responsible for five of the first six horses in the betting for the great race, including clear favourite Benevenuto Cellini.
At the moment, the main opposition to the Ballydoyle battalion would appear to be Saturday’s Lingfield Derby Trial winner Maltese Cross. That horse's trainer, William Haggas, could add another string to his Derby bow should Morshdi win this significant trial, as opposed to the Aidan O'Brien duo of Christmas Day and Action.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby and the John & Thady Gosden stable each throw two into the mix in an effort to have a credible contender for the Epsom classic. In what looks to be an open Dante, I think it could be worth taking a chance on the outsider of the field, GUILDMASTER (Each-Way) (also owned by Godolphin), from the Gosden stable, along with Wise Prince.
An impressive winner on Lingfield’s all-weather surface on his debut towards the end of last year, the son of Teofilo failed to act on Newmarket's undulations when third on that course over 1m 2f on his reappearance. James Doyle's mount deserves another chance on a course which will suit the colt much better.
Recommendation: Guildmaster (Each-Way) - 18/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
4:40pm York - Dickensian (Each-Way)
The betting for this Listed three-year-old contest run over the minimum trip is headed by James Owen's Aspect Island and Revival Power from the Tim Easterby stable, third and fifth respectively in last season's Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket. The two horses are closely matched, while David O’Meara's Manatee Mehmas could not have been more impressive in winning a minor contest on his racecourse debut at Doncaster last month.
While all three horses have claims, I would rather back Kevin Ryan's DICKENSIAN (Each-Way) at a double-figure price. Runner-up in last season's 23-runner Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, Shane Grey's mount ran well in defeat on his three subsequent starts, including when third, beaten two and a half lengths, behind Revival Power in the Roses Stakes over today's course and distance at The Ebor meeting.
Now 5lb better off with David Allan's mount, Dickensian is fancied to make the frame at the very least in a race which has been the colt’s early season target for some time.
Recommendation: Dickensian (Each-Way) - 10/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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