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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 22 November
The ITV Racing cameras will be covering races from Haydock Park, Ascot and Punchestown on Saturday afternoon.
The feature race is the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at 3:00pm, one of five races due to be shown from the Merseyside racecourse.
1:15pm Haydock - Cormier (Each-Way)
Runner-up in valuable handicaps at Ascot, Windsor and Ayr last season when trained by Paul Nicholls, the five-year-old Kabral Du Mathan makes his debut for the Skelton team in this 2m 3f handicap and the Pastorius gelding would certainly not be winning out of turn. Harry Skelton’s mount is now 17lb higher than when winning a handicap at Kempton around this time last year however, and at a best price 2/1 is worth taking on with the race-fit CORMIER (Each-Way) from the Brian Ellison stable.
The dual purpose performer is 4 from 16 over hurdles, along with an excellent 7th of 26 behind State Man in the 2022 County Hurdle off a mark of 139. Craig Nichol’s mount is now rated some 18lb lower and showed his wellbeing with a victory on the flat at Nottingham 4 weeks ago.
Recommendation: Cormier (Each-Way) - 16/1 with BetGoodwin (3 places)
1:30pm Ascot - Il Est Francais (Nap)
One of the most anticipated races of the season so far, featuring top French chaser IL EST FRANCAIS (Nap) and Paul Nicholls’ Pic D’orhy, two horses who like nothing better than to dictate matters from the front.
Riders of the other three talented contenders - Jango Baie, Gidleigh Park and Master Chewy - may well play the waiting game in the hope that the two pacesetters will cut each other's throat. I'm convinced Il Est Francais is much happier going right-handed, as his two excellent efforts at Kempton would suggest.
In receipt of 6lb from Harry Cobden’s mount, and over a trip which should suit, I expect Tom George's charge to enhance his King George prospects with a comprehensive victory in this Grade 2 contest.
Recommendation: Il Est Francais (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
1:50pm Haydock - Iroko
Beaten half a length by Trelawne in this race 12 months ago, the Greenall/Guerriero-trained IROKO failed to get his head in front in five attempts last season. That record does not do justice to the J P McManus-owned seven-year-old, who ended the campaign with an excellent fourth place finish as the 13/2 favourite behind Nick Rockett in the Grand National at Aintree.
In receipt of 3lb and with a good record fresh, Jonjo O’Neill Jr’s mount just gets the vote over Ben Pauling’s exciting chasing prospect The Jukebox Man, unbeaten on both of his starts over fences since finishing second in Grade 1 staying hurdles at Cheltenham and Aintree last year.
Recommendation: Iroko - 3/1 with William Hill
2:10pm Punchestown - Lossiemouth
It will be interesting to see how J P McManus’s Irancy gets on following his impressive win in the Grade 1 KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. This is all about Irancy’s stablemate LOSSIEMOUTH however, the talented mare 11 from 14 over hurdles and yet to taste defeat following a break of 53 days or more.
With the 7lb mares’ allowance, Paul Townsend's mount should record her 12th success over hurdles in a race which is of little interest from a betting perspective.
Recommendation: Lossiemouth - 4/9 with bet365
2:25pm Haydock - Navajo Indy (Each-Way)
It's easy to make a case out for many of the 17 runners in this £100k Premier Handicap, the vote going to NAVAJO INDY (Each-Way) from the in-form stable of Tom Symonds. Yet to finish out of the first 4 in his 9 starts over hurdles, including 3 victories, Gavin Sheehan’s mount is a victim of his own consistency having gone from a mark of 116 to today’s rating of 132.
Third behind Joyeuse in the valuable William Hill Hurdle on his final outing of last season, the Nathaniel gelding made a pleasing reappearance when second of 20 at Cheltenham last month. With 5 places available, this ultra-consistent hurdler can make the frame at the very least at a double-figure price.
Recommendation: Navajo Indy (Each-Way) - 11/1 with BetVictor (5 places)
2:40pm Ascot - Wodhooh
The only defeat in 8 starts over hurdles by the Gordon Elliott-trained WODHOOH came at the hands of Lossiemouth in the Grade 1 William Hill Aintree Hurdle back in April, a race in which Constitution Hill fell 2 out when holding every chance. Two and three quarters of a length behind Willie Mullins star mare was still some effort by Danny Gilligan’s mount, who is fancied to get back to winning ways in receipt of weight from her 8 rivals.
The race for second place looks a lot more open, with Ascot specialist Altobelli possibly the each-way alternative to the market leader.
Recommendation: Wodhooh - 11/8 with Paddy Power
3:00pm Haydock - Grey Dawning
Winner of the race in both 2023 and 2024, Royal Pagaille’s tremendous early record at Haydock Park (1-1-2-1-1-1) took a couple of knocks earlier this year when Venetia Williams’ charge was pulled-up in the Peter Marsh before finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Grand National Trial in February. Charlie Deutsch’s mount ended last seen with comprehensive defeats in the Gold Cup and Grand National and at the age of 11 is unlikely to record a hat-trick of wins in this Grade 1 contest.
GREY DAWNING looked all over the winner when taking over from Royal Pagaille approaching the final fence in last year’s race, only to be outstayed on the long run-in, mainly down to the soft conditions. Twelve months later the Skelton’s have a score to settle, and with the stable in such good form, I expect last year’s placings to be reversed.
This is far from a two-horse race however, and it will be fascinating to see how Haiti Couleurs and Handstand cope with their first venture into the big league.
Recommendation: Grey Dawning - 11/10 with Betfred
3:15pm Ascot - Martator (Each-Way)
Three quarters of a length behind winner Teddy Boy in a valuable Premier Handicap over today’s course and distance earlier in the month, Anthony Honeyball’s Gabriel’s Getaway may be capable of overturning that form on 2lb better terms with Harry Derham’s charge this afternoon.
While the Venetia Williams stable has yet to hit form so far this season, she has an excellent record at this meeting and off a mark 1lb lower than when winning this race by 11 lengths 12 months ago, her MARTATOR (Each-Way) is fancied to make it four wins from five starts at the Berkshire racecourse.
Talented 5lb claimer Ned Fox takes the ride once again on the eight-year-old son of Martaline, who will strip fitter for his first run of the season in Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup of two weeks ago.
Recommendation: Martator (Each-Way) - 13/2 with William Hill (3 places)
3:35pm Haydock - Major Fortune (Each-Way)
A wide-open staying handicap chase to end Haydock’s card, in which Sam Thomas’s unexposed Shomen Uchi could well prove the one to beat. Any significant market support should be taken seriously. I thought Hudson De Grugy needed his run at Hexham recently on his first start for trainer Sam England and it would be no surprise to see Gavin Sheehan’s mount go well at a big price.
The Skelton stable can do little wrong at the moment however and I expect Harry’s mount MAJOR FORTUNE (Each-Way) to improve significantly on his run at Cheltenham last month when not beaten far in fourth place following a break of 188 days. Yet to get his head in from over fences, the five-year-old recorded a five-timer over hurdles, starting with a victory at Market Rasen on Boxing Day 2023, and will be more at home over today’s extended 3m 1f trip as opposed to the 2m 4f encountered at Prestbury Park on his reappearance.
Recommendation: Major Fortune (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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