Alan Kelly’s Tips
Horse racing tips for all seven live races on ITV Racing on Saturday
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Alan Kelly’s Tips for Saturday, August 23rd
ITV Racing will be covering seven races on Saturday afternoon, five from the final day of York's Ebor Festival along with two from Goodwood.
The Sky Bet sponsored Heritage Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 22 runners and gets underway at 3:35pm.
Nap of the Day - Rosallion (3:00pm York)
Unlucky not to be on a hat-trick going into today’s Group 1 contest, Richard Hannon’s top class colt can make it third time lucky with a well-deserved victory in this City Of York Stakes.
1:50pm York - King’s Gambit
It will be interesting if trainer William Haggas decides to strike while the iron is hot with Thursday’s Clipper (Heritage Handicap) winner Bullet Point. The Advertise gelding is definitely worth a try at Group level, although if taking part, Tom Marquand’s mount may have his work cut out to get the better of Wathnan Racing’s KING'S GAMBIT.
The son of Saxon Warrior has been expensive to follow since winning Newbury’s London Gold Cup last May but has run well on all three previous visits to the Knavesmire, the most recent when finishing a half length third behind Los Angeles and Illinois in last year’s Great Voltigeur. That performance sets a clear standard for this Group 3 contest. A close third behind Haatem in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot on his most recent start, King’s Gambit can take this with a similar effort.
Recommendation: - King’s Gambit - 9/4 with Betfred
2:05pm Goodwood - Darkness (Each-Way)
All 12 runners can be fancied on one piece of form or another for this £100k handicap run over 7f, the vote going to Mark Winn’s mount DARKNESS (Each-Way), one of two runners for the David O’Meara stable, the other being Coral Golden Mile winner Rhoscolyn.
Fourth in last year’s Golden Mile off a mark of 91, the Siyouni gelding has dropped to a rating of 88, just 1lb higher than when winning over today’s trip at Thirsk back in May. An unlucky fourth on that course earlier this month, Darkness can go close with a clearer passage on this occasion.
Recommendation: Darkness (Each-Way) - 9/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
2:25pm York - Daiquiri Bay (Each-Way)
Plenty of 12 contenders for this three-year-old stamina test are open to plenty more improvement, in particular Juddmonte’s Tarriance, Golden Handshake from the William Haggas stable and the Wathnan Racing owned maiden Sea Of Kings. However, the vote goes to the Alan King-trained DAIQUIRI BAY (Each-Way).
A creditable eighth behind subsequent Group 3 winner Merchant and Irish Derby runner-up Serious Contender in the King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) at the royal meeting, Rossa Ryan’s mount went on to finish 4th of 18 in the 1m 2f Coral Kincsem Handicap at Glorious Goodwood.
The New Bay colt looks to be crying out for today’s step-up in trip and can make the frame at the very least with most bookmakers going 4 places.
Recommendation: Daiquiri Bay (Each-Way) - 8/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
2:40pm Goodwood - Prince Of The Seas
Unplaced in Derby trials at Epsom and Lingfield earlier in the season, Ralph Beckett’s PRINCE OF THE SEAS made little impact on his handicap debut when failing to beat a single rival in a valuable 1m 6f contest at Haydock last month. The son of Sea The Stars fared much better at last week’s Shergar Cup meeting however, the unexposed gelding just losing out in the closing stages to the William Haggas-trained favourite Tenability, who was completing a hat-trick of victories.
Still very much a work in progress, it will be disappointing if Prince Of Seas is not capable of taking this 1m 4f handicap off a mark of 92, especially with the 5lb claim of apprentice Jack Dace.
Recommendation: - Prince Of The Seas - 5/6 with bet365
3:00pm York - Rosallion (Nap)
Qirat and ROSALLION (Nap), first and second respectively in last month’s Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, take each other on once again in this Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (upgraded to Group 1 level). The Juddmonte contender is unlikely to be handed the same kind of advantage he enjoyed at the West Sussex track, especially with the likes of Audience and Quinault sure to up with the pace.
Andrew Balding’s Never So Brave is finally realising the potential he showed for Sir Michael Stoute following a couple of victories at Ascot, the second coming in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. French challenger Maranoa Charlie is interesting after failing narrowly to win last month’s Prix Jean Prat. However, providing he has fully recovered from last week’s minor setback, Richard Hannon’s Rosallion can open his account for the season at the fourth attempt.
Last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes winner would have been on a hat-trick going into today’s race granted better luck, Sean Levey’s mount arguably the moral winner of his last two starts, Royal Ascot’s Queen Anne and Goodwood’s Sussex Stakes. In a race sure to be run at a decent pace, there should be no excuses for the Blue Point colt this time.
Recommendation: - Rosallion (Nap) - 6/4 with bet365
3:35pm York - Hipop De Loire & Shadow Dance (Each-Way)
Desperately unlucky when finishing fifth in this race 12 months ago after being repeatedly denied a clear run, it is no surprise to see Willie Mullins’ ex French-trained HIPOP DE LOIRE no bigger than 7/2 to provide the Closutton handler with a third victory in the race following those of Sesenta in 2009 and Absurde two years ago.
The mount of Colin Keane has clearly been trained with a repeat bid in mind, the eight-year-old successful in a maiden hurdle at the Galway Festival on his most recent start. Along with the market leader, the other horse I like is the Roger Varian-trained SHADOW DANCE (Each-Way), the mount of Silvestre De Souza.
Winner of the Sky Bet Handicap at this meeting 12 months ago, the grey son of Almanzor made his reappearance over an inadequate trip of 1m 2f at Glorious Goodwood last month, the gelding staying-on nicely at the finish after encountering a far from trouble-free passage. The five-year-old can prove best of the home defence and is worth a bet (each-way) at a double-figure price.
Recommendations: - Hipop De Loire - 3/1 with Betfred & Shadow Dance (Each-Way) - 12/1 with Coral (5 places)
4:10pm York - Jubilee Walk (Each-Way)
After winning major handicaps at Ascot and Goodwood, it would be no surprise to see Richard Spencer’s Two Tribes defy top weight in this £120k Heritage Handicap run over 6f. 8lb higher than when winning the Stewards’ Cup last time, Ryan Moore’s mount will need to improve yet again if he is going to land the hat-trick off a career-high mark of 103.
In a race which may be dominated by horses drawn low, preference is for the James Ferguson-trained JUBILEE WALK (Each-Way) and jockey William Buick. The four-year-old (drawn 4) won a handicap on this course at last year’s Dante meeting, after which the Study Of man gelding had a spell in Bahrain before returning to this country two months ago when finishing third at Chester.
Well supported for a 19-runner handicap over today’s course and distance last month, Jubilee Walk lost out by a neck to favourite Elmonjed with several of today’s field behind. Racing off a 1lb higher mark, the selection looks sure to be competitive in this wide-open sprint handicap.
Recommendation: - Jubilee Walk (Each-Way) - 13/2 with Paddy Power (5 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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