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An excellent week ending Saturday 14th February with five winning days out of six, along with successful naps at 8/1, 3/1, and 4/6. The three losing naps all pulled-up for one reason or another, the most disappointing being that of Myretown in Haydock’s Grand National Trial on Saturday.
The Russell/Scudamore-trained gelding weakened so quickly when headed that connections must be scratching their heads regarding last year’s impressive Ultima winner.
To rub salt into the wound, Grand Geste, our nap when pulled-up in last month’s Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster, showed his true form at the Merseyside racecourse with a comfortable victory.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 15 February: +£19.92
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£40.13
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£540.79
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 20 February
The waiting (fiasco) is finally over and Constitution Hill ‘will’ be allowed to run at Southwell on Friday evening.
To be honest, I don't know what to expect from Nicky Henderson's hurdling superstar, but anyone taking odds of 4/6 about a nine-year-old having his first run on the flat, win or lose, would give Sigmund Freud plenty to think about.
However, I will watch the race with great interest, although without any financial involvement.
From a betting perspective, the British jumps cards at Exeter, Warwick and Ffos Las are of more interest,
3:05pm Warwick - Alcedo
With the Venetia Williams stable finally coming good over the last week or so following a bit of a lean spell, I will be disappointed if her top weight ALCEDO is unable to provide another welcome winner for the 2009 Grand National-winning trainer, courtesy of a third success over fences in this very ‘winnable’ Class 3 handicap.
The form of Alcedo November victory over today’s 2m 4f trip at Newcastle could hardly have worked out much better, with nose runner-up Grand Geste going on to claim the Tommy Whittle and Grand National Trial at Haydock Park. Now rated 135, Alcedo gave the Parkinson/Smith runner 8lb and a narrow beating at the north-east racecourse.
Off a mark of 127, and with the 3lb claim of jockey Ned Fox, this is Alcedo’s race to lose. The main danger is likely to come in the shape of Clive Boultbee-Brooks’ Joker De Mai, who did well to finish a close third at Ludlow last time after being badly hampered by the pulling-up Pepe Le Moko during the race.
Recommendation: Alcedo - 11/8 with bet365
3:45pm Exeter - Catch Catchfire
Several of the 8 contenders for this Devon National can be ruled out on one of two scores, the forecast heavy ground or the distance of this extreme stamina test. Richard Bandey’s Icaque de L’Isle has never raced beyond 3m over fences, while Ryan Potter’s Ithaka has been campaigned almost exclusively on good or good to soft ground.
There are no such doubts regarding the Sam Thomas-trained Jubilee Express (declared here but still with an entry in Saturday’s more valuable Eider Chase at Newcastle), runner-up to Val Dancer in the 2024 Welsh Grand National prior to being pulled-up in the latest renewal of the Coral-sponsored marathon over Christmas, a below-par performance put down to the ground not being soft enough. No excuses here then!
While the class of Dylan Johnston’s mount may well prevail with conditions to suit, slight preference is for Ian Williams’ CATCH CATCHFIRE in receipt of 17lb from Jubilee Express. Two from 7 over fences, I thought Charlie Todd’s mount was unlucky not to have won Lingfield’s 3m 5f Surrey National on his most recent start.
After making much of the running, a mistake at the final fence may have proved the difference between winning and finishing a neck second behind Nick Gifford’s Aworkinprogress, the pair well clear of the rest of the field. The latter, winner of 6 of his last 7 starts, currently heads the betting for Newcastle’s stamina test in 24 hours time.
Still only a seven-year-old, we have yet to see the best of the son of Dartmouth, who looks sure to go close if able to reproduce the form of that Lingfield effort.
Recommendation: Catch Catchfire - 3/1 with bet365
3:52pm Ffos Las - Cumhacht (Each-Way)
Nick Scholfield’s Morning Mayhem is likely to be all the race to take this 2m handicap hurdle under a 7lb penalty for the five-year-old’s comfortable victory at Fakenham last week, the 5lb claim of today’s rider Toby McCain-Mitchell negating the extra weight somewhat.
While there are no prices available as I write, I would rather back the Rebecca Curtis-trained CUMHACHT (Each-Way) with champion jockey Sean Bowen taking over from 5lb claimer Jamie Brace in the saddle. Runner-up on his last two visits to the Welsh racecourse, off marks of 92 and 89, the latter under similar conditions to that of today, the eight-year-old should appreciate the return to Ffos Las following a couple of below-par efforts at Doncaster (didn’t stay) and Windsor (could never get competitive after being held up).
Recommendation: Cumhacht (Each-Way) - 8/1 with bet365 (3 places)
4:05pm Warwick - Harry Bright (Nap)
After showing some promise on his first two starts in handicap company, when 5th of 14 at Wincanton before beating all bar Lucy Wadham’s Castanea Breeze at Market Rasen in early December, it was no great surprise to see Dan Skelton’s HARRY BRIGHT (Nap) going off a well-supported 2/1 favourite to open his account over hurdles on the final day of last year on this course.
As it turned out, the step-up to 3m 2f looked to stretch the stamina of the Milan gelding, who weakened into fourth place late-on after holding every chance in that Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Qualifier. Back down to a more suitable 2m 3f for this Class 5 contest, Harry Skelton’s mount will have no excuses in a race which should take little winning.
Olly Murphy’s Up To Trix and Romany King from the Charlie Longsdon stable are both making their handicap debuts but have shown very little over the smaller obstacles to date, although the betting is likely to be the best guide to the pair’s chances. Which leaves Rob Summers’ Minella Double as the one most likely to follow Harry Bright home, although the mount of 5lb claimer Beau Morgan has not been seen since finishing second at Huntingdon back in May.
Recommendation: Harry Bright (Nap) - 2/1 with bet365
2:43pm Newcastle (Eider Chase, Saturday) - Anglers Crag
The passing of 1969 Grand National winning jockey Eddie Harty last week reminded me of the Eider Chase of that year. Still in short trousers, after watching the victory of the Toby Balding-trained Highland Wedding (with Bob Champion in the saddle) in Newcastle's extreme stamina test, I was convinced I had just seen the next winner of the world's most famous steeplechase on that February afternoon.
After telling everyone who would listen, and even those who wouldn’t, it remains to say that I was the most popular boy in school the following Monday after the 12-year-old had romped home by 12 lengths on ground officially described as firm (I know, hard to believe now). Anyway, fast forward a minor 57 years later and the important matter of this year’s renewal at the north-east racecourse on Saturday.
While it is highly unlikely that this year’s Virgin Bet-sponsored extended 4m 1f marathon will have any bearing on the outcome of the great race in less than two months time, I am keen on a repeat victory for 2024 winner ANGLERS CRAG, now in the care of Nicky Richards after leaving trainer Brian Ellison last November.
After totally losing his form on his last six starts for Ellison, it was thought a change of scenery may rejuvenate the 11-year-old, who made his debut for Richards in an extended 3m handicap at Carlisle later that month. With jockey Danny McMenamin setting out to make the running, his mount never looked in any danger of defeat, eventually cruising home by 9 lengths from his 7 rivals.
Straight after the race, the Eider Chase popped into my mind, thoughts which were echoed by Richards in a post-race interview. Not seen since that win of almost three months ago, connections are clearly keen on retaining the gelding’s current handicap mark of 130, only 4lb higher than when previously successful.
Saturday’s forecast heavy ground will hold no fears for the son of Multiplex, who is fancied to give his trainer a second victory in the race following that of Baywing in 2018.
Recommendation: Anglers Crag - 8/1 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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