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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 5 December
Sandown Park is due to stage a couple of Grade 2 races on Friday afternoon, the ground at the Esher racecourse expected to ride on the soft side of good.
Similar conditions are forecast for the card at Exeter which features the stamina-sapping Greendale Handicap Chase run over an extended 3m 6f at 3:08pm.
12:58pm Sedgefield - Monaghan Boy (Each-Way)
Patrick Neville’s top weight Upfordebate ran out an easy winner over today’s course and distance last month, the six-year-old recording a third victory in his last four starts. Now running off a mark of 100, Brian Hughes’ mount may not have reached his ceiling just yet.
Any market move for recent Irish point-to-point winner Cresthill should be noted, a remark which also applies to Jamesieconn, who will be having his first start for trainer Nicky Richards since the Doncaster winner of earlier in the year left the stable of Sam England.
Jane Walton’s Eveque was a surprise winner at Hexham last month and this inconsistent chaser would have a chance if in the same kind of form. However, at what I expect to be a decent price, it could be worth taking a chance on the Micky Hammond-trained MONAGHAN BOY (Each-Way).
The stable has had three winners in the last week, along with a few others running well at big prices. If able to reproduce the form of his victory on this course last year, the mount of 5lb claimer Conor Rabbitt is more than capable of going close off a mark of just 79. The eight-year-old almost certainly needed his first run of the season at Wetherby last month and is fancied to outrun his odds with conditions to suit.
Recommendation: Monaghan Boy (Each-Way)
2:55pm Sandown - Kelce (Each-Way)
Top weight In d’Or has his first start for trainer Fergal O’Brien in this Challenger Staying Chase Series Qualifier, the lightly-raced seven-year-old last seen finishing 6th in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival for previous handler Venetia Williams. Paul Nicholls’ Welcom To Cartries has yet to make the frame in three starts over fences but could be dangerous off an opening handicap mark of 130.
Dan Skelton’s Hidden History made a winning debut over fences at Aintree last month, although Harry Skelton’s mount may struggle to confirm the form with the third horse home, Ben Pauling’s Champagne Twist, who did well to finish within two lengths of the winner after making a shocking mistake at the 10th fence followed by another error 2 out.
At the bottom of the handicap is the Neil Mulholland-trained KELCE (Each-Way), who gets the vote with jockey Conor O’Farrell taking over in the saddle from amateur Mr A P Ryan, Farrell aboard the seven-year-old on both of his victories to date at Market Rasen and Wetherby.
Kelce has run well on all 8 outings over fences and performed better than his finishing position of 7th would suggest at Cheltenham's November meeting when holding every chance until unable to find any extra in the closing stages on the heavy ground. The Valirann gelding will find conditions more to his liking today and should go well in receipt of weight from all of his rivals.
Recommendation: Kelce (Each-Way)
3:05pm Exeter - Art Decco (Nap)
While the form of the Robert Walford stable is a slight concern, I think his ART DECCO (Nap) has a great chance of going one better than when runner-up in this stamina-sapping handicap 12 months ago. Last year’s renewal was a much stronger race than that of this year, Harry Kimber’s mount failing by just a neck to get the better of a titanic struggle with Jeremy Scott’s Leissieres Express, the pair 16 lengths and more ahead of the rest of the field.
A 9/2 chance for the Devon National over today’s course and distance back in February, Art Decco ran out a game winner despite his rider losing his whip approaching the final fence. Running off the same mark of 126 today, and with a recent run under his belt, the nine-year-old is fancied to defy top weight.
Most of Art Decco’s six rivals have been struggling of late, best of which may be Chester Williams’ Jupiter Allen, a well beaten favourite on this course last month but far from disgraced in the National Hunt Chase at the festival on his final run of last season.
Recommendation: Art Decco (Nap)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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