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Five winning days out of six for the week ending Sunday, 27 September, and a profit of +£13.13.
Our each-way nap on Saturday, Erzidjan, just missed out on a place from an unfavourable draw. We did recommend 100/1 third Altareq as the best each-way alternative, without actually tipping Jim Goldie’s charge.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 27 September: +£13.13
P/L for the year to date: +£171.66
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£672.22
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 29 September
The ground is sure to be testing for Ayr’s meeting on Tuesday afternoon, the going currently described as soft, heavy in places, and with rain forecast during the day.
In contrast, the Jumps card at Sedgefield is expected to take place on ground just on the firm side of good.
2:08pm Ayr - Penelope’s Sister
John & Sean Quinn’s Empirestateofmind, rated as high as 101 back in the summer of 2023, will be having his 62nd career start in this apprentice handicap off a mark of 71. While not the force of old, the eight-year-old put up a couple of decent efforts earlier this month, first of all when winning over today’s course and distance before going down by a neck at Hamilton two days later.
With talented apprentice Jack Callan in the saddle, another big run from the eight-year-old would come as no surprise. The Jim Goldie pair of Motawaared and PENELOPE'S SISTER receive plenty of weight from their six rivals and will not be inconvenienced by today’s testing ground, slight preference being for the latter.
The mount of 3lb claimer Shay Farmer looked like making all of the running over today’s course and distance 12 days ago, only to be caught in the closing stages by Ivan Furtado’s Sailthisshipalone, the pair clear of the other 11 runners.
Sent off at odds of 7/4 for a similar race on the course 24 hours later, the six-year-old mare, adopting similar tactics, weakened to finish 3rd of the 8 contenders. That race almost certainly came too soon for the daughter of War Command, who now runs off a mark 9lb lower than when successful at Ayr 12 months ago. Three of Penelope’s Sister’s four wins to date have come over today’s course and distance. If allowed a soft lead up front, the mare is fancied to take plenty of pegging back.
Recommendation: Penelope’s Sister - 4/1 with bet365
3:08pm Ayr - Tipsy Tiger (Each-Way) (Nap)
David O’Meara’s Mehmas Champions, after showing next to nothing on his first four starts for the stable since coming from Germany, ran out a shock 80/1 winner at Haydock four weeks ago, the Mehmas gelding’s improvement put down to the soft conditions at the Merseyside racecourse.
Today’s testing conditions should suit Daniel Tudhope’s mount, who has been raised on 3lb for that neck victory over subsequent winner Pol Roger. Gemma Tutty’s course and distance winner Star Cast and bottom weight Keep An Eye On It are a couple of others to consider, but I quite like the chances of William Stone’s Newmarket raider TIPSY TIGER (Each-Way) (Nap).
The son of Postponed is at his best when encountering testing conditions, the five-year-old’s two wins to date coming on heavy and soft ground, the most recent at Sandown around this time two years ago off a 1lb higher mark than will be the case today.
This will be just the third start of the year for Tipsy Tiger, who had every chance until weakening late-on at Sandown 18 days ago, the gelding’s first outing for almost three months. Jockey Shane Gray takes over in the saddle for the first time on the Newmarket challenger, who can make the long journey worthwhile for connections.
Recommendation: Tipsy Tiger (Each-Way) (Nap) - 6/1 with bet365 (3 places)
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick too.
3:45pm Sedgefield - Zamond
Top Irish amateur jockey Paddy Mullins makes a rare visit to the County Durham racecourse, even more so his father Willie, the pair teaming up with the seven-year-old maiden Whitewinewednesday for this Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier.
Previously with trainer Matthew Daly, the mare made her debut for the Closutton maestro in a 2m 4f Limerick handicap hurdle back in May when sent off the 11/2 joint favourite for the 18-runner contest. After finding herself tailed-off with 3 to jump, the mare was pulled-up, later found to be showing signs of being in season.
The betting is sure to prove a significant guide to the chances of the Irish challenger. However, I prefer to side with the more solid form shown by last year’s winner, the Donald McCain-trained ZAMOND. The 10-year-old ran out a comfortable winner off a mark of 88 twelve months ago, and while the gelding is now rated 99, conditional jockey Harry Brown takes off a handy 10lb.
Brown has partnered Zamond twice before, finishing second on both occasions, and unless the Irish raider is capable of showing significant improvement for the Mullins team, the top weight is fancied to take this Class 5 contest for a second time.
Recommendation: Zamond - 11/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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