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Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 20 November
Lingfield Park stages an excellent all-weather card on Thursday afternoon featuring a couple of fillies’ Listed races.
The jumps action comes from Warwick (soft, heavy in places), Wincanton (good, good to soft in places) and Thurles (soft) in Ireland.
2:30pm Lingfield - Sky Safari (Nap)
Unbeaten on all four starts on an all-weather surface, three at Kempton and one at Wolverhampton, James Fanshawe’s SKY SAFARI (Nap) is one of 11 contenders for this £50k Listed race for fillies and is expected to take the step-up in class within her stride.
The daughter of Zoustar achieved a rating of 97 when winning Kempton’s Unibet London Mile Series Final in September, beating the Richard Hannon-trained Local Hero by a neck. Always looking in command of that valuable handicap despite the narrow margin of victory, Daniel Muscutt’s mount is the type who only just does enough in winning her races.
Providing the filly does not encounter traffic problems from her draw in stall 3, I think she will have too much finishing pace for her 10 rivals, best of which is probably Ollie Sangster’s 101-rated Shuwari. Of those at a double-figure price, Tom Clover’s Rajindri is more than capable of making the frame.
Recommendation: Sky Safari (Nap) - 11/8 with William Hill
2:45pm Wincanton - Freddie Fleetfoot (Each-Way)
Lydia Richards’ Birthday Angel opened his account over hurdles at the fifth attempt when winning at Plumpton three days ago. The mount of Rex Dingle makes a quick reappearance under a 7lb penalty and the in-form five-year-old, a winner on the flat at Brighton last month, will be fancied by many to follow-up.
Emma Lavelle’s Lady Caro is better than her latest effort at Plumpton last month and has the services of jockey Harry Cobden for the first time, while Harriet Dickin’s Just Aidan, a course and distance winner back in March, could go well if fit enough following a break of 7 months. However, in receipt of weight from all of his rivals, the vote goes to FREDDIE FLEETFOOT (Each-Way) from the Carroll Grey stable.
This will be the 15th outing over hurdles for the Blue Bresil gelding, whose best effort to date came when finishing a clear second in a Taunton handicap last April behind a horse of Paul Nicholls now rated 107 over hurdles and 112 over fences.
On his first outing for 544 days at Stratford last month, the mount of James Davies (previously ridden by 7lb claimers Elizabeth Gale and Thomasina Eyston) led turning for home, only to unseat his rider at the last flight of hurdles after being headed. With that run under his belt and off such a light weight, a big run is expected from the each-way selection.
Recommendation: Freddie Fleetfoot (Each-Way) - 10/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:20pm Wincanton - Merry Monty
Suzy Smith’s top weight Tapley has yet to win in four attempts over fences, the grey son of Geordieland 4 from 24 over the smaller obstacles. With the 7lb claim of rider Isabelle Ryder, the eight-year-old has claims of going one better than when finding only Ben Case’s Nickelforce too good over today’s course and distance 12 days ago.
Pep Talking did us a favour when winning at Wetherby's Charlie Hall meeting recently and Billy Aprahamian’s consistent seven-year-old (6 from 14 over fences) should be competitive once again racing off a 4lb higher mark. Joe Tizzard’s Belgarum and Imperial Jade from the Charlie Longston stable will need to improve significantly on their most recent outings, unlike the Chris Down-trained MERRY MONTY, who ran a cracker on his first start for 633 days at Uttoxeter on the final day of last month.
That was just the third run over fences for the Arvico gelding, who, after finishing a close second on his debut over fences at Exeter on the first day of last year, went one better with a comfortable victory at Taunton the following month. Reappearing at Uttoxeter after such a long break, it was no surprise to see Bryan Carver’s mount ignored in the betting at odds of 20/1.
Merry Monty ran way beyond expectations however, making most of the running until lack of condition told on the run-in. Beaten less than three lengths in finishing third of the 16 runners, the selection is fancied to take this Class 4 contest off a mark only 1lb higher.
Recommendation: Merry Monty - 11/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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