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Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 17 July
Flat racing has the scene to itself in Britain on Friday with excellent turf cards at Nottingham, Newbury, Newmarket, Hamilton and Pontefract.
4:10pm Newbury - Sale Shark
An open renewal of the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes, a race in which many of the 12 juveniles have previous form with each other. Ed & Simon Crisford’s Social Symbol came out best of the four horses competing for today’s race who took part in Royal Ascot’s Group 2 Norfolk Stakes, Jack Mitchell’s mount staying on to finish a creditable fourth, several places ahead of Mr Macartney (7th) and Agamemnon (8th), with Richard Spencer’s Underdog back in 15th spot.
I think the horse to beat, however, is the Hugo Palmer-trained SALE SHARK, 5th in Royal Ascot’s Windsor Castle Stakes, half a length in front of Richard Hannon’s A Bear Affair. The Bayside Boy colt’s performance can be marked up considerably, as Kieren Shoemark’s mount did much the best of those horses drawn low (out of stall 3) in a race dominated by horses coming out of stalls 22, 14, 25 and 23.
Sent off a well-supported 11/2 chance for that 6f Listed race, Sale Shark had previously impressed when winning on his debut at Hamilton and may have most to fear from the unbeaten pair of Arapaho Gold and Nabati, both of which take a big step-up in class.
Recommendation: Sale Shark - 9/2 with William Hill
6:58pm Newmarket - High Degree (Nap)
Having tipped the William Haggas-trained HIGH DEGREE (Nap) on his last two starts when 3rd at Sandown and 5th at Hamilton, the Too Darn Hot gelding heavily supported on both occasions, I think the step back up to today’s trip of 1m 2f will suit Cieren Fallon’s mount, who can finally reward his supporters with a victory in this Class 3 handicap.
The four-year-old’s sole win to date from 9 starts came in a Ffos Las maiden 12 months ago, after which the selection ran some excellent races in defeat. Just out of the frame in big field handicaps at Glorious Goodwood and Ascot with a rating of 93, High Degree now runs off the same mark (91) as when beating all bar last Saturday’s John Smith’s Cup runner-up Hand Of God over today’s trip on his first run of the season at Newbury.
Jonathan Portman’s Way Of Life has won 3 of his last 4 starts but may struggle off today’s career-high mark of 88, a bigger danger possibly coming in the shape of James Tate’s bottom weight Darn Hot Gallop, an outclassed 17th behind True Love in the Betfred 1000 Guineas but badly drawn when finishing 17th of 30 in Royal Ascot’s Sandringham Stakes last time.
Recommendation: High Degree (Nap) - 5/4 with bet365
7:15pm Hamilton - Saint Lawrence (Each-Way)
Compared to last year this is a poor renewal of the Scottish Stewards’ Cup, the first two horses home 12 months ago being Hugo Palmer’s Nariko and Double Rush, winner of this year’s Wokingham at Royal Ascot. At a double-figure price, I think it could be worth taking a chance on the winner of that Heritage Handicap back in 2023 when in the care of trainer Archie Watson, SAINT LAWRENCE (Each-Way).
That win of three years ago came off a mark of 100, 15lb higher than the eight-year-old’s current rating of 85. Following a series of disappointing efforts, the son of Al Kazeem was moved north to the Kevin Ryan stable in an effort to rekindle the gelding’s enthusiasm for the game.
A close second at Ascot on his debut for Ryan in May, I don’t think Kevin Stott’s mount was suited by the soft conditions at Epsom on Derby Day and will be much more at home on tonight’s forecast ground of good to firm.
Recommendation: Saint Lawrence (Each-Way) - 12/1 with William Hill (3 places)
7:50pm Hamilton - Superior Choice
Andrew Balding's Prizeland was no match for Ballydoyle’s Cameo when upped in class for Lingfield’s Oaks Trial, the daughter of Territories beaten just over six lengths when 5th in the Italian Oaks last month. P J McDonald’s mount will be more at home in tonight’s Listed company but faces a promising colt in John & Thady Gosden’s SUPERIOR CHOICE.
The son of Dubawi had little trouble winning a four-runner contest at Newmarket last month, but it was the previous victory of Shane Foley’s mount in a Leicester maiden which suggests that the unexposed three-year-old could be a horse to follow during the rest of the season.
Well on top at the end of that 1m 2f contest, Superior Choice had a couple of lengths to spare over runner-up Heyzoom, Owen Burrows’ charge going on to finish an excellent 4th of 19 in the King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) at Royal Ascot. With an opening mark of just 87, the selection would have been a strong fancy for any handicap, so the fact that connections are targeting this £80k Listed race is a tip in itself.
Recommendation: Superior Choice - 11/8 with William Hill
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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