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Despite another excellent week with a profit of +£17.13 to a £1 level stake, we can count ourselves unfortunate due to the narrow defeats of Silver Lake (6/1) and Baldomero (10/1) on Friday and Sea Lantern’s mugging in Saturday’s Cesarewitch (advised at 6/1), all beaten a matter of inches.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 11 October: +£17.13
P/L for the year to date: +£213.42
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£713.98
Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 14 October
The 2026/27 national hunt season steps up a gear this week and Wednesday’s card at Ffos Las is an absolute cracker, the ground at the Welsh racecourse currently described as good to soft.
There are also informative Jumps fixtures at Wetherby and Punchestown in Ireland. On the Flat, Nottingham hosts an ultra-competitive card, while Kempton Park’s evening all-weather meeting stages the Unibet London Sprint Series Final at 7:30pm
2:20pm Ffos Las - Pourquoi Pas Papa (Nap)
A tremendous novices’ limited handicap chase, the field of 5 headed by Dan Skelton’s exciting chasing debutante Sinnatra, the six-year-old last seen finishing second in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting. Harry Skelton’s mount has to concede between 17lb and 19lb to his four talented rivals however, a big ask on his first start over fences.
I expect trainer Olly Murphy to have the grey Wandering Ego pretty fit for his reappearance, and it would be no great surprise to see Sean Bowen’s mount go close. However, despite being 1lb out of the handicap, Paul Nicholls’ POURQUOI PAS PAPA (Nap) looks the type to take high rank among this season’s novice chasers, and is fancied to make a winning debut over fences in the hands of jockey Sam Twiston-Davies.
Fourth and third respectively in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival and the 21-runner Debenham’s Handicap Hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting, the four-year-old Manatee gelding can take advantage of the weight he receives from his rivals with the Ditcheat stable just starting to find its stride.
Recommendation: Pourquoi Pas Papa (Nap) - 5/2 with William Hill
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
4:38pm Ffos Las - Crebilly
On his first start for Dan Skelton, it will be interesting to see what the champion trainer is able to achieve with the enigmatic Il Est Francais, who looked a potential superstar in the making when winning the 2023 Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day. To say that the eight-year-old has been unpredictable since then would be an understatement. A fascinating watch off top weight in this Class 2 contest.
Another horse who has failed to reach the heights expected as a novice chaser is the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-trained CREBILLY for leading owner J P McManus. Rated as high as 143 following his narrow defeat in the TrustATrader Plate at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Harry Cobden's mount reverted back to the smaller obstacles last season before finishing second over fences at Stratford during this summer.
The Soldier Of Fortune gelding went one better at Worcester the following month when beating Ben Pauling's hat-trick seeking Youdecide by a comfortable two and a half lengths, conceding 19lb to the runner-up. Now running off a mark of 132, with fitness on his side, and from a stable in good form, Crebilly is expected to go close with just 10st 5lb to carry against several rivals who are sure to come on for the run.
Recommendation: Crebilly - 3/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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