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A break-even week ending Sunday 30th August with a small profit of +£1.72 to a £1 level stake, although we did have three out of five winning naps (11/4, 11/4 (10p R4) and 4/7) plus a non-runner.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 August: +£1.72
P/L for the year to date: +£157.90
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£658.56
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 4 September
The going for Ascot's meeting on Friday is expected to ride on the firm side of good. In contrast, conditions for the other turf Flat card, at Haydock Park, will take place on soft ground.
2:50pm Bangor - Thickthorn Tom (Nap)
Despite this step-up into Class 2 company for the first time over fences, I expect the Dan Skelton-trained THICKTHORN TOM (Nap) to record a fourth victory over the bigger obstacles in less than two months. Following easy successes at Stratford and Worcester in July, the six-year-old had a break of almost 6 weeks before returning to action at Newton Abbot last Thursday.
Always going easily, Harry Skelton’s mount took up the running approaching the final fence before quickening away from his three rivals. Due to go up 10lb in the future, the Ocovango gelding should take plenty of beating once again under today’s 7lb penalty and in receipt of weight from all of his rivals.
Micky Bowen’s Tamarind Bay may also have been on a four-timer but for unseating his rider 3 out at Perth last month when holding every chance, while Olly Murphy’s top weight Sure Touch is always to be respected in this type of race, especially with the 5lb claim of jockey Lewis Saunders.
Recommendation: Thickthorn Tom (Nap) - 11/8 with bet365
3:15pm Haydock - Ran Amok (Each-Way)
Despite winning races at Chepstow and Doncaster at the age of two and three respectively, the Hugo Palmer-trained RAN AMOK (Each-Way) was beginning to prove a little disappointing until having wind surgery for the second time three months ago, since when the son of Dandy Man has ran well in defeat in 6f handicaps at Chester and Doncaster.
David Probert’s mount has shown a preference for soft conditions in the past; and off today’s mark of 76, the four-year-old looks to have an excellent chance of taking this Class 4 sprint handicap. Richard Hannon’s joint top weight Wild Clary looks sure to go well based on some excellent efforts this season, and can be forgiven a below-par run at Ripon last time when hampered at the start.
Clifford Lee’s mount can give Ran Amok most to do along with the David & Nicola Barron-trained pair of Cargin Bhui and the unexposed Tip Foster.
Recommendation: Ran Amok (Each-Way) - 9/1 with Ladbrokes (4 places)
3:47pm Haydock - Lipsink
The veteran nine-year-old Lipsink has been a loyal servant to the Mick Appleby stable over the years, the son of Kodiac successful in 10 of his 62 starts to date, six on the all-weather and four on turf. I think the gelding is at his best over the minimum trip and with plenty of give in the ground, conditions which Alistair Rawlinson’s mount is guaranteed this afternoon.
LIPSINK went close to foiling a gamble on Roger Teal’s hot favourite Rosario at Sandown on Saturday when failing by a short head to catch the 6/5 market leader. Due to go up a further 2lb in the future, the selection looks to have plenty going for him in this 5f sprint handicap.
Of the three horses from the classic generation, the most dangerous is likely to be the William Haggas-trained Creative Queen. The filly’s one victory to date came on soft ground at Yarmouth back in May. Following a couple of modest efforts earlier in the summer, Cieren Fallon’s mount ran her best race since that victory when beaten a nose at Yarmouth last month.
Recommendation: Lipsink - 13/2 with bet365
4:53pm Haydock - Flash Bardot (Each-Way)
Haydock’s Class 5 finale is a race that should take little winning, in which case it could be worth siding with the ex Jack Channon-trained mud-loving Flash Bardot, now in the care of Henrietta Knight. The booking of jockey Cieren Fallon for the Sixties Icon mare also suggests that the stable fancy their chances on the six-year-old’s return to the Flat.
Since joining Best Mate’s trainer earlier in the year, FLASH BARDOT (Each-Way) has been far from disgraced on her two starts over hurdles, the second when beating all bar an unexposed horse of the Skelton’s at Fontwell back in May. Four from 21 on the Flat (turf), three of which came under soft or heavy conditions, the mare has been given a real chance off her lowest mark since winning at Newbury around this time three years ago.
Beaten just over five lengths in the November Handicap of two years ago off a stone higher mark, Flash Bardot is worth chancing with conditions to suit, although the market is likely to prove a significant guide to her chances. Best of the rest may be Hughie Morrison’s course winner Blue Wonder.
Recommendation: Flash Bardot (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (4 places)
5:25pm Ascot - Hambelton
Top weight First Legion, one of two runners for the Richard Hannon stable, won on his debut at York last May, since when the son of Mehmas has suffered 11 consecutive defeats. There was a lot to like about the colt’s recent effort at York however, when 5th of 22 in a competitive handicap. Running off a career-low mark of 87, Shane Foley’s mount is capable of running a big race.
Raging Raj, on his second start for trainer Michael Herrington since leaving the Jane Chapple-Hyam stable, ran out an easy winner at Thirsk last month, but will find this tougher off a 10lb higher mark. The latter trainer runs handicap debutante Star Of Commala, who is harder to assess following a couple of narrow wins on the all-weather.
Irish trainer David Marnane is represented by the Ghaiyyath gelding HAMBELTON, who can make it third time lucky following two previous visits to this country. Sandwiched between wins at Cork and Gowran Park in July, Luke McAteer’s mount just lost out to Gemma Tutty’s Illy’s Roo in a one mile handicap at York after holding a clear lead a furlong out. For a horse with plenty of early pace, Hambelton is unlikely to be inconvenienced by today’s trip of 7f and gets the vote in Ascot’s three-year-old finale.
Recommendation: Hambelton - 7/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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