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Despite losing days on Friday and Sunday, an excellent week ended Sunday, 4 October, with a profit of +£24.63 to a £1 level stake.
The 20/1 success of Arqoob on Saturday was the most profitable of our five winning selections from ITV’s ten-race coverage.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 4 October: +£24.63
P/L for the year to date: +£196.29
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£696.85
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 9 October
ITV Racing's coverage on Saturday afternoon comprises 5 races from Newmarket and 3 from York.
The feature races at headquarters are the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes at 3:00pm and Club Goldolphin Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) at 3:40pm.
1:15pm Newmarket - Boiling Point
The betting for this nine furlong Group 3 contest suggests that the winner is likely to come from Andrew Balding’s The Lost King or the Wathnan Racing-owned pair of Haatem and Humidity. With a similar rating to those three contenders, I think the 8/1 currently available about Karl Burke’s BOILING POINT is too big.
Clifford Lee’s mount carried top weight to victory over today’s course and distance in last year’s Cambridgeshire, and in what may prove to be a tactical race, could take some pegging back if allowed a soft lead up front.
Recommendation: Boiling Point - 8/1 with bet365
1:30pm York - Cut A Dash
Held up towards the rear in Newbury’s Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes last month, I thought Richard Hannon’s CUT A DASH did well to be beaten just three lengths behind four decent juveniles, the Starspangledbanner colt staying on to finish a never-nearer fifth.
Fourth, beaten a length in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot with winning machine Night In Vegas back in 5th, Sean Levey’s mount has his ideal conditions today and can get back to winning ways with a victory in this 6f Listed contest.
Recommendation: Cut A Dash - 4/1 with William Hill
1:50pm Newmarket - Apulia Bay
A race which makes little appeal from a betting perspective. Ballydoyle’s Drumbeat looks short enough at around odds of 11/10 on what the Wootton Bassett colt has achieved so far. Sword Salute would appear to be the first string on the two Charlie Johnston runners, while holes can be picked in the form of the maiden victories achieved by Netherstream and Wykehurst Park.
Simon & Ed Crisford’s APULIA BAY has done little wrong in four starts to date and gets a tentative vote in this mile and a quarter Group 3 juvenile contest. James Doyle’s mount looked as if he would appreciate today’s step-up in trip when staying-on to finish a close third behind a Godolphin hotpot at Newbury last month and is capable of surprising one to two better fancied rivals.
Recommendation: Apulia Bay - 10/1 with Betfred
2:05pm York - Water To Wine
Fancied by many to be a leading Derby contender after recording impressive victories on his first two starts as a three-year-old (unraced at two) at Newbury and Kempton Park earlier in the year, connections of WATER TO WINE decided to bypass Epsom in favour of Royal Ascot’s King Edward V11 Stakes at the royal meeting.
The son of Kingman did himself no favours at Royal Ascot, coming home a well beaten third after taking a keen hold and hanging to his right up the Ascot straight. Following a gelding operation last month, John & Thady Gosden’s charge makes his handicap debut in this extended mile and a quarter contest off an opening mark of 104.
When you consider that Richard Hannon’s Alderman looked outclassed by the mount of 3lb claimer Luke Catton at Newbury, that horse’s 5th place finish in the Derby and 4th in the St Leger suggests that Water To Wine could be much better than a handicapper. Richard Hughes’ Nobody Knows is the other one to consider, while best of those at a double-figure price may be Tim Easterby’s bottom weight Stoneacre Donny.
Recommendation: Water To Wine - 11/2 with William Hill
2:25pm Newmarket - Rock Montreal (Nap)
Sergei Diaghilev represents the powerful Ballydoyle stable of Aidan O’Brien in this one mile Autumn Stakes, Ryan Moore’s mount proving no match for Godolphin’s Desert Castle in Doncaster’s Champagne Stakes last time.
Godolphin are represented by the Charlie Appleby-trained Doncaster maiden winner Al Jabbar and ROCK MONTREAL (Nap) from the Roger Varian stable, the latter just failing to peg back Andrew Balding’s unbeaten filly Forbidden Fire in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting last month.
On just his second start to date, William Buick’s mount still looked very green on Town Moor, and I expect the Blue Point colt to put that experience to good use with a victory in this Group 3 contest.
Recommendation: Rock Montreal (Nap) - 7/4 with William Hill
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
3:00pm Newmarket - Darkness Falls
A field of only 5 for this Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes, but a fascinating clash between two of the best juveniles on either side of the Irish sea. Desert Castle, one of two runners for Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby, has a big reputation, and did little to dampen that enthusiasm with comprehensive victories in a Newmarket maiden and Doncaster’s Group 2 Champagne Stakes.
While Ballydoyle’s DARKNESS FALLS could only finish 3rd of 5 on his debut in a Leopardstown maiden back in July (sent off an unfancied 17/2 chance), the son of Camelot showed significant improvement to record wide-margin wins on his next two starts, the most recent in Leopardstown’s Group 1 Golden Fleece Stakes last month.
While the distance of today’s race favours William Buick’s mount (4/1 favourite for next season’s 2000 Guineas), Darkness Falls looks the stronger stayer on breeding (8/1 favourite for Epsom). Despite dropping back 2f in trip compared to that Leopardstown race, slight preference is for Aidan O’Brien’s charge, who could turn out to be very useful.
Recommendation: Darkness Falls - 15/8 with bet365
3:17pm York - Binhareer (Each-Way)
I thought the Willaim Haggas-trained BINHAREER (Each-Way) had a cracking chance of landing last month’s Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup after finishing 6th in the race 12 months earlier and following some creditable efforts in between. As it turned out, the combination of being drawn in stall 2 and under conditions which were testing to say the least, Tom Marquand’s mount could never strike a blow in finishing a never-nearer 9th of the 24 runners.
Today’s forecast good ground on the Knavesmire expected to see the son of Dark Angel in a much better light, and off a mark 1lb lower than at Ayr the four-year-old is expected to go close in this £100k Sky Bet Sprint Trophy (Heritage Handicap), a race the grey won 12 months ago. At odds of around 33/1, I would not be surprised to see 2024 winner Strike Red make the frame with a visor on for the first time.
Recommendation: Binhareer (Each-Way) - 6/1 with bet365 (6 places)
3:40pm Newmarket - Sea Lantern
After watching Brian Ellison’s SEA LANTERN win a mile and a half handicap at Pontefract last month on his handicap debut, I was so impressed with how strong the Sea The Stars gelding was at the end of that race, after being pushed along at the halfway stage, that I backed the unexposed four-year-old at 20/1 for today’s 2m 2f stamina test.
In an interview with Racing TV after the race, Ellison confirmed my view that Sea Lantern was likely to prove a lot better than his rating on that occasion of 85, in fact the trainer was confident he had a potential Group performer on his hands. With a 4lb penalty to carry for that Pontefract victory, taking his mark up to 89, Rowan Scott’s mount will never have a better chance of landing a valuable staying handicap than that of today.
Hopefully, the ground at headquarters is not too fast, as connections have stated that Sea Lantern could be switched to Doncaster’s November Handicap if conditions are deemed unsuitable. Last year’s winner Beylerbeyi will attempt to become only the second dual winner of the race, the other being Aaim To Prosper in 2010 and 2012. Billy Loughnane’s mount is respected, along with Irish raider Dawn Rising and Jim Goldie’s Mountain Road.
Recommendation: Sea Lantern - 6/1 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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