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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A good start to Grand National week with the 9/1 victory of Soldier In Milan in Monday’s Irish Grand National. However, the best we could manage in Saturday’s feature race was the seventh place finish of our 50/1 long-range pick Final Orders.
The rain which fell at Aintree on Friday night and during racing on Saturday didn’t help the chances of our ante-post selection.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 12 April: -£11.25
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£57.35
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£558.01
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 14 April
The first day of Newmarket's three-day Craven meeting is expected to take place on good (watered) ground.
The main action from headquarters comes on Wednesday and Thursday when ITV’s coverage will include the Nell Gwyn and Craven Stakes, both potentially significant trials for the first two classics of the season.
3:55pm Market Rasen - Grain Trade (NAP)
Since joining the Donald McCain stable from France just before Christmas in 2023, and following a break of two years, the seven-year-old Jiair Madrik has proved frustrating to say the least, Theo Gillards’ mount fitted with a hood and tongue-tie and on his first start since having a wind op last month.
While the gelding has ability (won on his debut over hurdles when trained in France), the joint top weight is a risky proposition at the moment. The other top weight, Charles & Adam Pogson’s Catchim, is now on a losing run of 11 over fences and is hard to fancy based on his last three disappointing efforts.
By a process of elimination, I think this modest Class 5 handicap chase is there for the taking by Billy Aprahamian’s Grain Trade, granted a satisfactory round of jumping from Gavin Sheehan’s mount. A comfortable winner on his second out over fences on this course in October, the seven-year-old was in the process of following-up at Fontwell three weeks later only to fall at the final fence with the race won.
Not disgraced when fourth over today’s course and distance last month, the Telescope gelding has a habit of making the odd mistake but will enjoy today’s conditions in a race that is his to lose.
Recommendations: Grain Trade (NAP) at 11/8 with bet365
4:45pm Newmarket - Mythical Guest & Real Gain
The best handicap on Newmarket’s seven-race card comes courtesy of this one mile contest to end proceedings on the first day of the Craven meeting. Charlie Johnston’s five-year-old mare Arisaig heads the weights with a rating of 101, the daughter of Harry Angel now running off a career-high mark despite failing to trouble the judge in 9 races in 2025.
The ex Richard Hughes-trained Real Gain, unplaced when sent off favourite for last season’s Cambridgeshire, is interesting on his first start for Hamad Al Jehani. Possibly drawn on the wrong side at headquarters when taking the field along until approaching the final furlong, James Doyle's mount makes plenty of appeal off a mark only 1lb higher than when winning a handicap by over five lengths on this course in 2023.
Along with Real Gain, I will also back George Margason’s bottom weight Mythical Guest, the mount of talented 5lb claimer Jack Callan. The Make Believe gelding has a good record at headquarters and can go well following a break, including when easily winning a Yarmouth handicap on this reappearance two years ago.
Third in this race 12 months ago when in receipt of just 5lb from a horse, Bullet Point, who would go on to finish runner-up in the Royal Hunt Cup and Betfred Handicap, both at Ascot, and begins the present campaign on a rating of 105. The winner of that Royal Hunt Cup was Roger Varian’s My Cloud (also rated 105), who Mythical Guest finished second to on his other start last April.
Beaten just over a length when finishing a close fourth behind Bullet Train once again in York’s valuable Clipper Handicap at the Ebor meeting, Mythical Guest looks sure to go close in receipt of plenty of weight from all of his rivals.
Recommendation: Mythical Guest at 10/1 (bet365) & Real Gain at 11/2 (Betway, PP)
5:05pm Market Rasen - Molto Bene
An excellent race for this £50k mares’ novices’ chase (Premier Handicap), the field headed by Harry Derham’s Jasmine Bliss who is closely matched with fellow rivals Ruby Island and All The Glory, the three horses separated by five lengths when first, third and fourth respectively in a Listed mares’ chase at Huntingdon two months ago.
On today’s revised terms it is easy to make a case out for all three contenders. Emma Lavelle’s Bluey has taken well to fences, winning two of her five starts to date, and has the services of Harry Cobden for the first time. The vote, however, goes to the Charlie Longsdon-trained Molto Bene and jockey Lilly Pinchin.
The daughter of Jukebox Jury won her first two starts over fences towards the back end of last year before finishing a creditable second in a mares’ Listed hurdle race at Doncaster just before Christmas. No match for Dan Skelton’s Panic Attack when reverting back to fences at Newbury the following month, finishing second in receipt of just 4lb from the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Coral Gold Cup winner was no mean effort.
Beaten a neck at Leicester on her most recent start when conceding 21lb to the winner Taxus Baccata also reads well following the subsequent 23 length victory by Robbie Llewellyn’s charge. With the ground and distance of today’s race looking ideal, Molto Bene is fancied to come out on top in a fascinating race.
Recommendation: Molto Bene 4/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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