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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Our 4th winning week in a row, the highlight being the victory of 10/1 Nap of the Day Thistle Ask (started 3/1) in Friday's Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter.
Three winning Naps out of over the six days, the most impressive being Danielle's nine-length rout (tipped at 2/1) at Doncaster on Saturday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 9 November: +£10.89
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£71.83
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£557.82
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 14 November
Cheltenham’s November meeting gets underway on Friday afternoon with the ground currently described as good, good to soft in places.
With up to 20mm of rain forecast on Friday, the going looks sure to be much softer prior to the first race at 1:10pm.
1:45pm Cheltenham - Dreal Deal (Each-Way)
With a substantial amount of rain forecast throughout the day, I expect the ground at Prestbury Park to be quite testing by the time racing gets underway, conditions which should suit Irish raider DREAL DEAL (Each-Way) in this extended 2m 4f veterans’ handicap chase, the 10-year-old appealing as decent value at current odds of 16/1.
The mount of 3lb claimer Tiernan Power Roche’s three wins over fences all came on soft ground, the most recent on his debut for trainer Philip Rothwell in July after leaving the stable of John O’Connell. Today’s two and a half mile trip is ideal for the son of Arvico, unlike several of his rivals who may be better over further.
Lord Baddesley, a winner at Newbury last week, is likely to ensure a decent pace and could go well for the in-form Anthony Honeyball stable, while Richard Hobson’s Fugitif is always to be respected on this course and is now 6lb lower than when winning the December Gold Cup here two years ago.
Recommendation: Dreal Deal (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred
3:30pm Cheltenham - Heads Up
An excellent turnout for this Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle featuring a host of promising staying novices from both sides of the Irish Sea. Paul Nicholls has made no secret of how highly he regards No Drama This End, described by his trainer in a recent interview as “might be in the Stage Star or Bravemansgame mould.”
While all 10 contenders look to have a future ahead of them, in particular when going over fences, the one they all have to beat is the John McConnell-trained HEADS UP. Runner-up to Bambino Fever in the Champion Bumper at the festival (No Drama This End back in 9th place), the Blue Bresil gelding had little trouble in opening his account over hurdles at Listowel towards the end of September and is expected to take high rank in the novice hurdle division in the months ahead.
Recommendation: Heads Up - 5/2 with Coral
4:00pm Cheltenham - Alphonse Le Grande (Nap)
Last seen finishing a creditable 8th in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket (won the historic staying handicap in 2024), the Tony Martin-trained ALPHONSE LE GRANDE (Nap) will be having his first run over hurdles for almost two years when contesting this novices’ handicap.
The son of Sea The Stars has made great strides on the flat since that modest effort in a Ludlow Class 5 contest, recording four victories in total, two on turf and two on the all-weather. Reverting back to the smaller obstacles, the six-year-old gets into today’s race off a mark of 98, and despite racing from 2lb out of the handicap, makes plenty of appeal from a stable always to be respected at the meeting. Soft ground shouldn’t be a problem for the mount of Daniel King, whose Cesarewitch victory came in testing conditions.
Not surprisingly, bet365 have installed Alphonse Le Grande as their 5/1 joint favourite along with top weight Fortune De Mer from the Dan Skelton stable. A Grade 2 winner at Cheltenham’s October meeting, Harry Skelton’s mount is clearly a smart prospect, but whether the lightly-raced Doyen gelding is capable of conceding 26lb to a previous Cesarewitch winner is open to question.
Martin also runs Bruant with champion jockey Sean Bowen on board and is respected, although the four-year-old has been well beaten on his four starts on the flat since winning a novices’ hurdle at Downpatrick during the summer.
Recommendation: Alphonse Le Grande (Nap) - 5/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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