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A disappointing week ending Sunday, 22 March, or should I say a disappointing Saturday, as we were just in front going into the weekend. Three seconds at odds of 11/4, 15/2 and 10/1 proved frustrating, in particular the head defeat of Knickerbockerglory at Bangor. I also thought our 22/1 selection Wasthatok was still going well when failing to avoid the fall of The Navigator at Kelso.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 22 March: -£6.77
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£72.10
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£572.76
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 27 March
ITV Racing will cover eight races on the opening day of the 2026 turf Flat season, five from Doncaster, including the historic William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) at 3:32pm, along with three races on Kempton Park’s all-weather card. The Town Moor going is expected to ride on the soft side of good.
1:20pm Doncaster - Blixen Force
Amo Racing are represented by both BLIXEN FORCE and Ocean Club in this opening juvenile contest, the two trained by Robson De Aguiar in Ireland. Early betting would suggest that the former is the stable’s number one hope, Rowan Scott’s mount, a son of Persian Force, who landed a gamble when winning this race four years ago before going on to win Newmarket’s Group 2 July Stakes.
Whether Blixen Force goes on to achieve anything like that level of form remains to be seen, but the colt is clearly thought to be useful and gets the tentative vote in a race best watched.
Recommendation: Blixen Force - 9/4 with Ladbrokes
1:50pm Doncaster - My Mate Alfie
A case can be made for many of the 12 runners in this 6f Listed race, the vote going to the ex Irish-trained MY MATE ALFIE, now in the care of David O’Meara. Previously with trainer Ger Lyons, the son of Dark Angel has recorded all five victories to date under similar conditions to those expected on Town Moor this afternoon, one of which came in the Group 3 Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh with fellow rival Spycatcher two lengths back in 5th place. A middle draw in stall 6 gives Mark Winn’s mount plenty of options regarding tactics.
Recommendation: My Mate Alfie - 7/1 with Coral
2:08pm Kempton - Blindedbythelights
Out of the first two only once in his last nine races, that coming over an inadequate trip of 1m 4f at Newcastle, Sir Mark Prescott’s BLINDEDBYTHELIGHTS has not enjoyed the best of luck to date, in particular when just failing to catch winner Story Horse in a Heritage Handicap at Newmarket last May.
The Middleham Park Racing gelding is the type of stayer his shrewd trainer excels with. The mount of Dylan Hogan is a horse to follow in valuable staying handicaps this season, starting with this Queen’s Prize.
Recommendation: Blindedbythelights - 7/2 with William Hill
2:25pm Doncaster - High On Hope (Each-Way)
On paper, this Lincoln consolation race (Spring Mile) looks a lot more competitive than the main event in just over an hour's time. At a big price, and with fitness guaranteed, I think the 25/1 currently available with Paddy Power about Mick Appleby’s HIGH ON HOPE (Each-Way) is too big, especially with 6 places on offer.
Half a length behind Lincoln favourite La Botte when fifth in Wolverhampton’s Lincoln Trial earlier in the month, Harry Davies’ mount failed to get the best of runs when fourth on that course last week, and if in the same kind of form as when winning races at Chelmsford and Kempton in January, is more than capable of outrunning his odds.
Recommendation: High On Hope (Each-Way) - 25/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
2:42pm Kempton - Gamrai
The betting for this £100k Roseberry Handicap is headed by Andrew Balding’s recent Chelmsford winner Respond. Now racing off a mark of 96, Jason Watson’s mount is worth taking on with the John & Thady Gosden-trained GAMRAI at a much bigger price.
Having been sent off at odds ranging from 1/4 to 15/8 for his four runs to date (the one victory coming in a Windsor maiden), the son of Lope De Vega is clearly well thought of. Gelded towards the back end of last year, Rob Hornby’s mount starts the campaign on a potentially lenient mark of 88 and is fancied to go well for his powerful stable.
Recommendation: Gamrai - 8/1 with BetVictor
2:57pm Doncaster - Docklands
Ralph Beckett’s Qirat is unlikely to be given the same kind of lead as when stealing Goodwood’s Group 1 Sussex Stakes last July, the Showcasing gelding unplaced on all three subsequent starts after the summer festival. The highest rated contender among the field of 5 is the Harry Eustace-trained DOCKLANDS, the trainer responsible for Lincoln favourite La Botte.
Like La Botte, the six-year-old will be partnered by jockey Jamie Spencer, and a victory in this £60k Doncaster Mile would bode well for a big run from their runner in the first major handicap of the new turf Flat season. Since progressing from handicaps, the son of Massaat has been running consistently well in Group company, a reproduction of his close fourth in Ascot’s Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes on Champions Day would be more than good enough to take this one mile Listed race.
Recommendation: Docklands - 7/4 with Ladbrokes
3:13pm Kempton - All Moonshine (Each-Way)
Third in a Group 1 at Riyadh last month, George Boughey’s Survie is officially rated 1lb lower than the Kevin Philippart De Foy-trained Cathedral, the pair at least 11lb ahead of the other 10 contenders in this Listed Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes. While the two fillies dominate the betting, I would prefer to look for a bit of value, in which case it could be worth taking a chance on the race-fit ALL MOONSHINE (Each-Way) for trainer Andrew Balding.
Rated 26lb below Cathedral, Jason Watson’s mount didn’t see a racecourse until finishing third at Newcastle four months ago, since when the daughter of Oasis Dream has won races at Southwell, Wolverhampton and over today’s course and distance, improving on each occasion.
While the filly has a mountain to climb based on ratings, the four-year-old is totally unexposed and may well prove to be better than her current mark would suggest.
Recommendation: All Moonshine (Each-Way) - 28/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:32pm Doncaster - La Botte (Nap)
Having backed the Harry Eustace-trained LA BOTTE (Nap) at 8/1 for today’s historic one mile handicap which dates back to the mid 19th century, the lightly-raced Too Darn Hot colt now heads the betting at around the 7/2 mark. While those odds look short enough for such a competitive contest, the case for Jamie Spencer’s mount is a pretty strong one.
Beaten a neck by Godolphin’s Arabian Story in Royal Ascot’s 30-runner Britannia Stakes at the royal meeting in June, La Botte wasn’t seen again until finishing an eyecatching fourth in Wolverhampton’s BetMGM Lincoln Trial earlier in the month when given a lot to do from the back, coming widest of all turning for home.
Eustace was recently quoted as saying that he has either the Listed Wolferton Stakes or Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes as possible Royal Ascot targets for La Botte after Doncaster. If the colt is to reach those kinds of heights, the selection should be winning the first major handicap of the season off a mark of 104. With 5 wins, trainer Wiliam Haggas holds the record for the race, and his Eternal Force is feared most. Best of those at a double-figure price may be Charles Hills’ Galeron, a close fifth in the race 12 months ago off a 7lb higher mark and now partnered by 5lb claimer Jack Callan.
Recommendation: La Botte (Nap) - 4/1 with William Hill
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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