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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
We enjoyed a fabulous week ending Sunday, 24 May, with a profit of +£26.58 to a £1 level stake, resulting in figures of +£70.00 for the month of May.
Refreshed following a break in the slightly cooler temperatures of Tenerife, the action moves on to Epsom this week for the Betfred Oaks and Derby, along with a fascinating Coronation Cup.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 24 May: +£26.58
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£139.50
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£640.16
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 6 June
ITV Racing will be covering the first six races on Betfred Derby Day at Epsom, the main event due to get underway at 4:00pm.
1:30pm Epsom - Never So Brave
I expect the Kingsclere stable of Andrew Balding, responsible for leading fancy Item in the feature race at 4.00pm, to get the day off to a perfect start courtesy of NEVER SO BRAVE in this 7f Group 3 contest. The highest rated of the 8 contenders, Oisin Murphy’s mount went from winning Royal Ascot’s Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) to Group 1 success in the City Of York Stakes at the Ebor meeting on the Knavesmire.
The No Nay Never gelding will be fitter for his run when fifth behind Opera Ballo and Field Of Gold in Sandown’s bet365 Mile on his reappearance and can prove too strong for Joseph O’Brien’s Irish raider Alcantor and Ten Bob Tony from the Ed Walker stable.
Recommendation: Never So Brave - 13/8 with Paddy Power
2:05pm Epsom - Sparks Fly
The more rain that falls at Epsom, the better for David Loughnane’s mudlover SPARKS FLY, the daughter of Muhaarah victorious on 12 occasions when the words soft or heavy have appeared in the going description. Far from disgraced when finishing a close fourth on good ground behind dual Derby winner Lambourn in Chester's Group 2 Huxley Stakes last month, Laura Pearson’s mount, an unlucky third in this race 12 months ago, gets the vote on this occasion despite having to concede weight to her 8 rivals.
Charlie Johnston’s Arisaig deserves to win a race of this nature for her consistency and is second choice ahead of Charlie Fellowes’ Shes Perfect.
Recommendation: Sparks Fly - 9/2 with William Hill
2:40pm Epsom - Calandagan (Nap)
Tactics are going to play a leading role in the outcome of this fascinating mile and a half Group 1 contest, the powerful Ballydoyle stable of Aidan O’Brien responsible for three of the six contenders. Their masterplan will almost certainly be to try and outstay favourite CALANDAGAN (Nap), as was the case in last year’s renewal.
The Coolmore team rarely get things wrong, a perfect example being last Sunday's Prix Du Jockey Club, a race totally dominated by Ballydoyle runners. While they will be discussing all possibilities in an effort to defeat the son of Gleneagles, I expect Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge to come out on top in this battle of tactics.
Beaten half a length by O’Brien's Jan Brueghel in this race 12 months ago, Mickael Barzalona’s mount is now unbeaten in five outings, all at Group 1 level and in four different countries. I think the five-year-old is now at the very peak of his powers and rightly deserves his accolade as the world’s best middle-distance performer. A race for the connoisseur.
Recommendation: Calandagan (Nap) - 5/4 with Betfred
3:15pm Epsom - Stormy Impact (Each-Way)
A lucky pin would come in very handy in an effort to find the winner of this 20-runner sprint handicap run over the fastest 5f in the world. In a race likely to be decided by the smallest of margins, the vote (Paddy Power are going 6 places) goes to last year’s winner STORMY IMPACT (Each-Way), who is once again reunited with talented 3lb claimer Warren Fentiman.
Now 2lb higher than when beating fellow rival Lexington Blitz by a length in the race 12 months ago when drawn in stall 7, Peter & Richard Fahey’s charge may be better berthed this time in stall 16, as I think the action could concern those horses coming up the stand side, in particular favourite Kinswoman, Brazen Bolt, Arklow Lad and the selection’s stablemate Vintage Clarets.
A never-nearer 16th of 21 at York’s Dante meeting on his reappearance (was sent off at odds of 40/1), the four-year-old son of Study Of Man has clearly been targeted at this race for some time.
Recommendation: Stormy Impact (Each-Way) - 16/1 with bet365 (5 places)
4:00pm Epsom (Derby) - Item & Action (Each-Way)
Having already advised Ballydoyle’s Frankel colt ACTION (Each-Way) in the ante-post market for the world’s greatest Flat race, I think Wayne Lordan’s mount still has a good chance of making the frame despite subsequent defeats in Sandown’s Classic Trial and most recently York’s Dante Stakes. Any further easing in the ground at Epsom will suit the stable’s supposed third-string.
Ballydoyle’s Benvenuto Cellini heads the betting following his comfortable victory in the Chester Vase on his reappearance. That looked like a pretty average renewal of the Group 3 trial however, while the son of Frankel ended his juvenile campaign with a well-beaten third behind Hawk Mountain and Action in Doncaster’s Futurity.
Stablemate Pierre Bonnard, while highly-rated, will need to do a lot better than when beaten on both of his starts at Leopardstown this season if he is to play a part in the outcome. Ancient Egypt, Bay Of Brilliance, James J Braddock and Maltese Cross all have each-way claims but possibly lack the class of a typical Derby winner.
When you look at the horses who have won York's Dante Stakes this century, it features an endless list of future superstars including the likes of Motivator, Authorized, Golden Horn and Desert Crown, not to mention Workforce, who was runner-up to Cape Blanco in 2010. Whether this year’s winner, ITEM, can follow in the footsteps of those top class performers remains to be seen, but Andrew Balding’s unbeaten colt gets the vote nevertheless.
In a race which may well be dominated by sons of the great Frankel, Juddmonte’s contender, following minor successes at Kempton Park and Bath, looked the real deal when proving far too good for runner-up Action and company on the Knavesmire, and on just his fourth career start, I will be surprised if there is not a lot more improvement to come from Colin Keane’s mount. A general 4/1 chance on Thursday afternoon, I expect odds of 9/2 or 5/1 to be available about Item at some point.
Recommendation: Item - 4/1 with BetVictor & Action (advised ante-post at 16/1 Each-Way)
4:40pm Epsom - Pendella & Allegresse
My two against the field for this valuable mile and a quarter three-year-old handicap are top weight ALLEGRESSE and PENDELLA towards the bottom of the handicap. The former makes his handicap debut off a mark of 93 for trainer Andrew Balding, the Oasis Dream gelding, following a couple of wins in minor company at Kempton Park in the autumn, was far from disgraced in finishing seventh behind Ballydoyle’s Pierre Bonnard in Newmarket’s Group 3 Zetland Stakes on his final outing as two.
Despite finishing last of 4 in a hot Conditions Stakes on his reappearance at Goodwood last month, Oisin Murphy's mount was only beaten a little over two lengths, looking as if he would improve plenty with that run under his belt. There are certainly no fitness issues regarding the Karl Burke-trained Pandella, who will be having her 6th start of the year, the most recent when caught late-on by Richard Hannon’s Pearl River at York after holding a clear lead 2 out.
I think this course is sure to suit the daughter of Space Blues, who could take some pegging back under talented 5lb claimer Jack Nicholls if the pair are allowed an uncontested lead up front.
Recommendations: Pendella - 10/1 with Coral & Allegresse - 11/2 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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