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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A small loss of -£5.54 for the week ending Sunday, April.
The horse racing action moves up several gears during the week ahead, culminating in Saturday’s Randox Grand National. Aintree’s three day meeting gets underway on Thursday afternoon, with the ground expected to be on the soft side of good.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 5 April: -£5.54
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£63.06
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£563.72
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 11 April
ITV Racing will be covering five races from Aintree on Saturday afternoon, culminating in the Randox Grand National at 4:00pm.
1:20pm Aintree - Jeriko Du Reponet (Each-Way)
Now 9lb higher than when winning the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival, Dan Skelton’s Supremely West is still expected to go off favourite for this extended 3m William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap) in the hands of jockey Harry Skelton. While it would be no surprise to see the Westerner gelding follow-up his victory at Prestbury Park, I prefer to side with Nicky Henderson’s top weight JERIKO DU REPONET (Each-Way) who returns to hurdles after failing to take to the bigger obstacles this season.
Last seen over hurdles at last season’s Punchestown Festival when winning a 23-runner handicap by over four lengths, the runner-up spot going to stablemate Doddiethegreat, who had previously won the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival with Jeriko Du Reponet a length and three quarters behind in second place.
A Grade 2 winner as a novice, Nico De Boinville’s mount is clearly a class act at his best and well capable of conceding the weight to his rivals in this valuable contest if those efforts over fences have not left their mark on the J P McManus-owned seven-year-old. Olly Murphy’s Hold The Serve is unbeaten in three starts since having wind surgery towards the end of last year and is one of many potential dangers along with Paul Nicholls’ Absolutely Doyen, who wasn’t disgraced in finishing 8th in the Pertemps and likely to be better suited by this course.
Recommendation: Jeriko Du Reponet (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (5 places)
1:55pm Aintree - Ballyfad
The key to the outcome of this Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is likely to come via last month’s Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the festival. The Dan Skelton-trained pair of Soldier Reeves and Bossman Jack finished fourth and sixth respectively behind the winner King Rasko Grey. Of the pair, it was the latter who came out as the unlucky horse of the race, the Jack Hobbs gelding holding every chance when making a bad mistake at the final hurdle.
While I expect Harry Skelton’s mount to reverse that form, it is the horse who finished back in 10th place, BALLYFAD, who may well prove the one to beat on this occasion. Gordon Elliott’s previously progressive five-year-old (finished ahead of King Rasko Grey in a Grade 1 at the DRF) was kicked at the start of the race at Prestbury Park, holding every chance until failing to quicken in the closing stages.
Jack Kennedy’s mount is better judged on previous efforts, and as the highest rated of the 13 contenders, gets the tentative vote in a race which makes limited appeal from a betting perspective. Alan King’s Charisma Cat may be best of those at a double-figure price.
Recommendation: Ballyfad - 4/1 with William Hill
2:30pm Aintree - Myretown (Each-Way)
A field of 18 for this £100k premier handicap chase ran over 3m 1f, but not the classiest of renewals, the 145-rated trio of Leave Of Absence, Lookaway and Konfusion heading the weights on 12st. While we have not seen the Russell/Scudamore-trained MYRETOWN (Each-Way) at anything like his best this season, Derek Fox’s mount may well have his ideal conditions this afternoon and is worth another chance to produce the kind of effort which saw the nine-year-old run his rivals ragged in last year’s Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival.
Up with the pace before dropping back following a mistake 4 out in this year’s Ultima, after which the son of Dylan Thomas could never get back into contention, eventually finishing 13th of the 22 runners. Dropped 2lb to a mark of 140, Myretown may well be allowed to dictate matters from the front and could prove difficult to pass if getting into a good rhythm. Of the four contenders who failed to make the cut for the National, Imperial Saint is expected to fare best in the hands of 3lb claimer Callum Richards.
Recommendation: Myretown (Each-Way) - 8/1 with William Hill (5 places)
3:05pm Aintree - Jingko Blue (Nap)
With the news that Gordon Elliott’s winning machine Wodhooh has not been declared for this Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle, the market is now headed by that horse’s stablemate Honesty Policy, winner of the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle here 12 months ago.
One of two runners for leading owner JP McManus, I prefer the chance of McManus’s other runner, Impose Toi for trainer Nicky Henderson. An impressive winner of a Pertemps qualifier under a big weight over today’s course and distance on his first run of the season, after which Nico De Boinville’s mount stepped-up in class to win Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle and the Long Walk at Ascot, beating both Strong Leader and Honesty Policy in the latter.
Never travelling in the Stayers’ Hurdle at last month’s festival, Impose Toi would have been the selection but for that below-par effort. However, one horse who produced a career-best at the festival was Impose Toi’s stablemate JINGKO BLUE (Nap), and in a division lacking an outstanding performer, I fancy James Bowen's mount to cope with today's set-up in class.
After winning his first two races over fences, Jingko Blue unseated his rider when odds-on favourite for Ascot’s Reynoldstown Chase in February, after which the Great Pretender gelding was sent back over hurdles. Heavily supported for the 24-runner BetMGM Cup (Premier Handicap) at the festival, Jingko Blue, after taking the field along, never looked in danger of defeat from some way out, coming home by a comfortable 6 lengths from runner-up Franciscan Rock.
Jingko Blue could improve yet again over today’s extra three and a half furlongs and can supply his trainer with a third victory in the race following those of Whisper in 2014 and 2015.
Recommendation: Jingko Blue (Nap) - 13/2 with bet365
4:00pm Aintree - Final Orders (Each-Way) (Advised Antepost), Captain Cody (Each-Way) & Gorgeous Tom (Each-Way)
Having already nominated Gavin Cromwell’s FINAL ORDERS in the antepost market for the race at odds of 50/1 (now no bigger than 25/1), I will add another couple of strings to my bow in the shape of CAPTAIN CODY (Each-Way) and GORGEOUS TOM (Each-Way), like Final Orders both with leading trainers from across the Irish Sea.
The Grand National is a completely different race to what it used to be in the 20th century, where the emphasis was on stamina and jumping ability. While those two factors are still important, changes to the course now favour horses with a touch of class and the potential to improve upon what they have so far achieved. It’s interesting that 6 of the last 10 winners of the race were eight-year-olds, the same age as both of our selections (Final Orders a 10-year-old).
Captain Cody, one of 9 runners for Closutton trainer Willie Mullins, has been campaigned with this race in mind since running out the comfortable winner of the Scottish Grand National 12 months ago (looked the winner from some way out in the hands of jockey Harry Cobden).
Apart from finishing a creditable 7th of 28 in Leopardstown’s Paddy Power Chase over Christmas (didn’t get the best of starts), the Arctic Cosmos gelding’s other runs have come on testing ground in Grade 3 and Grade 2 company. With a nice weight of 10st 10lb to carry, Jonathan Burke’s mount ticks plenty of boxes.
Fourth behind Lecky Watson in last year’s Grade 1 Browns Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival, Henry De Bromhead’s Gorgeous Tom is another who looks to have been laid out with today’s race in mind. Fourth behind fellow rival Panic Attack in the 24-runner Coral Gold Cup on his penultimate start (meets Dan Skelton’s runner on 8lb better terms), Sean Flanagan’s mount ran well to be beaten 6 lengths over an inadequate trip of just over 2m 5f in a handicap at Leopardstown last month and, like Captain Cody, is another who is more than capable of a big run if taking to Aintree’s unique fences.
Recommendations: Final Orders (Each-Way) (advised at 50/1 antepost), Captain Cody (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred (6 places) & Gorgeous Tom (Each-Way) - 28/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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