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Despite winners at 8/1 and 7/4 on Saturday, a minor loss of -£3.50 on the week, mainly down to blank days on Wednesday and Thursday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 29 March: -£3.50
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 2 April
Ground on the soft side of good is forecast for Thursday afternoon’s jumps cards at Kelso and Southwell.
3:10pm Kelso - Parish Star
Trainer Adam Nicol is having a cracking run at the moment (last four runners have all won as I write) and despite a below-par effort last time, I think his PARISH STAR may prove the one to beat in this Class 5 mares’ handicap hurdle.
Since joining Nicol from trainer Nigel Hawke last May, the daughter of Parish Hall won on her first two outings over hurdles for connections at Newcastle and Southwell before running no sort of a race when beaten 30 lengths as the 5/4 market leader at Carlisle on her most recent start in February.
That run was too bad to be true, as can often happen with mares, but following a break of six weeks and on better ground, Ryan Mania’s mount can continue her progression off the same mark of 80 in a race lacking any strength in depth. Green Bonnet is open to some improvement from the Russell/Scudamore team, while Neil Mulholland’s top weight Miss Carbo has to be considered under a 7lb penalty for her recent victory at Hereford.
Recommendation: Parish Star - 9/2 with bet365
3:32pm Chepstow - Knight Of Allen (Nap)
An excellent turnout for this Class 2 handicap chase, the field headed by Gary & Josh Moore’s Blow Your Wad, last seen finishing an excellent fourth, beaten a length and a half, behind the Grand National-bound pair of Johnnywho and Jagwar in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival. With the 3lb claim of jockey Freddie Mitchell, the eight-year-old has strong claims in an effort to concede the weight to his seven rivals.
Pulled-up in the Ultima was the Jane Williams-trained KNIGHT OF ALLEN (Nap), who is set to meet Gary & Josh Moore’s charge on 8lb better terms today. Ciaran Gething’s mount was sent off at a shorter price than Blow Your Wad for that 22-runner handicap but failed to get the run of the race.
Slowly away, the six-year-old made a bad mistake and nearly lost his jockey at the 10th fence, after which the gelding was badly hampered by a faller three fences later. Dropped 4lb to a mark of 127, the previously progressive son of Masterstroke is fancied to repeat his Newbury victory of just before Christmas with a bit more luck on this occasion.
Second to subsequent National Hunt Chase winner Holloway Queen prior to that unfortunate experience at the festival, Knight Of Allen may have most to fear from the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-trained Soldierofthestorm, who landed a bit of a gamble on his second run over fences at Sandown last month.
Recommendation: Knight Of Allen (Nap) - 11/4 with bet365
4:46pm Kelso - Visual Impact
The Russell/Scudamore stable are represented by both Lady In The Park, the mount of 5lb claimer Jack Power, and VISUAL IMPACT with stable jockey Derek Fox on board, in this extended 2m 7f handicap chase, preference being for the latter who will be having her fifth start over fences.
The daughter of Westerner was runner-up on her final three starts over hurdles before making her chasing debut with a promising third in a 12-runner Go North Monet’s Garden Series Qualifier at Ayr five months ago. While the mare failed to build on that first effort over fences on her next two starts, both on soft ground, the seven-year-old was in the process of running a big race at the Scottish racecourse five weeks ago when falling at the final fence in a 3m handicap.
While Visual Impact would probably not have beaten eventual winner Blakey Boy, the form received a boost when that horse followed-up on this track last month off a 9lb higher mark. Due to go up 3lb in the future, the selection is fancied to open her account over fences with a similar effort on today’s good to soft ground.
My Lady Elektra, runner-up over today’s course and distance on her second outing over fences may give Visual Impact most to do if fit enough on her first start for over four months.
Recommendation: Visual Impact - 5/1 with bet365
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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