Cheltenham Tips: Day 1 Tuesday Predictions for All 7 Races
It's time for the greatest week of the year, and my Cheltenham tips for the first day of the meeting are all below.
I've got a pick for every single race of the first day, and there's plenty of big priced runners in there, for what I think is a competitive day of action, arguably the most competitive day one we've had for a few years.
There's no odds on favourites, a whole host of questions, and plenty of superstars on show.
It's the greatest show on turf, and Free Bets has every angle covered.
Cheltenham Day 1 Tips
I've gone through every race in detail, and have seven picks below, one for every race. Each pick comes with the latest odds from UK betting sites so you can see where the market currently sits.
Before moving on, we've also got two huge enhanced odds offers for the opening day of action, from Paddy Power and Ladbrokes.
There's 60/1 enhanced odds on the two Arkle favourites, and 33/1 on Dan Skelton to bag a winner in any race at the festival.
Tip 1 - 1:20pm Cheltenham
The Supreme Novices' Hurdle looks far more open than we're used to. I think there will be star quality in here somewhere, but I'm not really able to pin point it yet, and plenty of the main contenders have question marks hanging over them.
Mighty Park lacks experience for a test of this nature, while El Cairos and Talk The Talk both have jumping issues, the latter of those also has a question mark over being at his best at two miles too.
Old Park Star looks rock solid, but a superstar in waiting? I'm not sure he is, and at 5/2, I don't think he offers value.
Instead, I'll go to one of the outsiders, the Willie Mullins second strong and Leader d'Allier, who according to Ruby Walsh, has taken a nice step forward in recent weeks.
Strong bumper form in France, a good win last time at Punchestown, he's yet to really burst onto the scene, but has fewer questions to answer than some. At 16/1, I think he's a better option as an each way bet, and could really come into it if a few of the more fancied runners make the mistakes they've made before.
- Leader d'Allier (EW) 16/1 with BetVictor & Ladbrokes
Tip 2 - 2:00pm Cheltenham
The fast and furious pace of the Arkle Chase always causes problems, and we've seen fancied runners struggle here before. We could see a superstar performance, but from a betting point of view, an upset is the way I'm heading.
Lulamba could well win next year's King George, but at two miles, I think there's every chance he gets run off his feet. Kopek Des Bordes showed us he was a star in waiting last year, but troubles have seen him run just once over fences, it's a massive ask to win this on the back of just one chase start.
Kargese looks smart, but she's short given the rest of the market, and I've landed on Jax Junior as my nomination to cause a shock.
Three from five so far over fences, he had excuses when losing (first time up, and then bled from the nose). He comes here on the back of a six and a half length Grade Two success last month, where Tom Cannon was positively beaming when he got off him.
Cannon has been very complimentary in the run up, and nominates this horse as his best chance all week. He's got the experience, this is the ideal trip, and he jumps for fun. There's plenty of worse 25/1 shots on Tuesday's card.
- Jax Junior (EW) 25/1 with William Hill
Tip 3 - 2:40pm Cheltenham
I think the James Owen trained Ammes has a great chance in the juvenile handicap hurdle, and rates as my bet of the opening day.
He's been off for 130 days over hurdles, after running three times at the start of the season, but a spin on the flat just 17 days ago means there are no fitness concerns.
Running off 128, with 11st 4lb, he's got a great racing weight, and I'm convinced he's got at least a few pounds to spare in his mark.
Running behind Minella Study last time out, that horse has since won a Triumph Hurdle trial and is now rated 139, he was less than a length ahead of Ammes of level weights.
Ammes comes here with a rating of 128, strictly on form, he's very nicely in.
- Ammes (NAP) (EW) 8/1 with William Hill & Coral (both 5 places)
Tip 4 - 3:20pm Cheltenham
The Sue Smith yard was my go-to for Northern runners for many years, the past couple haven't been as strong, but this year we've seen an impressive resurgence.
Those following their horses like I do will remember Vintage Clouds landing this race from the front a few years back, and I'd love nothing more than for Konfusion to do the same.
His front running style has already seen him land the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby and Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle this season.
He landed the first of those off 126, the second off 136 and today he runs off 145, so more is needed. But his running style puts him in with a chance, and I think at a big price, he can go well.
- Konfusion (EW) 16/1 with multiple (6 places)
Tip 5 - 4:00pm Cheltenham
I've been a big believer in The New Lion and I can't leave him on his big day. For the first time this season, he'll have a race run to suit, a true two mile test, and we'll find out once and for all whether this is his trip or not.
They went slow in the Fighting Fifth, and again in the International Hurdle, completely against him on both occasions, he fell in the first and won the second, scrambling over the line.
Here though, the pace will be strong, he'll have something to aim at and when they turn for home, if he's close enough, I certainly think he's good enough.
Dan Skelton reports him to be in the best shape he's had him all season, which is a positive. But of course it's not time to deliver that on the track.
There's question marks over the rest, like there is for The New Lion. Lossiemouth with the trip, Brighterdaysahead with her Cheltenham form and Golden Ace for quality.
I don't think it's vintage in terms of quality, but it could be an absolute classic renewal.
- The New Lion - 10/3 with multiple
Tip 6 - 4:40pm Cheltenham
A wide open Plate Handicap, but Downmexicoway catches the eye for Henry de Bromhead. He'll appreciate the step up in trip here, and comes in with a nice profile.
Four chase starts so far, there's definitely more to come from him, and he's won two of them, including a handicap off 134 in nice style.
Last time out, he chased home Romeo Coolio and Kargese, two horses running in Grade One contests this week.
While he did finish 23 lengths off the winner, he was looked after in that, and could have got closer, if he'd wanted to. This is calmer, and has a positive with the additional three furlongs.
- Downmexicoway (EW) 9/1 with BOYLE Sports & Betway (both 6 places)
Tip 7 - 5:20pm Cheltenham
A good judge I know, Charlie McCann, has been banging the drum for One Big Bang and I can definitely see why.
Rather foolishly, I'll ignore him, and instead hope we see another step forward from Walking On Air, with the eye catching booking of Harry Cobden.
It was much better last time out, third in the Great Yorkshire Chase, and he's got plenty of big handicap experience that's sure to help in a test like this
I think the trip will be fine too, he's been tried in the Scottish Grand National, pulling up last year, but it makes me believe the yard certainly think he can get a trip like this.
He didn't like the hussle and bustle of the Kim Muir last year, but I'm hoping with more experience on his back, he can go better here.
- Walking On Air (EW) 12/1 with multiple (5 places)
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