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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A small loss of £0.70 for the week ending Sunday, 23 November, although we did have three out of five winning naps (one non-runner), the big disappointment being the dismal run of Il Est Francais at Ascot on Saturday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 23 November: -£0.70
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£71.13
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£557.12
Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 26 November
Ground on the soft side of good is expected for Wednesday’s two jumps cards, at Wetherby and Market Rasen.
1:08pm Wetherby - Spadestep (Nap)
The J P McManus-owned My Noble Lord makes his chasing debut in this Go North Forgive ‘N Forget Series Qualifier. The four-year-old, a winner on his hurdling debut at Chepstow last October, looks sure to do well over fences for the Greenall/Guerriero team, while the Warren Greatrex-trained Quantock Hills should come on for the first run over fences when third at Newton Abbot last month.
However, I will be disappointed if the promising SPADESTEP (Nap) from the Russell/Scudamore stable fails to open his account over fences at the second attempt, and off what may turn out to be a lenient mark of 116. A point-to-point winner in Ireland around this time last year, the son of Jukebox Jury was narrowly beaten on his first two starts over hurdles before getting off the mark with a comfortable victory at Hexham last month.
Making his chasing debut at Aintree later that month, Derek Fox’s mount led until joined by winner Jordans Cross at the last, eventually finishing second of the six runners, beaten two and a half lengths. Three weeks later the winner was sent off favourite for a hot novices’ handicap at Cheltenham, only to fall at the last when challenging for the lead.
From a stable which does so well with its novice chasers, it would not surprise me if Spadestep, who wears a tongue-tie for the first time, proves much better than his current rating would indicate.
Recommendation: Spadestep (Nap) - 5/4 with bet365
2:09pm Wetherby - Mister Smarty (Each-Way)
The Cleveland stable of Tina Jackson has not had a winner over jumps for the best part of 11 months, although Missmimi provided them with a welcome success on the flat at Redcar three weeks ago. That last victory over timber came courtesy of Mister Smarty’s win at Wetherby on Boxing Day, the eight-year-old following up his victory of 12 days earlier at Newcastle, on the gelding’s first start for 294 days.
After winning that Newcastle race, the son of Black Sam Bellamy was sent off favourite for his subsequent five starts of the season, and while successful in only the one on this course, ran with credit in the other four. Despite all of last season’s runs coming at class 5 level, I think Ross Chapman’s mount is capable of proving competitive at this higher grade, especially in receipt of weight from his 11 rivals.
Top weight Onewaywest represents the in-form stable of Ben Pauling, and with the 10lb claim of rider Elliott England, the Westerner gelding will be fancied by many to follow-up his comfortable victory at Warwick last week. Henrietta Knight’s Motazzen is another with strong claims along with course and distance winner Aire Spray. But with several bookmakers offering 4 places, MISTER SMARTY (Each-Way) gets the vote.
Recommendation: Mister Smarty (Each-Way) - 8/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:25pm Market Rasen - Marsh Wren
While Henry Daly’s Minniemum is 3 from 5 over fences and goes into this Listed mares’ chase on the back on a victory at Ludlow earlier in the month, Sam Twiston-Davies’ mount will struggle to match strides with the two highest-rated contenders for this 3m contest, the Faye Bramley-trained Paggane and last year’s winner MARSH WREN from the Stuart Edmunds stable.
With two runs already this season, the advantage probably lies with Harry Cobden's mount, three years younger than Marsh Wren and currently rated 3lb higher. The mount of Charlie Hammond has a great record fresh however, and is 2 from 2 on the course, the first coming over hurdles back in 2022.
The nine-year-old daughter of Schiaparelli has very few miles on the clock, as this will be just the mare’s seventh start over fences, the most recent of four victories coming in this race last year when beating Lucinda Russell’s Apple Away by 16 lengths. In what should be a fascinating duel between the two mares, Marsh Wren gets the vote, with today’s trip of three miles possibly more in her favour than Paggane, whose Carlisle win came over half a mile shorter.
Recommendation: Marsh Wren - 5/4 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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