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A disappointing week ending Sunday, 22 March, or should I say a disappointing Saturday, as we were just in front going into the weekend. Three seconds at odds of 11/4, 15/2 and 10/1 proved frustrating, in particular the head defeat of Knickerbockerglory at Bangor. I also thought our 22/1 selection Wasthatok was still going well when failing to avoid the fall of The Navigator at Kelso.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 22 March: -£6.77
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£72.10
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£572.76
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 23 March
Tuesday afternoon’s horse racing action comes from the jumps cards at Taunton and Southwell, with ground conditions described as good at both fixtures.
2:30pm Southwell - Shadowfax Of Rohan (Nap)
Of the three joint top weights for this five-runner two miles novices’ handicap chase, the one who boasts the strongest claims is the Laura Morgan-trained Classical Sting, who made a successful debut over fences at Kelso in November and now returns to the bigger obstacles following the six-year-old’s creditable second over hurdles on this course earlier in the month.
I think Danny McMenamin’s mount will struggle to concede the best part of a stone to Patrick Neville’s SHADOWFAX OF ROHAN (Nap) however, the mount of 3lb claimer Charlie Maggs. The grey six-year-old made all to record a comfortable victory on his chasing debut at Catterick last month before failing to follow-up at odds of ½ under a 7lb penalty on that course a week later.
Despite finishing 16 lengths clear of the third horse, Shadowfax Of Rohan was no match for Sandy Thomson’s Marty McFly. However, that horse went on to win again, his fourth victory in a row, when defying a 7lb higher mark at Carlisle on Sunday. Racing off the same mark of 86 as at the North Yorkshire racecourse last time, the Sholokhov gelding can get back to winning ways in a race which looks his for the taking with a decent round of jumping.
Recommendation: Shadowfax Of Rohan (Nap) - 5/4 with Coral
3:15pm Taunton - Man Oh Man
Despite a field of 15 for this modest Class 5 handicap hurdle, it is hard to make a case out for many of the runners. Robert Walford’s St Luke’s Chelsea probably sets the standard based on his close third over today’s course and distance of two weeks ago, while Neil Mulholland’s Castle Quarter, despite being the oldest member of the party at the age of 10, would have a major shout if repeating his third place at Wincanton on Boxing Day behind Nick Scholfield’s Queenie St Clair, who gave the form a boost when winning the Herring Queen Series Final at Kelso on Saturday.
The third horse with strong claims is the seven-year-old MAN OH MAN, who will be sporting cheekpieces for the first time. Quietly fancied to take a 2m 3f handicap on this course back in November, Brian Carver’s mount, after holding every chance jumping the final hurdle, weakened into third place on the run-in, looking as if a drop back to today’s trip would suit.
Racing on much softer ground when beaten at Ffos Las and Taunton on his two most recent starts, Man Oh Man should appreciate today’s conditions, and off a career-low mark of 80, looks sure to go close.
Recommendation: Man Oh Man - 13/2 with bet365
3:30pm Southwell - Peckforton Hills
Laura Horsfall’s Jack The Savage will attempt to follow-up his Hereford victory of earlier in the month, once again with claimer Isabelle Ryder doing the steering in this extended 3m conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. After holding a clear lead at the final hurdle, the nine-year-old just held off the late challenge of favourite Welcheston Warrior in what looked a pretty weak contest.
Despite proving no match for top weight Diamond Koda in a similar race at Doncaster last month, I think the performance of runner-up PECKFORTON HILLS would be more than good enough for the Greenall/Guerriero-trained Youmzain gelding to go one better today on just his fifth start over hurdles.
The mount of Tristan Durrell was well-supported on his first two outings in handicap company (5/2 and 3/1), and off a 1lb lower mark, will never have a better opportunity to open his account than in a race where recent worthwhile form is almost non-existent.
Recommendation: Peckforton Hills - 2/1 with bet365
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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