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Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 29 July
The Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes (3:35pm) is the feature race on day 3 on the Glorious Goodwood Festival, while over in Ireland the Guinness Galway Hurdle (6:30pm) headlines the 8-race card on Thursday evening.
2:25pm Goodwood - Night In Vegas (Nap)
Simon & Ed Crisford’s unbeaten Flann Sunna heads the betting for this Group 2 Richmond Stakes at a current best price of 9/4. While William Buick’s mount demands the utmost respect, I prefer to rely on the stronger form of Royal Ascot’s Coventry Stakes, with the second, fourth and fifth horses home all taking each other on once again.
Hugo Palmer’s Adaay Of Scarlett came out best on that occasion, with necks separating the next three horses home, Royal Heritage, Cut A Dash and NIGHT IN VEGAS (Nap). After receiving a bump when coming to challenge a furlong out, I thought Eve Johnson Houghton’s charge was the unlucky horse of the race.
A previous winner at Ascot and over today’s course and distance, Charles Bishop’s mount is fancied to come out on top this time for a stable with a decent bunch of juveniles this season.
Recommendation: Night In Vegas (Nap) - 4/1 with bet365
3:00pm Goodwood - Geryon
The last horse to win this St Leger trial before going on to win the final classic of the season was Ballydoyle’s Jan Brueghel two years ago. Whether this year’s renewal has any bearing on the outcome of the world’s oldest classic remains to be seen, the two shortest priced horses among this field of seven being Enceladus (25/1) and Bay Of Brilliance (33/1).
A victory for either would almost certainly put them in the picture for Doncaster. However, I think the one to beat does not hold a St Leger entry, Ger Lyon’s Irish challenger GERYON. Despite winning only one of his three starts as a juvenile, the son of Lope De Vega was unlucky to come up against the Ballydoyle pair of Constitution River and Hawk Mountain in the other two, finishing second on both occasions.
After posting creditable efforts on his first four outings of the current campaign, the mount of Colin Keane impressed when winning Leopardstown’s Meld Stakes two weeks ago. While Geryon has a 3lb penalty to carry for winning that Group 3 contest, today’s step-up in trip is sure to suit the selection.
Recommendation: Geryon - 4/1 with William Hill
4:30pm Galway - Starting Fifteen (Each-Way)
As you would expect, a wide open renewal of this Galway Hurdle, featuring a maximum field of 20 runners. The betting is headed by Jack Kennedy’s mount El Cairos, one of four runners for trainer Gordon Elliott, one less than Closutton handler Willie Mullins.
El Cairos will be making his handicap debut off a mark of 143 following runs in Grade 1 races at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals earlier in the year. Fifth, beaten nine lengths behind Old Park Star in the Supreme at Prestbury Park, the No Risk At All gelding may well prove to be better than his current rating.
Best of the Mullins’ team is probably Murcia, the mount of Paul Townsend, who will be spot-on for today’s race following a couple of runs on the Flat. Another horse with a similar profile to that of El Cairos is the Eric McNamara-trained STARTING FIFTEEN (Each-Way), who was last seen finishing fifth in a Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting. With a rating 8lb lower than that of El Cairos, Sean Flanagan’s mount has achieved enough to suggest he could be well treated off a mark of 135 for this valuable contest.
Recommendation: Starting Fifteen (Each-Way) - 12/1 with William Hill (5 places)
4:45pm Goodwood - The Bookkeeper & Mia Fantasia
My two against the field for this 20-runner nursery are the Hugo Palmer-trained Mia Fantasia and The THE BOOKKEEPER from the Richard Hughes stable, although a big run from Brian Meehan’s Cilician would come as no surprise with jockey Tom Marquand booked to ride.
Trainer Richard Hughes was a formidable jockey when riding at this meeting and now likes nothing better than to saddle a winner on the Sussex Downs. Hughes clearly means business with the booking of Ryan Moore for the son of Sioux Nation, who looked to be crying out for today’s trip after staying-on to finish fourth in the 6f Woodcote Stakes at Epsom’s Derby meeting.
MIA FANTASIA, despite looking very green on his debut at Carlisle last month, won going away before attempting to follow-up at Ascot 19 days ago. While only third behind Oliver Cole’s Dr Rascal at the Berkshire racecourse, that horse went on to win Tuesday’s Vintage Stakes, in which case an opening handicap mark of 79 may have underestimated the ability of Mia Fantasia.
Recommendation: The Bookkeeper - 7/1 with bet365 & Mia Fantasia - 10/1 with bet365
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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