EFL Tips: Gab Sutton's Championship, League 1 & League 2 Tips for December 13
After the second round of the FA Cup last weekend, we're back with a full complement of EFL fixtures this week, starting with West Brom vs Sheffield United on Friday night.
Free Bets' EFL expert Gab Sutton has lined up his top EFL betting tips for the best of this weekend's EFL fixtures.
EFL Betting Tips
Here are Gab's five betting tips this weekend - perfect for a weekend EFL acca - plus the best prices and latest odds from our selection of UK betting sites.
Birmingham vs Charlton - Birmingham to win
Birmingham’s home form this season has been sensational.
Poor away form might be the reason Chris Davies’ side sit 11th, rather than in the top six, but at St Andrews they’ve been unplayable, winning six of their nine league games.
Blues have won each of their last four in B9, scoring a whopping 14 goals, as the strike-pairing of Marvin Ducksch and Jay Stansfield has proved deadly, with plenty of support from wide in the shape of Patrick Roberts and Demarai Gray.
Ducksch has provided the physical presence to streamline Stansfield’s game, allowing him to worry less about the back-to-goal work which isn’t his forte, while Roberts and Gray have added trickery, flair and guile.
Tommy Doyle has been a driving force in midfield alongside the cultured Paik Seung-Ho, while Tomoki Iwata moving into an inverted right-back role was a stroke of genius from Davies.
So, Blues have all the ingredients to dominate against an out-of-form Charlton side, who will be glad to have banked nearly half the points they’ll need to stay up so early in the season.
After hitting 23 points as early as November, the Addicks have lost their last five league games, shipping 14 goals.
Plymouth vs Rotherham - Double Chance: Draw/Rotherham
In marking Plymouth Argyle at 11/10 best price, the traders clearly believe the Devonians have the quality of playing personnel to haul themselves out of the drop zone, and that two wins in their last four league games – including a 1-0 victory at Wycombe in midweek – can be the catalyst.
That confidence may be slightly misplaced for now, though, because while there is undoubtedly talent in that squad, they’re 23rd in December for a reason, and they’ve lost 12 of their first 19 league games.
Plus, it may not be an entire coincidence that the two recent victories, the other coming at fellow strugglers Port Vale, have come away from home.
The Green Army are a loud and passionate fanbase, but they’re understandably not happy at the moment, with supporters asking all the big questions of those at the top of the club.
For that reason, sometimes playing on the road can take some of the pressure off, whereas at home, one or two mistakes can exacerbate pre-existing frustrations.
For that reason, Argyle at a shade of odds-against doesn’t hold much appeal, and the value could be with Rotherham, for whom Wednesday’s 3-0 home loss to Blackpool was a first defeat in 10.
Plus, the Millers boast one of the best goalkeepers in the division, in Cameron Dawson, and one of the best midfielders in Dan Gore, while Argyle are missing one of the best strikers in Lorent Tolaj, who concludes his suspension this weekend.
Stockport vs Stevenage - Double Chance: Draw/Stevenage
As a rule, nobody in mid-December should be a shade of odds-on to avoid defeat against an opponent with an inferior PPG return.
There may be exceptions to that rule, such as if a team is woefully out of form, is severely depleted and/or facing a runaway leader on a mad winning streak, but in general it’s fair to draw the line there.
Stevenage are 11/10 via the double chance market at Stockport, despite having accrued 31 points from their first 17 games, where their hosts have amassed 32 from 18.
Clearly, the traders think the shot data Boro are posting is unsustainable, but Stockport’s performances have also been unconvincing.
The visitors have one of the best goalkeepers in the division in Filip Marschall, and two of the most reliable centre-backs in Charlie Goode and Carl Piergianni, with Jordan Houghton and Harvey White offering an excellent midfield platform – and in Jamie Reid, they have somebody who can finish.
Cheltenham vs Harrogate - Cheltenham to win
Had the League Two season began when Steve Cotterill returned to the club he’s revered at, for his first stint in the late ‘90s and early ‘00s, Cheltenham Town would be seventh with 16 points from nine games.
It’s been a seismic turnaround for the Robins, but because they only started with four points from 10, they remain as low as 19th – but upwardly mobile.
So, while on paper this fixture reads 19th against 23rd, and only a four-point gap between these sides, in reality they’re coming into the game from different starting points.
The hosts have momentum on their side, visitors Harrogate have taken a mere two points from their last nine league games, and both of those – at Notts County and Barnet – have been through goalkeeping masterclasses from stalwart James Belshaw.
To make matters worse, there’s two players who have scored more than two goals this season – Jack Muldoon and Stephen Duke-McKenna are on five apiece – and the latter, one of the few bright sparks, has torn his ACL.
Long-serving boss Simon Weaver has proved reliable in the past, but he’s limited on options right now and has found it difficult to find solutions.
Newport vs Fleetwood - Fleetwood to win
The fact Fleetwood are as big as 7/5 for the away win, having been clearly a far better team than Newport for half a season, suggests the bookies a banking on the hosts enjoying a new manager bounce under Christian Fuchs.
The theory has some merit, given that this can sometimes happen – we mentioned the example of Cheltenham in our previous selection.
Whereas Cheltenham were not only reappointing club legend, but also somebody with a wealth of higher level experience and survival expertise, however, Newport have gone for a complete unknown.
Fuchs has been coaching in America for two years, his knowledge of this level is likely to be limited, and he’s having to adapt to the pressures and demands of the job, with a club’s EFL status at stake, straight away – no pre-season to ease himself in.
And, while a 2-2 draw at Crewe in his first league game suggests there’s some early fight, to come back at the end with 10-men, it was a different story in the FA Cup, where they lost 3-0 at National League side Boreham Wood.
In essence, there’s not enough evidence that the Exiles are about to enjoy a huge revival, to outweigh the contrary evidence that Fleetwood are the clear better team.
Pete Wild’s side have a top midfield trio in Harrison Neal, Elliot Bonds and Mark Helm, one of the best strikers in the division in Ryan Graydon, and a compact defensive shape.
If the visitors were evens, this might be a different conversation, but at 7/5 there’s plenty of value with Fleetwood.
More Football Tips
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