EFL Tips: Gab Sutton's Five EFL Bets November 15
Gab Sutton 
It might be the international break, but there's still plenty of League One and League Two action this weekend with the Championship on hiatus.
Free Bets' EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks out his best football tips and predictions for the weekend’s EFL action.
EFL Betting Tips
Here's Gab's five EFL tips this weekend, along with the best prices and latest odds from our selection of best betting sites.
Port Vale vs Wycombe
It’s been an instant transformation for Wycombe under Michael Duff.
The Northern Irishman took charge of the Chairboys struggling at the foot on League One, yet since his arrival, only Bolton and Stockport have enjoyed a better seven-game return.
And, with the league looking so open, due to big hitters like Luton and Huddersfield not taking things by storm, and 31 games to play, Wanderers have every chance of breaking the top six.
The Buckinghamshire outfit almost have to be priced as a different proposition since the change of management, yet with odds of 8/5 best price on the away victory, the traders only think they have a 38.5% chance of winning at strugglers Port Vale.
The Valiants are bottom of the table having lost their last three, and are winless in five, with some fans questioning harmony, or leadership in the group, and others even looking at their promotion-winning manager, Darren Moore.
The hosts have taken just five points from their first seven home games, too, with two of their three league wins coming on the road.
Accrington vs Bristol Rovers
There could be some interest in backing Bristol Rovers in Saturday’s game, if only from a pure value perspective.
The obvious caveat is that there do seem to be some structural issues for the Gas, dating back a couple of years, that may have seeped into culture, something Darrell Clarke tends to address very quickly in other jobs – but hasn’t quite yet at the Mem.
Having said that, Rovers do have bags on individual quality, and if you look player-for-player on paper, it’s a top seven squad, whereas if you look player-for-player at Accrington Stanley’s group, it’s a bottom two squad.
Does football always work like that? Of course not, but the Gas are likely to be in the lowest position they’ll be in all season in 17th, Stanley probably at the highest, in 20th, and even then the visitors have three more points.
Plus, Darrell Clarke’s side recently won 2-1 at Bromley in the FA Cup, then were unlucky to lose 1-0 at home to Gillingham having had the more chances and territory in that last home game, even if it was a fifth straight league defeat.
If the prices were any different, it would be harder to make the case for Rovers, but they’re 12/5 underdogs at the Crown, which seems a little misplaced – and can be backed at 11/10 for the draw no bet, which refunds the stake if the game ends honours even.
Cambridge vs Barnet
With Cambridge as big as 33/20 for the home win, and Barnet 23/10 best-priced, the traders anticipate an even contest at the Abbey, with the hosts slight favourites.
A draw would come as no surprise in a clash between two well-matched teams, who are level on 22 points after 15 games.
If we wish to put a different angle on this, though, the numbers say the U’s seem to perform better in the first half, when they’re at home, while the Bees play better in the second half, when they’re away.
So, one possible way this game could go is that the Neil Harris’ team enjoy an aggressive start in which they put lots of pressure on the hosts, Kylian Kouassi is a handful up top, and the visitors find it difficult to find the breathing space to get their possession game going.
Whereas, in the second half, the hosts may find it hard to sustain their aggressive approach with an experienced side, featuring players like Michael Morrison and Pelly Ruddock-M’Panzu who are at the ends of their careers, and that gives Dean Brennan’s men the room to grow into the game.
For that reason, for a 14/1 shot, the angle of Cambridge leading at the break and Barnet coming back to claim a valuable away point could hold appeal.
Fleetwood vs Swindon
Both teams have scored in 73% of Fleetwood’s league matches this season, and 60% of Swindon’s.
Straight away, the chances of a high-scoring encounter look good, from a pure numbers perspective – but they also feed into that from a stylistic point of view.
The hosts create a lot of their chances through technical midfielder Elliot Bonds clipping a ball over the top for their strikers, often Will Davies and Ryan Graydon, who love to threaten in behind.
Sometimes, Town’s forwards can struggle against deep, compact rear-guards, but visitors Swindon can be susceptible to those types of attacks, largely because they don’t have an orthodox holding midfielder, and their wing-backs stay high and wide.
Conversely, the visitors offer a multitude of threats, from the target man presence of Ollie Palmer, to the creativity of Tom Nichols and Darren Oldaker, to left wing-back Finley Munroe who hit a lovely strike for the winner against Tranmere last week.
Swindon are reclaiming their status as one of the best teams to watch in League Two, and could produce another entertaining encounter, helped by facing one of the best counter-attacking sides in the league.
Shrewsbury vs Newport
Newport look somewhat underrated for their trip to Shrewsbury.
These are two sides in similar positions – both in the bottom two, in fact, but with recent signs of resurgence – so it seems surprising that one team is fancied by the bookmakers too strongly over another.
True, Shrewsbury have steadied the ship recently with home wins over Cambridge and Crawley, sandwiched by steady away points at Barrow and Oldham, but then they went down easily at Crewe last time out in a 3-1 defeat.
It’s similar with Newport: they’d taken just five points from their first 11 games, but have shown signs of recovery with two wins in four, winning at Accrington Stanley and Harrogate.
The Exiles have struggled from a lack of leadership this season, which is why they’re bottom, but they also have plenty of high-end talent: Manchester United loanee Habeeb Ogunneye at right-back, and Kai Whitmore, Sammy Braybrooke and Cameron Antwi in midfield.
If County can find a synergy between the group they have at the moment, and some characters can start to emerge, they’ve got more than enough potential in the squad to clamber out of this.
Will that happen? Who knows, but for them to be 20/21 double chance away to a team in an almost identical position to them seems generous.
More Football Tips
Check out below for more tips and predictions on this week's football action, with Premier League as well as EFL betting tips.
