Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Wincanton on Boxing Day for his best bet of the day
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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Not the best of weeks in the lead up to the Christmas period with a loss of -£10.89.
Impose Toi advertised his Stayers Hurdle claims with a victory in Saturday’s Long Walk Hurdle and still looks decent value at the 8/1 currently available with bet365.
Held-up right at the back in a slowly run race, Saturday’s nap Mondo Man was always going to struggle in an effort to make up the ground, but there is a decent handicap to be won with Gary & Josh Moore’s charge this season.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 21 December: -£10.89
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£45.02
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£531.01
Alan Kelly's Tips - Boxing Day
With a settled weather forecast over the Christmas period, all eight Boxing Day meetings in Britain (including the all-weather card at Wolverhampton) should go ahead as planned along with the three Irish cards at Leopardstown, Limerick and Down Royal.
The feature race from Kempton park is the Ladbrokes King George V1 Chase, the 3m Grade 1 contest set to take place at 2:30pm.
12:45pm Kempton - Barlovento
Jamie Snowden’s Epic West and Jasmine Bliss from the Harry Derham stable are interesting contenders for this extended 2m 4f novices’ limited handicap on their chasing debuts. Unbeaten on both of his starts over fences, Nicky Henderson’s Noble Park was particularly impressive in winning by 24 lengths at Lingfield last month from a horse, Vanderpoel, who went one better at Ascot last week courtesy of a comfortable seven length victory over his three rivals.
Nico de Boinville’s mount will be fancied by many to land the hat-trick, despite a steep rise of 11lb for that latest success. Preference, however, is for the Olly Murphy-trained BARLOVENTO, the mount of champion jockey Sean Bowen. Winner of a Carlisle novices’ hurdle last October when beating last week’s impressive Tommy Whittle winner Grande Geste, Barlovento made his chasing debut at Exeter last month following an absence of 300 days.
Beaten just half a length by fellow rival U Cant Be Serious after looking the winner for much of the race, the Soldier Of Fortune gelding should have little trouble reversing that form on 7lb better terms and with that run under his belt. A beaten favourite over hurdles on heavy ground at Leicester earlier in the year, the selection will be much more at home under today’s conditions of good to soft, good in places.
Recommendation: Barlovento - 6/1 with bet365
1:05pm Aintree - The Last Cloud (Each-Way)
The current 5/1 favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at next year’s Cheltenham Festival, Dan Skelton’s Mydaddypaddy is clearly a very exciting prospect, the Walk In The Park gelding ultra-impressive in winning on both of his starts over hurdles, the most recent when beating his two rivals at Haydock earlier in the month.
In what looks to be a very strong Grade 1 novices’ hurdle, however, I think Harry Skelton’s mount represents little in the way of value at odds of around 4/7 against a field of smart rivals, headed by Harry Fry’s Champion Bumper 6th Idaho Sun, easy winner of minor contests at Fontwell and Bangor since switched to hurdling.
One horse who went into my notebook after finishing fourth in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham’s October meeting was the Patrick Neville-trained THE LAST CLOUD (Each-Way), who did well to finish a close fourth after being hampered when staying-on close home. At a massive price, I think it could be worth taking a chance on Brian Hughes’ mount (each-way) from a stable never to be underestimated when stepping a horse up in grade.
Recommendation: The Last Cloud (Each-Way) - 50/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:20pm Leopardstown - Salvator Mundi
A cracking Grade 1 novices’ chase in which Gordon Elliott’s Romeo Coolio is sure to be all the rage following his two impressive victories over fences at Down Royal and Fairyhouse. The latter success came in the Drinmore Novice Chase, possibly not the strongest renewal of that 2m 4 grade 1 contest. While Jack Kennedy’s mount deserves to head the market at a short price, I think he faces a serious rival in the number one Closutton contender SALVATOR MUNDI.
Only second to stablemate Kappa Jy Pyke on his chasing debut at Thurles last month, Paul Townsend's mount is entitled to come on plenty for that first run in 212 days. It was hard to forget the ease with which Salvator Mundi surged clear of Romeo Coolio in Aintree’s Grade 1 TrustATtrader Novices’ Hurdle at the Grand National meeting.
Currently a 33/1 chance with bet365 for next year’s Arkle, as opposed to the 7/2 available about Romeo Coolio, odds which could seem very generous following the outcome of this informative novices’ chase.
Recommendation: Salvator Mundi - 4/1 with bet365
2:30pm Kempton - Fact To File
Kempton Park’s future may be in some doubt at the moment, but the course has been rewarded with one of the best renewals of their Boxing Day Grade 1 showpiece, the 3m contest attracting a fabulous field of eight runners, good news for each-way bettors. While the likes of Djelo and last year’s 1-2 Banbridge and Il Est Francais will have their supporters at double-figure prices, I think the winner will come from one of the four market leaders in Gaelic Warrior, FACT TO FILE, Jango Baie and The Jukebox Man.
Last year’s Arkle winner Jango Baie couldn’t have been more impressive when stepping up to 2m 5f for last month’s Grade 2 Ladbrokes 1965 Chase at Ascot, Nicky Henderson’s charge seeing off his four talented rivals with the minimum of fuss. Ben Pauling’s Albert Bartlett runner-up The Jukebox Man has really come into his own since going chasing and is impossible to fault on his three wins to date over the bigger obstacles.
With the possibility of Gaelic Warrior and Il Est Francais taking each other on up front, the result of this fascinating contest could boil down to which horse has the necessary reserves at the end of what looks sure to be a true-run affair, the vote going to the J P McManus-owned Fact To File and jockey Mark Walsh.
I thought the eight-year-old’s victory in last season’s Ryanair Chase was one of the highlights of the festival (Djelo, Master Chewy and Il Est Francais beaten 22 lengths and more). Runner-up to stablemate Galopin Des Champs in last year’s Savills Chase, Fact To File can lay down his Gold Cup claims by reversing last month’s John Durkan form with Gaelic Warrior in what promises to be a memorable race.
Recommendation: Fact To File - 3/1 with bet365
3:13pm Wincanton - Absolutely Doyen (Nap)
Most of those at the top end of the handicap for this Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier have been struggling to recapture their form of late, unlike the three horses at the foot of the weights, ABSOLUTELY DOYEN (Nap), El Capitaine and Moonset, who between them have won six of their last seven starts over hurdles. The last two are both racing from 4lb out of the handicap however, which hands a big advantage to Absolutely Doyen, one of three runners for trainer Paul Nicholls and with the valuable 7lb claim of rider Freddie Keighley.
After joining the Ditcheat stable from that of Fergal O’Brien in October, the son of Doyen had little trouble in winning minor contests at Stratford and Sedgefield before making his handicap debut at Ascot last month. After taking it up 2 out at the Berkshire racecourse, Absolutely Doyen only had to be pushed out in the closing stages to land the hat-trick.
An 8lb higher mark will make things tougher for the five-year-old, although I will be surprised if the gelding does not prove to be much better than his current handicap mark of 123.
Recommendation: Absolutely Doyen (Nap) - 7/4 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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