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With 15 winning days out of the last 17, another very good week with a profit of +£18.37, making it the third successful week in a row, the highlights being the victories of Sea Thrift (11/1 on Thursday) and Pep Talking (16/1 with a 5p R4 on Saturday).
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 2 November: +£18.37
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 7 November
Hopefully, conditions for Exeter's Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup will be on the soft side of good when the race gets underway at 2:25pm, the Devon racecourse desperately in need of the rain forecast for the area during the next few days.
2:25pm Exeter - Thistle Ask (Each-Way) (Nap)
Paul Nicholls’ highly-regarded Kalif Du Berlais heads a field of six for this Grade 2 handicap chase. The Aintree Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase winner is an exciting prospect for the months ahead but is unlikely to be spot-on for today’s race. Harry Cobden’s mount may still be capable of outclassing his rivals however, the main danger according to the latest betting being the Joe Tizzard-trained JPR One with a rating of 153.
At the 10/1 available with Betfred and Paddy Power on Wednesday afternoon, I would rather back the ex-James Ewart inmate THISTLE ASK (Each-Way) (Nap), now in the care of Dan Skelton. Due to go up to a mark of 131 following easy wins at Kelso and Wetherby last month, the eight-year-old gelding, despite being 5lb wrong in the weights, will never have a better chance of winning a race of this nature. The first prize of £59,440 would come in very handy for his title-chasing stable.
Recommendation: Thistle Ask (Each-Way) (Nap) - 10/1 with Paddy Power (2 places)
3:20pm Hexham - Hudson De Grugy (Each-Way)
Ann Hamilton’s Hello Judge did us a favour when recording his 5th victory at Carlisle last month, a course where the nine-year-old is more at home, whereas Danny McMenamin’s mount has been beaten on both visits to the Northumberland racecourse. Rattling Road has made a good start to his career over fences, winning 2 of his 5 starts over the bigger obstacles, including on this course last December.
The Russell/ Scudamore-trained eight-year-old looks sure to win his fair share of races this season. But on his first start for the in-form Sam England, the ex-Gary & Josh Moore inmate HUDSON DE GRUGY (Each-Way) makes plenty of appeal on his debut for the Leeds dual-purpose trainer.
Rated 13lb lower over fences compared to a hurdles mark of 133, the gelding’s two victories over fences came over distances in the region of today’s trip of 2m 4f, the most recent when beating favourite Getaway Drumlee in a Fontwell Chase Series Qualifier last December.
Stepped-up significantly in trip (3m 2f and 3m 5f) for his final two starts of last season, Jonathan England’s mount looks overpriced at an opening show of 9/1 with bet365 and Coral now that the son of Falco drops back down to two and a half miles.
Recommendation: Hudson De Grugy (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:35pm Exeter - Vision De Maine (Each-Way)
The ex Jane Williams-trained Jupiter Allen has won two of his three starts on the course, one over hurdles and one over fences. On his first start for trainer Chester Williams, the six-year-old is capable of going close with jockey Harry Cobden booked for the first time.
Cases can be made for last month’s Kempton winner Village Master and Joe Tizzard’s Gyenyame, a winner here 12 months ago off a 1lb higher mark. However, I like the chances of the Pond House contender, bottom weight VISION DE MAINE (Each-Way).
First time out could be the best time to catch David Pipe’s charge, who won his first two starts over fences around this time last year before his form tailed-off a little on his next four outings. Jack Tudor's mount still looks reasonably treated off a mark of 109 and gets the vote. The other one to consider is Theonewedreamed on her second start for the Skelton’s since leaving the stable of Gavin Cromwell in Ireland.
Recommendation: Vision De Maine (Each-Way) - 17/2 with William Hill (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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