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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 4 December
We head to the jumps cards at Wincanton and Market Rasen for Thursday's horse racing tips with ground on the soft side of good expected at both meetings.
1:50pm Market Rasen - Harry Bright
The Dan Skelton stable could have a decent novice on their hands with the J P McManus-owned Harry Lowes, one of 5 runners in an informative contest half an hour earlier. However the Walk In The Park gelding fares against Tom Lacey’s promising Montemares, I expect the Skeltons to take this Class 5 handicap hurdle with joint top weight HARRY BRIGHT.
The Milan gelding showed little in three novices hurdles, all at big prices, before making his handicap debut over a more suitable trip of 2m 4f at Wincanton last month when partnered by amateur jockey Dominic Lewis. The five-year-old made headway from the rear to hold every chance 2 out only to weaken into 5th place on the run-in.
This modest contest looks a good opportunity for Harry Bright to open his account, especially with Harry Skelton taking over in the saddle for the first time and having dropped 2lb to a mark of 98. Barry Brennan’s Seahouses was a comfortable winner over today’s course and distance last month but now races off a career-high mark of 94 and lacks the greater scope of the selection.
Recommendation: Harry Bright - 3/1 with bet365
3:10pm Wincanton - I’m Your Buckaroo (Each-Way)
Max Comely’s Bebside Banter did us a favour when easily winning a 2m 7f handicap chase at Worcester in October before weakening out of contention after making most of the running over hurdles at Kempton the following month. While the excellent Gavin Sheehan takes over in the saddle from Freddie Mitchell, I’m not convinced the eight-year-old is crying out for this stamina test of just short of 3m 3f.
Sam Thomas’ Special John was well supported to win on his chasing debut at Exeter last month, and while the unexposed six-year-old justified his short odds, it was only by a short head, Dylan Johnston’s mount now raised 7lb to a mark of 100. While there should be more to come from the Soldier Of Fortune gelding, I think the Gary & Josh Moore-trained I’M YOUR BUCKAROO (Each-Way) is sure to be suited by this stamina test on the gelding’s third start over fences.
A winner over hurdles at Plumpton when stepping-up to 3m 1f back in May before having a wind op, Caoilin Quinn’s mount wasn’t beaten far on his first two runs over fences, first of all when finishing third at Fontwell in October before going one place better in the runner-up spot at Lingfield last month. Now trying this extreme trip for the first time, the son of Buck’s Boum gets the each-way vote in this staying handicap chase.
Recommendation: I’m Your Buckaroo (Each-Way) - 5/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:40pm Wincanton - Surrey Lord (Nap)
Paul Nicholls’ top weight Meatloaf will be better for his run when fourth at Newbury last month, the six-year-old’s first outing for over 500 days. Syd Hosie’s Dirty Den has run two excellent races in competitive handicaps for the stable since leaving that of Anthony Charlon a couple of months ago. However, I think the outcome of the Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier may concern the Hobbs/White-trained Doctors Hill and bottom weight SURREY LORD (Nap), preference being for the latter.
Doctors Hill makes his handicap debut following a comfortable victory over a well-regarded novice of Harry Derham’s in Lasko Des Obeaux at Chepstow last month. An opening mark of 116 looks fair enough about Sean Houlihan’s mount, although the five-year-old faces a stiff task in trying to concede 10lb to Toby Lawes’ Surrey Lord.
The Getaway gelding has made rapid improvement since given an opening handicap mark of 100, first of all when hacking-up at Ffos Las towards the back end of October (subsequent dual winner Reinado well held in second when falling at the last) before following up in a conditional jockeys’ handicap at Kempton 10 days ago.
Running off the same mark 106 today, Kevin Brogan’s mount is due to go up 6lb in the future and can take advantage of the weight he receives from his 9 rivals to complete a hat-trick of wins. Well entered up over the last week or so, connections should be rewarded with another victory before the handicapper has his say.
Recommendation: Surrey Lord (Nap) - 9/4 with CopyBet
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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