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Despite another excellent week with a profit of +£17.13 to a £1 level stake, we can count ourselves unfortunate due to the narrow defeats of Silver Lake (6/1) and Baldomero (10/1) on Friday and Sea Lantern’s mugging in Saturday’s Cesarewitch (advised at 6/1), all beaten a matter of inches.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 11 October: +£17.13
P/L for the year to date: +£213.42
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£713.98
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 12 October
Ground on the soft side of good is expected for the three meetings taking place on Monday afternoon, Yarmouth and Musselburgh on the Flat and Worcester over Jumps.
2:07pm Worcester - Sonyourastar (Nap)
This looks a pretty modest Class 5 handicap chase and a good opportunity for the Olly Murphy-trained SONYOURASTAR (Nap) to make a winning debut over fences off an opening mark of 102. The Kingston Hill gelding has plenty of experience in the Irish point-to-pointing field, including a narrow defeat around this time last year.
After joining Murphy back in March, Sean Bowen’s mount had five runs over the smaller obstacles, culminating in a promising third in a Uttoxeter handicap during the summer, after which the six-year-old had wind surgery before reappearing in a hurdle race over today’s course and distance last month.
Sent off the 3/1 market leader for that 10-runner contest, Sonyourastar went down by a nose to 4/1 chance Jullou De Grassay after being four lengths down jumping the last. Sporting headgear for the first time, the selection has plenty of potential to make the grade as a chaser, unlike the majority of his exposed rivals.
Fresh from their Welsh Champion Hurdle victory of last Friday, the Jonjo & A J O’Neill-stable’s Saint Arion is the other one to consider, the five-year-old far from disgraced when runner-up on his chasing debut at Warwick last month.
Recommendation: Sonyourastar (Nap) - 11/4 with bet365
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
4:07pm Worcester - Authoceltic
Bottom weight Jasmin De Cotte won a 2m 4f handicap chase at Uttoxeter off today’s mark of 105 back in March when trained by Dan Skelton; the seven-year-old is worth noting for any market support on his first start for Tom Symonds.
Despite having won three of his four starts over fences, two coming over trips of 2m and 2m 1f, Dan Skelton’s Kykorock seemed to appreciate the step-up to 3m when winning at Uttoxeter on his most recent start. Back down to today’s extended 2m, Harry Skelton’s mount may prove vulnerable off joint top weight. Provided he is fit enough on his first start since finishing a head second in a handicap at Ascot towards the end of March, I think Jane Williams’ promising chaser AUTHOCELTIC could prove the one to beat.
The son of Authorized opened his account over fences at the second attempt (beaten half a length in the first) when quickening away from his 7 rivals in a Class 4 novices’ handicap at Wincanton last November. A short priced favourite to follow-up at Ludlow just before Christmas, Authoceltic ruined his chance with a bad mistake at the second last fence.
Ciaran Gething’s mount would have won in another stride on his most recent start at Ascot. The selection starts the new campaign on a fair mark of 116, and looks to have his ideal conditions for today’s first outing of the season.
Recommendation: Authoceltic - 3/1 with bet365
4:24pm Yarmouth - Startled Lady (Each-Way)
Dylan Cunha’s consistent Holy Roman Emperor gelding Methgal has yet to finish out of the first two in six starts for connections since leaving the stable of John Joseph Murphy during the summer. Marco Ghiani’s mount has been beaten twice at Yarmouth this season off lower marks and is possibly in the grip of the handicapper at the moment off a career-high mark of 70.
While cases can be made for several of the 13 contenders for this 6f sprint handicap, the William Knight-trained STARTLED LADY (Each-Way) is fancied to repeat her course and distance victory of three months ago, the Zoustar filly last seen finishing a close third here last month behind fellow rival Raffles Angel.
Tom Marquand’s mount meets that winner on 1lb better terms, and at two years younger is open to the greater improvement of the pair. While the Knight stable haven’t had a winner in over a month, they have gone close on many occasions, including Sanbona Warrior’s second placing in York’s British EBF £100,000 Final on Friday. The stable deserves a change of fortune.
Recommendation: Startled Lady (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on X for more racing insight.
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