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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 25 July
The ITV Racing cameras will be covering seven races on Saturday afternoon, four from Ascot and three from York, the feature race being the Group 1 King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 3:35pm.
1:30pm York - Managing Director (Each-Way)
This Sky Bet ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) makes only limited appeal from a betting perspective, with the tentative vote going to the Geoff Oldroyd-trained MANAGING DIRECTOR (Each-Way).
Previously with Brian Smart as a two-year-old and the winner of a Thirsk nursery, the Cotai Glory gelding, following a break of 21 months, made a promising start for connections when finishing a close 5th at Beverley earlier this month. A mark of 73 looks more than reasonable for Danny McMenamin’s mount, who has fair claims of taking this novelty contest
Recommendation: Managing Director (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (5 places)
1:45pm Ascot - Dark Issue
Royal Ascot juvenile form is put on the line courtesy of this Group 3 Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes, which features horses placed or just outside the placings in the Windsor Castle Stakes, Queen Mary Stakes and Albany Stakes. Of the three, the second and third positions achieved by Moonrise and Harlequin Sky in the Windsor Castle are possibly the weakest.
While there was nothing wrong with Alta Regina’s 6th place finish for owner Wathnan Racing in the Queen Mary, the narrow vote goes to the Richard Hannon-trained filly DARK ISSUE. An impressive winner on her debut at Goodwood in May, the daughter of Dark Angel lost nothing in defeat behind winner Libertango and favourite Sun Goddess when finishing fourth of 25 in the Albany, some three lengths ahead of the 5th horse home Hidden Gift.
Recommendation: Dark Issue - 3/1 with Paddy Power
2:00pm York - Addison Grey (Each-Way)
As you would expect for this £100k Sky Bet Dash (Heritage Handicap), a seriously competitive turnout of 22 runners, most of which can be given a chance, while there is also any possible draw advantage to take into the equation.
One horse who deserves to land a decent pot before too long is Clive Cox’s ADDISON GREY, who has been running well all season off marks in the low 90’s, in particular when beating all bar the classy Double Rush at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting.
Rossa Ryan’s mount didn’t enjoy the best of runs when beaten a length at Salisbury on his most recent start and another big run is expected from the grey, who is due to come out of stall 17.
Recommendation: Addison Grey (Each-Way) - 15/2 with Paddy Power (5 places)
2:20pm Ascot - Touleen
After failing to get a clear run when runner-up to Ballydoyle’s Precise in Royal Ascot’s Coronation Stakes, the Owen Burrows-trained Touleen was considered an unlucky loser in the eyes of many observers. My own impression was that the winner had plenty in hand at the finish and would have pulled-out more if challenged.
That was still an excellent effort from the Shadwell filly however, who had previously finished a creditable sixth in Newmarket’s Betfred 1000 Guineas from a poor draw. On current ratings, William Buick’s mount has at least 7lb in hand over any of her 7 rivals in a race hers for the taking, granted a clearer passage on this occasion.
At a big price, I wouldn’t put anyone off having an each-way bet on Charlie Johnston’s Arisaig to make the frame.
Recommendation: Touleen - 5/6 with bet365
2:35pm York - Item (Nap)
Having backed Andrew Balding’s Juddmonte colt ITEM (Nap) for the Betfred Derby last month, I’m inclined to put a line through that ninth place finish when beaten a little over 26 lengths. Clearly not at home on the soft ground at Epsom, the son of Frankel wasn’t given a hard time of it when his chance had gone, and is better judged on his previous victory in the Dante Stakes over today’s course and distance with subsequent Derby winner Christmas Day over four lengths back in third spot.
Rob Hornby’s mount has had plenty of time to recover from those exertions on the Epsom Downs, and can give a boost to the classic generation with a victory over his four older rivals in this Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes before a possible tilt at races like the Irish and English Champion Stakes.
Recommendation: Item (Nap) - 2/1 with Betfred
2:55pm Ascot - Akkadian Thunder (Each-Way)
Is William Haggas’s unbeaten Hello Youmzain colt Extremely Zain a potential Group horse running in a handicap off a mark of 101? That question is likely to be answered courtesy of the outcome of this £150k Moet & Chandon International (Heritage Handicap). Making his handicap debut at York last month, the unexposed three-year-old had little trouble in seeing off his 18 rivals with a rating of 93, despite having a far from clear passage.
This is expected to be a lot tougher for Tom Marquand’s mount however, and at current odds of no bigger than 2/1 , is worth taking on with David O’Meara’s AKKADIAN THUNDER (Each-Way). Three and a half lengths behind in 5th place at York, the Night Of Thunder gelding enjoys a pull of 11lb with the market leader.
Fifth again at Doncaster last week when denied a clear run repeatedly inside the last couple of furlongs, Ascot specialist jockey Jamie Spencer will be in the saddle for the first time, and if successful, the six-year-old would certainly not be winning out of turn.
Recommendation: Akkadian Thunder (Each-Way) - 11/1 with William Hill (5 places)
3:35pm Ascot - Kalpana (Each-Way)
Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O’Brien has been criticised in some quarters recently, unfairly in my humble opinion, for using team tactics in many of the top races, Royal Ascot’s St James’s Palace Stakes being one example. The fact that the record-breaking handler is four-handed in Ascot’s summer Group 1 highlight will no doubt not be to everyone’s taste, although it is almost certain to guarantee a true-run race for the £2 million contest.
Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini would appear to be the stable’s number one contender, although a big run from last season’s triple Oaks winner Minnie Hauk would come as no great surprise, as the daughter of Frankel will be better suited by today’s trip of 1m 4f.
Japanese raider Masquerade Ball is very much an unknown quantity in this country, but the four-year-old was just touched off by favourite Calandagan in the Grade 1 Japan Cup at Tokyo towards the end of last year. After being beaten 42 lengths in Epsom’s Coronation Cup last month due to the soft conditions, the French challenger returned to form with a narrow victory in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud three weeks ago.
I thought Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge made hard work of winning that Group 1 contest however. At current prices, I think last year’s winner is worth taking on with the length runner-up on that occasion, Andrew Balding’s consistent mare Kalpana (each-way).
The daughter of Study Of Man has an excellent record on the course, including a comfortable win over the Arc-bound Estrange in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares in October. While Colin Keane’s mount has a few pounds to find with one or two of her rivals, she is almost certain to run her race, the only time the Juddmonte mare has failed to make the frame in 16 races was when finishing a creditable 7th in last year’s Arc.
Recommendation: Kalpana (Each-Way) - 9/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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