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A decent Ebor week with a profit of +£9.53 to a £1 level stake, although things could have been so much better, as luck was certainly not on our side with a total of 8 seconds over the six days.
After trading at 1.01 in running, Almaqam was caught on the post in the International, 14/1 chance French Duke failed by the minimum margin to get up in Friday’s feature handicap, and Hopewell Rock (tipped at 12/1) just lost out in the Ebor after jockey Callum Rodriguez dropped his whip inside the final furlong. A fabulous four days of action on the Knavesmire, but frustrating all the same.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 23 August: +£9.53
P/L for the year to date: +£156.18
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£656.84
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 29 August
The ITV Racing cameras will cover nine races on Saturday afternoon, five from Goodwood and four from Sandown Park. The feature race at the West Sussex racecourse is the Group 2 Virgin Bet Celebration Mile at 3:10pm.
1:25pm Goodwood - Rhythm Of My Heart (Each-Way)
Charlie Johnston’s Lily Pink made a pleasing debut when beaten a neck by Andrew Balding’s Zarakova in a Newmarket maiden three weeks ago. That was just a four-horse affair however, and at odds of no bigger than 7/4 I would rather back the David Menuisier-trained RHYTHM OF MY HEART (Each-Way) at the 7/1 currently on offer with Sky Bet (4 places).
Hector Crouch’s mount was sent off favourite for a 12-runner Kempton maiden on her debut earlier in the month, the daughter of Lope Y Fernandez beating all bar James Fanshawe’s Tikka. The winner looked pretty useful on her debut and I expect Rhythm Of My Heart to at least make the frame once again.
Recommendation: Rhythm Of My Heart (Each-Way) - 7/1 with Sky Bet (4 places)
1:40pm Sandown - Tall Trees (Each-Way)
Any market move for Godolphin’s debutante Flower Show would be significant, the well-bred daughter of Dubawi having her first start on a course trainer Charlie Appleby likes to introduce a potentially useful juvenile. At the 9/2 currently available with bet365, I would rather back the more experienced TALL TREES (Each-Way) with the Brian Meehan stable starting to hit a bit of form.
Eighth of 26 behind Libertango in the Albany at Royal Ascot, looking as if she would appreciate another furlong, the Showcasing filly has done little wrong on her two subsequent outings, the most recent when finishing an unlucky 3rd in the Listed Star Stakes over today’s course and distance last month.
Recommendation: Tall Trees (Each-Way) - 9/2 with bet365 (3 places)
2:00pm Goodwood - Forty Years On (Nap)
Four from four on turf, George Scott’s lightly-raced daughter of Mayson, FORTY YEARS ON (Nap), has gone up a stone in the weights since winning on her handicap debut at Ascot last September, after which the four-year-old failed by a head to hold off the rallying Maybe Not on Southwell’s all-weather surface 16 days later on her final start of 2025.
Hector Crouch's mount could not have been more impressive on her reappearance in a 7f handicap at Newbury in June when beating her 14 rivals by an eased-down three lengths. This £100k handicap looks an ideal next step for this talented filly, who has the scope to prove better than her current rating of 96.
Any easing in the ground will suit Forty Years On, who may have most to fear from David O’Meara’s Darkness, last seen finishing a close 6th in the Coral Golden Mile at the Glorious meeting.
Recommendation: Forty Years On (Nap) - 11/4 with Paddy Power
2:15pm Sandown - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having tipped the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief at a big price in the ante-post market for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile last month, the well-backed 11/2 chance once again lost the race at the start, the Sioux Nation gelding’s habit of missing the break becoming more and more frustrating for his supporters.
While the five-year-old has been campaigned mainly over 7f or 1m, Sean Levey’s mount is worth a try over today’s longer trip. Sandown’s extra two furlongs will give TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) more time to recover from another potential slow start, as the selection is more than capable of going close in this Class 2 contest off a mark of 92.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:35pm Goodwood - High Degree
A beaten favourite on all six starts between last September and when beating all bar George Scott’s Al Aali at Newmarket last month, the William Haggas-trained HIGH DEGREE finally justified the market’s confidence when taking a Pontefract handicap as the 6/4 favourite 13 days ago.
I don’t think there is anything wrong with the attitude of the Too Darn Hot gelding, who just kept running into one or two rivals too good. Now that Cieren Fallon’s mount has regained the winning thread, and on his first try over a trip which I think will suit, the four-year-old is fancied to get the better of main rivals Too Soon and Tony Montana.
Recommendation: High Degree - 5/2 with Coral
2:50pm Sandown - Secret Of Life
An excellent turnout for this Group 3 Atlanta Stakes for fillies and mares, the 10 runners headed by Jane Chapple-Hyem’s Kon Tiki, who will have to concede between 3lb and 9lb to her rivals. While Ralph Beckett’s SECRET OF LIFE has a few pounds to find with several of her rivals based on current ratings, the daughter of Pinatubo is unbeaten on all three starts to date, the latest over today’s course and distance when making all of the running in last month’s Listed Coral Distaff.
Rossa Ryan’s mount has yet to be extended, and despite this significant step-up in class, the three-year-old looks an exciting prospect.
Recommendation: Secret Of Life - 7/2 with BetVictor
3:10pm Goodwood - Naqeeb (Each-Way)
Eve Johnson Hoghton’s Zavateri makes a quick reappearance after finishing a respectable 5th in last weekend’s Group 1 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes, the three-year-old having previously filled the same position behind Bow Echo and Gstaad in Goodwood’s Sussex Stakes.
While Charlie Bishop’s mount deserves his place at the head of the betting, I think the Julie Camacho-trained NAQEEB (Each-Way) represents decent each-way value at the 11/1 available with Paddy Power. The six-year-old Nathaniel gelding seems to reserve his best for the West Sussex track with form figures reading 2-1-2.
3lb Better off with fellow rival Boiling Point (no bigger than 9/2) for the short-head which separated the pair at the May meeting, Ryan Sexton’s mount was far from disgraced behind Zeus Olympios in Ascot’s Group 2 Summer Mile last month and would be much shorter if coming from a more fashionable yard.
Recommendation: Naqeeb (Each-Way) - 11/1 with Paddy Power (3 places)
3:30pm Sandown - Sonic Angel
Hugo Palmer’s Mia Fantasia did us a favour when running away with a nursery at last week’s Ebor Festival at York. Whether the Make Believe colt is capable of holding his own at this Group 3 level remains to be seen, but a big run from the mount of Marco Ghiani would come as no surprise.
The Muir/Grassick-trained Breacher and Godolphin’s Rock Montreal both made impressive winning debuts and could be anything. However, preference is for SONIC ANGEL from the in-form stable of Simon & Ed Crisford, fresh from their success with the exciting Senorita Bonita in last weekend’s Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville.
The grey son of Dark Angel, after making a winning debut on Newcastle’s all-weather surface last month, followed-up with a wide-margin victory at Kempton Park 10 days ago. I expect champion jockey Oisin Murphy to make full use of his draw in stall one on a horse with plenty of pace and proven over today’s trip of 7f.
Recommendation: Sonic Angel - 7/2 with Coral
3:45pm Goodwood - Tropical Sands
The market is likely to prove the best guide to the outcome of this 1m 2f maiden race, as newcomers Marquetry from the Andrew Balding stable and the George Boughey-trained Queen Of Scotland have the potential to be more than decent. Of those with experience, the royal runner TROPICAL SANDS may be the best.
This will be the fourth outing for the daughter of Too Darn Hot, who was just held by previous winner Ancestor over today’s trip at Haydock Park earlier in the month. Clifford Lee’s mount gets the tentative vote in a race which makes only limited appeal from a betting perspective.
Recommendation: Tropical Sands - 5/2 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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