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Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 16 July
Plenty of horse racing action on a busy Thursday with meetings at Hamilton, Chepstow and Thirsk in the afternoon and Epsom and Worcester (jumps) in the evening.
The cards at Leopardstown and Killarney (jumps) in Ireland complete the action for the day.
3:25pm Hamilton - I’ll Be Back
A field of only 6 for this £30k Class 2 handicap but an interesting contest all the same. Hamad Al Jehani’s English Oak finished a creditable second in this race 12 months ago when attempting to concede 8lb to Roger Varian’s Sallaal, a recent Listed winner at Sandown and now rated 119.
With talented 5lb claimer Jack Nicholls booked for the ride, the Wathnan Racing owned six-year-old is capable of going close. The Jim Goldie-trained Salam Dubawi makes a quick reappearance after finishing a career-best 5th (demoted from 3rd) in Saturday’s 22-runner John Smith’s Cup at York.
Off a mark of 87, Paul Mulrennan’s mount, a winner here in May, will have his supporters. However, the vote goes to Karl Burke’s unbeaten Lope de Vega colt I'LL BE BACK, the mount of in-form jockey Sam James. This will be just the third career start for the three-year-old, winner of a Doncaster maiden back in November on his only run at two.
While the form of that race has taken a few subsequent knocks, the same could hardly be said about I’ll Be Back’s victory at Leicester in April. The second, third and fourth horses home in that 7f novices contest, King’s Cavalry, Erudition and Beagle Bay are now running off respective marks of 85, 84 and 94. An opening rating of 92 for the selection looks more than fair for a horse with a huge amount of potential.
Recommendation: I’ll Be Back - 10/11 with Ladbrokes
4:00pm Hamilton - Jannas Journey
David O’Meara’s joint top weight Kaleido has gone close on his last two starts and looks sure to be winning again before too long, the ex John & Thady Gosden-trained son of Make Believe successful at Yarmouth around this time last year. However, I think the two horses to concentrate on are Jim Goldie’s JANNAS JOURNEY and Inspired from the Karl Burke stable, preference being for the former.
The two horses finished first and second respectively in a race for female jockeys at Carlisle earlier in the month, the half length runner-up now 1lb better off with the mount of 5lb claimer Lauren Young. Strictly speaking, there should be nothing between the two once again on today’s revised terms.
The five-year-old daughter of Sioux Nation seems to come alive at this time of the year however, the mare reeling off a five-timer last summer, starting over 6f on this course in the middle of July off a mark of 47 and ending at Ayr four weeks later over a trip of 7f with a rating of 67. While Jannas Journey struggled to be competitive off marks in the mid 80’s earlier in the year, I expect a big run from the selection off today’s mark of 79.
Recommendation: Jannas Journey - 9/4 with bet365
6:27pm Worcester - Huckleberry Sting (Nap)
Jonjo & A J O’Neill’s Knightsbridge is on a hat-trick following a couple of recent wins on this course, the first over 3m and the second over 2m 4f. Now running off a mark 12lb higher than when beating fellow rival Carpe Diem (12lb better off for just under 3 lengths) in the first of those races, the six-year-old may struggle to confirm that form with David Bridgewater’s runner.
However, I think both of those runners will struggle to stop Tom Ellis’s HUCKLEBERRY STING from defying a 7lb penalty for the gelding’s comfortable victory at Market Rasen 11 days ago. An easy winner on his chasing debut at Bangor in April, the son of Scorpion failed to produce his best in a couple of races over Southwell’s extended 3m in between those two successes.
1lb Well-in compared to a future mark of 92, Jack Andrews’ mount should find today’s 2m 7f trip ideal, and this smooth travelling seven-year-old is fancied to take this Arc Summer Chase Series Qualifier.
Recommendation: Huckleberry Sting (Nap) - 11/4 with bet365
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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