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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 1 December
Soft ground is expected for Monday’s jumps cards at Plumpton and Ayr. Kempton Park and Wolverhampton stage the all-weather action, the main race at the former being a one mile Listed race at 3:27pm.
1:45pm Ayr - Heads Or Harps (Nap)
An Irish point-to-point winner back in 2022, the Russell/Scudamore-trained HEADS OR HARPS (Nap), following four runs over hurdles, was always destined for a career over the bigger obstacles. Making his chasing debut at Newcastle back in January, the Flemingsfirth gelding showed great potential in finishing a close fourth after being badly hampered by a faller 2 out.
Runner-up when conceding weight to the Parkinson/Smith-trained Konfusion (won Saturday's Rehearsal Chase by 15 lengths) at Wetherby on his next start, Derek Fox’s mount finally got off the mark at the third time of asking when cruising home by 13 lengths in a Go North One Man Series Qualifier over today’s course and distance in March.
A warm favourite to follow-up at Kelso on his reappearance 23 days ago, Heads Or Harps failed to give his running, beating only one of his rivals home after getting outpaced going to 2 out. That was clearly not the eight-year-old’s form on his first start for 245 days. I expect to see the previously progressive chaser get his career back on track with a victory in this modest Class 4 contest. Of the two Irish-trained contenders, preference is for Stuart Crawford’s chasing debutante Southey.
Recommendation: Heads Or Harps (Nap) - 3/1 with bet365
2:35pm Plumpton - Believitanducan
Jamie Snowden’s Jackstel and Grenadier Jed from the Robert Walford stable are both on four-timers and are respected in an effort to keep their winning runs going in this Class 3 handicap hurdle. The former will find this tougher than when beating a total of only 11 rivals when recording those victories at Warwick, Hereford and Plumpton however, while Harry Kimber’s mount is now 31lb higher than when opening his account at Taunton back in February and comes from a stable which has been struggling to find its form over the last few weeks.
At the age of 4, Alan King’s BELIEVETANDUCAN is the youngest of the 8 runners, the son of Make Believe winner of two of his four runs over hurdles, the first coming in a Juvenile hurdle at Newbury 12 months ago when beating the James Owen-trained Liam Swagger, who would go on to finish third in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival.
After failing to make an impact in a Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Prestbury Park on his next start, Tom Bellamy’s mount regained the winning thread with a comfortable victory at Stratford in March before reverting back to the flat for a narrow defeat on Kempton’s all-weather surface the following month.
After a break of 199 days, Believitanducan made his reappearance over the smaller obstacles at Newbury 25 days ago when finishing second to Charlie Longsdon’s Bowmore, rated as high as 137 when trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead earlier in the year. With that run under his belt, Believitanducan can continue his progression off what looks a decent mark of 121.
Recommendation: Believitanducan - 11/4 with bet365
3:27pm Kempton - Ebt’s Guard (Each-Way)
John & Thady Gosden’s recent course winner Chancellor and Holloway Boy, one of two Karl Burke runners and the highest rated of the 8 contenders for this Listed race, dominate the early betting for the feature race on Kempton’s nine-race card at odds of around 2/1.
While both horses boast obvious claims, I would rather back William Muir & Chris Grassick’s ultra-consistent EBT'S GUARD (Each-Way). The Cable Bay gelding has been in excellent form during the year, running with credit in many of the major 7f to 9f handicaps, before ending the season when finishing second in the Listed Ben Marshall Stakes at Nottingham towards the end of October.
While Lewis Edmunds’ mount has yet to win in four attempts on an artificial surface, the four-year-old is now rated 15lb higher than when last seen on the all-weather. Roger Varian’s Tyrrhenian Sea has a good record on the all-weather but is hard to fancy following a couple of poor runs on turf earlier in the year, best of the rest being Chancellor’s stablemate Torito, who will be having his first outing on the all-weather for owner Wathnan Racing.
Recommendation: Ebt’s Guard (Each-Way) - 6/1 with CopyBet (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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