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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 8 December
Conditions are guaranteed to be very testing at Fontwell on Monday, while good to soft ground is expected at the other jumps card taking place during the afternoon, the Scottish card at Musselburgh.
1:15pm Musselburgh - Newport
Several of the 10 contenders for this Class 5 novices’ limited handicap hurdle will be making their handicap debuts following modest efforts in novice hurdles, in which case the betting is likely to prove a significant guide to the outcome.
Gary Rutherford’s top weight Gonino has the best form on offer, Craig Nichol’s mount runner-up, albeit well beaten, to a decent horse in The Last Cloud at Perth earlier in the year. The Doyen gelding was tailed-off when pulled-up at Kelso on his reappearance last month however and is best watched at the moment.
The ex Eoin Doyle-trained NEWPORT left Ireland to join the Iain Jardine stable last month following 14 defeats over hurdles. The son of Starspangledbanner made a promising start for new connections when finishing third over 2m 4f at Sedgefield recently. With a top class sprinter as his sire, you would think that Newport would be more at home over today’s extended trip of 1m 7f, especially with the five-year-old’s best efforts to date coming over similar distances at Thurles and Wexford.
A modest contest, and probably the best chance yet for Danny McMenamin’s mount to open his account over hurdles at the 16th try.
Recommendation: Newport - 3/1 with Virgin Bet
2:25pm Fontwell - Shotgun Shirley (Nap)
All six contenders for this mares’ novices’ hurdle will be making their debuts over the smaller obstacles. Camilla Poulton's Izakaya has been kept busy on the flat during the year, winning races at Bath and Newbury on her last two starts.
Pollyanna’s Dream, Shutfrontdoor and Queen’s Theatre have shown form in Bumpers, in particular Anthony Honeyball’s charge who beat a horse of the Twiston Davies’ at Plumpton back in May, I’m A Believer, who is unbeaten in two subsequent starts.
The most promising filly in the field however is the Lucy Wadham-trained SHOTGUN SHIRLEY (Nap), who won a National Hunt Flat Race for conditionals and amateurs at Uttoxeter when beating a well-regarded horse of Jamie Snowden's before stepping up in class for a Listed race at Cheltenham’s November meeting.
While no match for Thomas Cooper’s Irish challenger Celestial Tune, Tom Cannon’s mount finished ahead of some promising fillies and mares on Prestbury Park’s soft ground. Providing the daughter of Poet’s Word takes to the smaller obstacles, she should prove hard to beat on her debut for a stable in decent form.
Recommendation: Shotgun Shirley (Nap) - 6/4 with Virgin Bet
3:15pm Musselburgh - Lillistar (Each-Way)
Hopefully, conditions at Musselburgh stay just on the soft side of good, as our each-way selection (bet365 go 3 places) LILLISTAR found the soft ground against her when the mare weakened to finish fourth at Sedgefield last month behind subsequent winner Devon Skies at the County Durham track.
Brian Hughes’ mount had previously won a two mile plus handicap on Wolverhampton all-weather surface in October before finishing a creditable third on good ground over hurdles at Wetherby later in the month. The grey daughter of Zoustar has yet to get her head in front over hurdles but that first success should not be far away.
Looking Splendid, Snow Dragon and Anamanda are all capable of going close, but in receipt of weight from her six rivals, Lillistar gets the vote in Musselburgh’s finale.
Recommendation: Lillistar (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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