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Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, September 19th
Soft ground looks guaranteed for Friday afternoon’s two flat cards, the second day of Ayr’s Western meeting and Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free sponsored fixture.
3:05pm Ayr - Luna A Inbhir Nis (Each-Way)
The winner under top weight of a Heritage Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting last month, Richard Hughes’ Star Of Mehmas is probably the one to beat in this extended 5f fillies’ Listed contest. The daughter of Mehmas has yet to race on ground with the word soft in it however, in which case I would rather back Katie Scott’s LUNA A INBHIR NIS (Each-Way).
Rated almost a stone behind Star Of Mehmas, the daughter of Rajasinghe finished two short heads behind Billy Loughnane’s mount at York and faces a difficult task of overturning that form on today’s terms. Jason Hart’s mount has made rapid strides since winning a handicap on this course back in April off a mark of 57 and this most genuine of fillies is fancied to outrun her odds.
David O’Meara’s Star Of Lady M, winner of this race 12 months ago, and Karl Burke’s Beautiful Diamond are the other two with obvious claims.
Recommendation: Luna A Inbhir Nis (Each-Way) - 12/1 with Unibet (4 places)
4:05pm Newbury - Remmooz (Nap)
With ratings of 108, Kevin Ryan’s Volterra and the John & Thady Gosden-trained Spy Chief set the standard for this 7f Listed Dubai Duty Free Cup. The former will appreciate today’s soft conditions, the son of Farhh, a comfortable winner of Ascot’s valuable BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) last October.
Shane Grey’s mount was last seen finishing down the field in a Group 3 at Deauville last month but is better than that and looks sure to go well with conditions to suit. Spy Chief has been set a couple of difficult tasks since his creditable second in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, first of all when dropped to 6f for Newmarket’s July Cup and then when sixth behind More Thunder in the Hungerford over today’s course and distance last month.
On Jersey Stakes form, William Buick’s mount has the beating of Owen Burrows’ REMMOOZ (Nap), just under four lengths back in fourth place. However, whereas Spy Chief has not progressed from his run at the royal meeting, Callum Rodriguez’ mount went on to win a valuable mile handicap at York before returning to the Knavesmire to finish a length third in the Clipper (Heritage Handicap) off a mark of 102. With the Burrows’ stable continuing in decent form, I think Remmooz is more than capable of making his mark at today’s Listed level.
Recommendation: Remmooz (Nap) - 15/8 with bet365
4:40pm Newbury - Greyval
Despite not having raced on the flat for three years, and for the first time since leaving the French stable of L Gadbin for that of trainer Fergal O’Brien, the six-year-old mare GREYVAL makes plenty of appeal in this mile and a half handicap racing off a mark of just 70.
A winner on heavy ground at Nantes back in 2022, the daughter of The Grey Gatsby has won 4 of her 15 starts over hurdles for O’Brien, the most recent when winning the Catesby Estates’ Mares’ Challenger Series Final at Cheltenham’s April meeting.
Allotted an opening handicap mark of 70 on the flat, connections will be eager to take advantage of what may turn out to be a very lenient rating. The booking of jockey Hollie Doyle for the mount is another positive and it would be no surprise to see the grey win a couple of races before returning to the smaller obstacles.
Sporting cheekpieces for the first time, William Haggas’s Orionis is the other one to consider.
Recommendation: Greyval - 9/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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