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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
With very little turf racing taking place, we ended the week with a small profit of +£1.61, although three of our four naps obliged at odds of 11/4, 6/1, and 3/1 (25p R4).
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 11 January: +£1.61
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: -£7.99
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£508.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 17 January
The ITV Racing coverage on Saturday afternoon features four races from Ascot and three from Haydock Park.
The main event at the Berkshire racecourse is the Grade 1 BetMGM Clarence House Chase at 3:30pm.
1:25pm Haydock - Hurricane Pat
This Grade 2 Supreme Trial is a fascinating clash between a couple of exciting novices in Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star and HURRICANE PAT from the Gary & Josh Moore stable. Both horses have been very impressive in winning their two starts over hurdles, the most eyecatching being the Seven Barrows contender’s runaway victory at Cheltenham last month.
After winning a maiden hurdle at Sandown back in November, Hurricane Pat moved into Listed company for his next start, again at Sandown, when contesting the 2m Claremont Novices’ Hurdle. Always travelling supremely well, Caoilin Quinn’s mount cruised clear of his four rivals, headed by the reopposing Soldier Reeves.
Despite having to concede 2lb to his main rival, slight preference is for Hurricane Pat in what promises to be an informative race.
Recommendation: Hurricane Pat - 2/1 with William Hill
1:40pm Ascot - La Conquiere
I don’t think this drop back in trip will suit Dan Skelton’s Nurse Susan, who looked to need every yard of the 2m 4f when staying-on to beat favourite Jubilee Alpha in a Listed mares’ hurdle at Sandown earlier in the month.
The dark horse of the race is Jamie Snowden’s LA CONQUIERE, runner-up in a Grade 2 Bumper at Aintree’s Grand National meeting and successful on both of her starts over hurdles to date. Particularly impressive when winning a Listed mares’ novices hurdle at Newbury on her most recent start at the end of November, Gavin Sheehan’s mount is an exciting prospect in this division going forward.
Recommendation: La Conquiere - 9/4 with bet365
2:00pm Haydock - Myretown
A disappointing field of only 7 for this £100k Peter March Chase (Premier Handicap), headed by Venetia Williams’ Haydock specialist Royale Pagaille. The 12-year-old faces a difficult task with 12st to carry against a couple of promising staying chasers in the Parkinson/Smith-trained Konfusion and MYRETOWN from the Russell/Scudamore stable.
The former, so impressive in winning Newcastle’s Rehearsal Chase and Wetherby’s Rowland Meyrick on his last two starts, now races off a mark 30lb higher than when starting the season with a rating of 115, in which case the 3lb Myretown receives from Callum Bewley’s mount may prove the deciding factor.
Runaway winner of the Ultima at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, Derek Fox’s mount was still bowling along at the head of affairs when falling at the 9th on his reappearance in Newbury’s valuable Coral Gold Cup. While Konfusion is greatly respected, I feel that Myretown possesses the greater potential of these two exciting staying prospects.
Recommendation: Myretown - 2/1 with Betfred
2:20pm Ascot - Vincenzo (Nap)
Winner of Ascot’s valuable Howden Handicap Chase just before Christmas, Dan Skelton’s Etalon takes on the second and fourth horses home on that occasion, Joe Tizzard’s Scarface and Bad from the Ben Pauling stable. On 4lb better terms and over this two furlongs longer trip, I expect Scarface to reverse that form with Harry Skelton’s mount.
However, after finishing second in a couple of Premier Handicaps at Cheltenham this season, the consistent eight-year-old VINCENZO (Nap) can finally land a big pot for connections with a victory in this £100k contest. The combination of trainer Sam Thomas and jockey Dylan Johnston have made a fine start to the season, and despite now running off a career-high mark of 140, Vincenzo looks sure to go close with a repeat of either of those efforts at Prestbury Park.
Recommendation: Vincenzo (Nap) - 5/2 with Paddy Power
2:35pm Haydock - Solar System (Each-Way)
Mel Rowley’s Kyntara returned to hurdles this season following an unsuccessful spell over fences. Not beaten far in competitive handicaps at Aintree and Cheltenham, Charlie Deutsch’s mount could go close, although the stable is very quiet at the moment.
I prefer the chances of the Hobbs/White runner SOLAR SYSTEM (Each-Way), a winner at this meeting 12 months ago off a mark 5lb lower. This three and a half furlongs longer trip shouldn't be a problem for the mount of 3lb claimer Callum Pritchard, the J P McManus-owned seven-year-old failing to enjoy the best of luck on his two subsequent starts following that Haydock victory, the gelding’s fourth win from 12 starts.
Recommendation: Solar System (Each-Way) - 11/2 with bet365
2:53pm Ascot - Moveit Like Minnie (Each-Way)
In a wide-open contest, a tentative vote goes to bottom weight MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE (Each-Way), the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies. The nine-year-old has run well on this course in the past, in particular when finishing fourth of 18 in a handicap just before Christmas in 2024.
The each-way selection needs to put a poor effort at Hereford last time behind him, but a repeat of his close third behind the classy Alexai here in November would put the Twiston-Davies runner in with every chance off a mark of 117.
Recommendation: Moveit Like Minnie (Each-Way) - 9/1 with bet365
3:30pm Ascot - Il Etait Temps
A field of only four for this Grade 1 contest but a fascinating race all the same. Dan Skelton's Thistle Ask, one of the most improved chasers in training, is likely to renew his successful front-running tactics, but will do well to repel last year's winner Jonbon and Irish raider IL ETAIT TEMPS, currently disputing favouritism with reigning champion Marine National in this season's Queen Mother Champion Chase.
A race to watch rather than as a betting medium, in which a reproduction of Il Etait Temp’s impressive Tingle Creek victory would make Willie Mullins’ charge very hard to beat.
Recommendation: Il Etait Temps - 8/13 with Paddy Power
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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