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Despite losing days on Friday and Sunday, an excellent week ended Sunday, 4 October, with a profit of +£24.63 to a £1 level stake.
The 20/1 success of Arqoob on Saturday was the most profitable of our five winning selections from ITV’s ten-race coverage.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 4 October: +£24.63
P/L for the year to date: +£196.29
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£696.85
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 8 October
With the ground already described as heavy, soft in places at Ayr in Scotland, and with the prospect of more rain to come, we will concentrate on the cards at Bath and Market Rasen for Thursday’s horse racing selections.
Good going is expected at both fixtures.
3:15pm Bath - Brilliant Star
An excellent turnout of 13 runners for this 1m 6f Listed race for fillies and mares. William Haggas’s Pierian is sure to appreciate today’s step-up to a mile and three quarters for the first time, the daughter of Palace Pier looking to need every yard of the extended 1m 3f trip when winning a handicap on this course last month.
While each-way claims can be made for Sir Mark Prescott’s Alla Stella and the Ralph Beckett pair of Lady Vivian and Venetia, the one to beat is the John & Thady Gosden-trained BRILLIANT STAR, providing the Cracksman filly is fit enough to do herself justice on her first start since finishing an excellent 4th in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot.
That four length defeat at the hands of Earth Shot and subsequent Irish Oaks winner Johanna Walsh sets a clear standard for this Listed race. With four winners from their last five runners, including Miss Scott in Longchamp’s Group 1 Prix de L’Opera on Sunday, Robert Havlin’s mount is expected to continue the stable’s excellent form.
Recommendation: Brilliant Star - 7/4 with bet365
3:41pm Market Rasen - Thickthorn Tom (Nap)
After landing a hat-trick of wins during the summer, it looked as if the handicapper had gained the measure of the Dan Skelton-trained THICKTHORN TOM (Nap) when the Ocovango gelding managed to find one too good on his most recent starts at Bangor and Newton Abbot.
I am more inclined to think that Harry Skelton’s mount was unlucky to come up against a couple of improving chasers in those two races, Mickey Bowen’s Tamarind Bay and chasing debutante Intosomethinggood from the in-form Nigel & Willie Twiston-Davies stable.
The latter in particular has the scope to make his mark over fences, and time may show that Thickthorn Tom’s length and a half defeat at the hands of that rival can be significantly marked up. Of the selection’s three rivals, the main danger may come in the shape of another Twiston-Davies horse having his first run over fences in top weight Shabalko d’Herm.
A point to point winner in Ireland two years ago prior to recording a couple of minor wins over hurdles, the six-year-old was well beaten in three subsequent starts, but is expected to make up into a better chaser than hurdler.
Recommendation: Thickthorn Tom (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
4:16pm Market Rasen - Mistral Blue (Each-Way)
Sam England’s Spot On Soph goes into this Class 5 mares’ handicap hurdle on a hat-trick following victories at Sedgefield and Southwell. While the 10-year-old’s seven wins to date, five over hurdles and two over fences, have come off marks ranging from 79 to 104, today’s career-high rating of 109 will be negated somewhat by the 7lb claim of rider Rebecca Hitchen.
The young conditional was on board for both of Spot On Soph’s recent wins and another big run from the top weight looks guaranteed. Spit Spot has disappointed since winning a couple of races at Perth around this time last year and is hard to fancy at the moment following several poor efforts for a stable yet to hit form.
Sam Drinkwater’s Parikarma won a handicap at Stratford last month by 11 lengths in the hands of regular partner Miss Imogen Mathias, although the 7lb claimer didn’t shine on the daughter of Canford Cliffs when last of three at Sedgefield nine days later, the young conditional dropping her whip when holding every chance inside the closing stages.
Back in 7th place in that Stratford race was the Fergal O’Brien-trained MISTRAL BLUE (Each-Way), who ran better than her finishing position would suggest, and on 7lb better terms with the winner, the mount of 5lb claimer Fern O’Brien would take plenty of beating if reproducing the form of her Uttoxeter victory of four months ago.
Racing off the same weight as Parikrama, Mistral Blue quickened away from that horse after taking up the running approaching the last. A repeat of that effort over today’s 2m 7f trip would make the each-way selection very hard to beat.
Recommendation: Mistral Blue (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on X for more racing insight.
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