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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
After a poor start, we ended the week with a 9/1 winner on Friday before successes at 3/1, 3/1, 2/1, and 7/1 (Nap) from Saturday’s ITV Racing tips, resulting in a profit over the six days of +£11.61.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, October 12th: +£11.61
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: -£3.17
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£482.82
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, October 17th
Unlike the meeting at Fakenham, the jumps card at Uttoxeter has attracted some decent fields, the exception being the opening beginners’ chase, for which only two horses have been declared.
The turf flat racing comes from Haydock Park and Redcar, the Merseyside racecourse due to race on ground described as good to soft, good in places but with a fairly dry forecast for the day.
3:05pm Haydock - Sword & Talis Evolvere (Each-Way)
William Haggas’s Eternal Force is likely to prove a warm order to take this one mile handicap, the progressive son of Dubawi now on a hat-trick following wins in a modest contest at Redcar (started at odds of 1/14) and on his handicap debut at Newbury last month. Tom Marquand’s mount has improved with each of his 6 starts for the stable, those two victories coming after Eternal Force was gelded during the summer.
Off a mark of 88 there is still plenty of room for the Newmarket contender to improve upon that rating. However, from a value perspective, my two against the favourite are the David O’Meara-trained SWORD and TALIS EVOLVERE (Each-Way) from the Richard Hannon stable, both trainers doubly represented.
The former ran a cracker off a 2lb lower mark when 3rd of 21 behind subsequent Stewards’ Cup winner Two Tribes in Ascot’s Moet & Chandon International (Heritage Handicap) back in July and did not enjoy the best of luck on his two most recent starts, both on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, when failing to get anything like a clear run, beaten just half a length on the second occasion.
Talis Evolvere is now on a losing run of 11, with four of his five victories to date coming on an artificial surface. Rated around the 100 mark when putting up creditable efforts in valuable handicaps at Newbury and Newmarket last year, the handicapper has dropped the Awtaad gelding to a mark of 85.
Following his close fourth in a London Mile Series Qualifier at Kempton earlier in the month, Joe Leavy’s mount has a good chance of returning to the winner’s enclosure for the first time since winning on Chelmsford’s all-weather surface just before Christmas.
Recommendations: Sword - 5/1 with William Hill & Talis Evolvere (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
3:32pm Uttoxeter - Lookaway
Wroughton trainer Neil King has made a very quiet start to the season (last win came 187 days ago), but together with jockey Jack Quinlan they have three good chances on today’s Uttoxeter card with Storming George (2.22pm), Lookaway (3.32pm) and Cuban Court (4.40pm). Of the trio, the one I am most keen on is LOOKAWAY in the day’s feature race, the Class 2 Bagley & Rylance 80th Celebration Handicap Hurdle.
The eight-year-old son of Ask, a Grade 2 Aintree Bumper winner, after winning a couple of novice hurdles on this course, stepped-up in class to take a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham around this time two years ago. Runner-up in Cheltenham’s valuable Greatwood Hurdle off a mark of 132, Lookaway continued to be highly tried over hurdles before making a successful chasing debut on this course 12 months ago.
Third behind L’Eau de Sud on his most recent start at last year’s November meeting at Prestbury Park, Lookaway returns to the smaller obstacles for his first run of the season on a course where he has yet to taste defeat in three outings. With an excellent record following a break, Lookaway makes plenty of appeal off a mark of 137. Top weight Minella Rescue, the Hobbs/White-trained Into The Park and bottom weight Masked Dance are the others to consider
Recommendation: Lookaway - 3/1 with Paddy Power
4:50pm Haydock - Kinswoman (Nap)
Narrowly denied when runner-up in a competitive handicap on York’s Knavesmire at the weekend when attempting to follow-up victories at Windsor and Chester in August, the William Haggas-trained KINSWOMAN (Nap) makes a quick reappearance just 7 days later off the same mark of 83 before the daughter of Mehmas’s revised rating of 85 comes into play.
Tom Marquand’s mount has yet to finish out of the first two in five races since making her handicap debut at Windsor back in May, the three-year-old filly unraced as a juvenile. Taking on older horses for the first time at York, Kinswoman was just held close home by another horse from the classic generation in Jedd O’Keeffe’s Dan Tucker with Doncaster’s Portland winner Eternal Sunshine back in third spot.
With plenty more improvement to come, Kinswoman can go one better than last week’s creditable effort, the main dangers coming in the shape of Naana’s Sparkle and Duran.
Recommendation: Kinswoman (Nap) - 2/1 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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