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Alan Kelly's Tips - Sunday, 3 May
The first fillies’ Classic of the season is the feature race on the final day of Newmarket’s Guineas meeting on Sunday, the Betfred 1000 Guineas due to get underway at 3:35pm.
Along with a cracking card at headquarters, there are a couple of decent Flat meetings in Britain at Hamilton and Salisbury, while over in Ireland there are fixtures at Cork and Sligo.
1:45pm Newmarket - Sacred Ground (Nap)
Brian Meehan’s Starman filly Esra sets the standard for this Listed Pretty Polly Stakes, the mount of Billy Loughnane ending her juvenile campaign with a creditable fourth place in Longchamp’s Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at the Arc meeting.
While the 107-rated filly is respected, preference is for the John & Thady Gosden-trained SACRED GROUND (Nap), the mount of William Buick. The trainer/jockey combination unleashed a potential star in debutante I’m The One at Newbury last month, the daughter of Sea The Stars ultra-impressive in winning her maiden, after which she was installed as the clear favourite for next month’s Oaks at Epsom.
While Sacred Ground is currently a best price 66/1 with Coral for Epsom, the Kingman filly may be better over today’s two furlong shorter trip. A comfortable winner on her debut in a Yarmouth maiden in September, Sacred Ground still looked as if she would improve for the experience when second behind the unbeaten Ralph Beckett filly Pintara (now with Francis-Henri Graffard in France) in a Newmarket Listed race on her other start at two.
The Clarehaven training partnership have made an excellent start to the season, and in Sacred Ground they have another filly who looks more than capable of making her mark at Listed or Group level.
Recommendation: Sacred Ground (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
2:55pm Newmarket - Dramatic Star
The William Haggas-trained DRAMATIC STAR returns to turf following four defeats on the all-weather over trips ranging from 1m 4f to an extended 2m. I think the five-year-old, who wears cheekpieces for the first time, has his ideal conditions today, as when Tom Marquand’s mount was narrowly beaten by stablemate The Reverend in last season’s Old Borough Cup at Haydock Park.
Running off a mark only 3lb higher today, the Sea The Stars gelding is fancied to record a third victory with a win in this £100k Heritage Handicap. Align The Stars looks best of the three Charlie Johnston runners, while bottom weight Goblet Of Fire is capable of a big run for Seven Barrows trainer Nicky Henderson.
Recommendation: Dramatic Star - 5/1 with Coral
3:35pm Newmarket - Precise & Touleen (Each-Way)
A wide-open Betfred 1000 Guineas featuring a field of 19 fillies, many of which we have yet to see the best of. The first place to start is with the two Ballydoyle contenders, PRECISE and True Love, the pair from a stable which will be going for a seventh win in the first fillies’ Classic of the season, two less than the record of nine set by Robert Robson in the first half of the 19th century.
If there is a potential star in the race it is likely to be the former, a daughter of top sprinter Starspangledbanner, but with plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of her pedigree. While Precise is expected to improve for the run, stablemate True Love will be fit following her win in a Group 3 trial at Leopardstown last month.
Of the two, Precise is the one most likely to be suited by a trip of one mile plus. In a recent interview, trainer Aidan O’Brien said of the filly; “ plenty are saying she’s by Starspangledbanner so won’t stay a mile and a half, but my instinct is that she’s an incredible filly.”
If anywhere near her best, I think Precise will take plenty of beating. At a much bigger price, I will also back Owen Burrows’ TOULEEN (Each-Way), the Shadwell filly a fine opportunity for jockey Saffie Osborne to claim her first Classic success. The daughter of Lope De Vega is highly rated by connections and is sure to improve for her first start of the season when runner-up in last month’s Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury.
Recommendations: Precise - 5/2 with William Hill & Touleen (Each-Way) - 18/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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