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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
After an excellent week ending Sunday 3rd May, we failed to get the rub of the green over the next seven days with no less than 8 seconds, four of which were beaten by half a length or less.
We ended the week with a loss of -£13.92.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 10 May: -£13.92
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£91.14
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£591.80
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 16 May
ITV Racing will be covering eight races on Saturday afternoon, five from Newbury and three from Newmarket, the feature race at the Berkshire racecourse being the Group 1 Boyle Sports Lockinge Stakes at 2:35pm.
1:25pm Newbury - Kalpana
There are few more talented mares in training than the Andrew Balding-trained KALPANA, who, despite having to shoulder a Group 1 winning penalty, is fancied to get her season off to a winning start with victory in this Group 3 Aston Park Stakes.
Following some excellent efforts in defeat last season, including a length defeat at the hands of Calandagan in Ascot’s King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Arc 7th (value for more), Colin Keane’s mount ended 2025 with a comfortable success in the Group 1 Fillies’ & Mares on Champions Day.
If straight enough on her reappearance, the daughter of Study Of Man should be up to conceding the 4lb to her 4 rivals.
Recommendation: Kalpana - 5/4 with William Hill
1:42pm Newmarket - Twisting Physics
On just his fifth career start and first outing for 10 months, the Oliver Cole-trained TWISTING PHYSICS ran an eyecatching race on his reappearance when finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, in a 1m 2f handicap at Newbury last month.
The Dubawi gelding should not be inconvenienced by today’s 2f shorter trip, Jamie Spencer’s mount a winner over 7f at Newbury last summer. Running off a potentially lenient mark of 85, the five-year-old gets the vote ahead of Chris Dwyer’s hat-trick seeking Jimmy Speaking and John Butler’s Final Night.
Recommendations: Twisting Physics - 11/4 with BetVictor
2:00pm Newbury - Allaire
John & Thady Gosden’s Sacred Ground was no match for Charlie Johnston’s Jennifer Jane in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day but is sure to improve for that first start of the season. Ralph Beckett’s royal runner Golden Orbit looked a smart prospect when winning her maiden at Newmarket back in September but looks short enough at a top price 6/4 on what she has achieved so far.
At the 8/1 available with Paddy Power, I would rather back the Andrew Balding-trained/Oisin Murphy-ridden ALLAIRE for owner Miss K Rausing, who has such a good record with her fillies. The daughter of Study Of Man was unfortunate to encounter a couple of decent fillies in Musidora runner-up Felicitas and I’m The One, second to Oaks favourite Amelia Earhart in last week’s Cheshire Oaks, on her two starts to date.
In a race which is sure to throw up plenty of future winners, Allaire looks the value bet.
Recommendation: Allaire - 8/1 with Paddy Power
2:35pm Newbury - Sahlan (Each-Way)
While not the classiest of Lockinges, what the Group 1 contest lacks in star names it makes up for in the competitive nature of this fascinating one mile feature race. I thought Karl Burke’s Zeus Olympios had his limitations exposed when finishing third behind Opera Ballo and Field Of Gold in Sandown’s bet365 Mile on his reappearance, although the Night Of Thunder colt should improve for the run.
Damysus could not have been more impressive in winning Newmarket’s Earl Of Sefton Stakes on his reappearance. That was a Group 3 contest however, and the Frankel colt still has to prove himself at this higher level. Godolphin’s Notable Speech sets the standard based on his Breeders’ Cup Mile victory of last year, although the form of the Charlie Appleby stable has to be a concern.
French-trained horses are often overlooked when visiting these shores, and that may well be the case with Francis-Henri Graffard’s SAHLAN (Each-Way), a trainer who can do little wrong at the moment. Fifth behind Notable Speech at Del Mar on ground almost certainly too fast for the Wootton Bassett colt, Mickael Barzalona’s mount is better judged on his Prix De Moulin victory over Rosallion and The Lion In Winter. At the current 11/1 available with William Hill, Sahlan gets the each-way vote.
Recommendation: Sahlan (Each-Way) - 11/1 with William Hill (3 places)
2:50pm Newmarket - Golden Redemption
Following a long stewards’ enquiry over today’s course and distance earlier in the month, the Mick Appleby-trained Billyjoh was allowed to keep the race, despite bumping runner-up GOLDEN REDEMPTION a furlong out before carrying that horse right inside the closing stages. If the winning margin of the race had been less than the two and a quarter lengths which separated the pair, the stewards may have taken a different view.
Running off a 2lb higher mark, Golden Redemption can gain some compensation for that defeat by taking this Class 3 contest in the hands of jockey David Probert. The consistent four-year-old has yet to finish out of the frame in 7 attempts since joining trainer Andrew Balding, and in receipt of weight from all but one of his rivals, the son of Medaglia d’Oro looks sure to go close.
Recommendation: Golden Redemption - 4/1 with Betfred
3:10pm Newbury - Albert Einstein (Nap)
Touted as a potential 2000 Guineas horse over the winter, I’m pretty sure that we will be seeing Ballydoyle’s ALBERT EINSTEIN (Nap) in many of the top sprint races over the coming months, and expect the Wootton Bassett colt to book his place in next month’s Commonwealth Cup at the royal meeting, Ryan Moore’s mount currently the 10/1 second favourite behind stablemate Charles Darwin for that 6f Group 1 contest on the fourth day.
Unbeaten on both of his starts over 6f as a juvenile, Albert Einstein, like many Ballydoyle runners, has taken a run or two to reach top form this season. Third in Newbury’s 7f Greenham Stakes on his most recent start, I expect this furlong shorter trip to bring out the best in a horse who is surely much better than today’s Listed class opposition.
Karl Burke’s Royal Fixation, previously with Ed Walker, is the only filly in the race; York’s Lowther Stakes winner may be the one to cause Albert Einstein most problems.
Recommendation: Albert Einstein (Nap) - 3/1 with bet365
3:27pm Newmarket - Miraculous
This modest 6f handicap makes only limited appeal as a betting medium in which the tentative vote goes to Tim Easterby’s northern challenger MIRACULOUS, the Too Darn Hot gelding previously in the care of Roger Varian.
On his second start for Easterby at Chester last week, Sean Kirrane’s mount did well to finish a close fourth after finding his way blocked inside the final furlong. Dropped 1lb to a mark of 79, Miraculous is unlikely to need divine help in an effort to win a race of this nature.
Recommendation: Miraculous - 9/2 with bet365
3:45pm Newbury - Lost Boys
A race that has thrown up several future Group 1 performers over the years including Bay Bridge in 2021. I'll be surprised if there is a horse of that calibre in today's renewal, although it would be no surprise if a couple of the 10 contenders go on to prove themselves better than handicappers.
At today's weights, the horse who makes most appeal is David Menuisier’s 89-rated LOST BOYS. A half length behind leading Derby hope Maltese Cross in an Ascot maiden last year, the mount of Jason Watson has won both of his subsequent starts. With the stable going well at the moment, the son of Night Of Thunder looks a decent prospect for the rest of the season, with something like Royal Ascot's Wolferton Stakes as a possible next target.
Recommendation: Lost Boys - 6/1 with Coral
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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