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Following three excellent weeks we were due a bad one, and since Sea Lantern’s narrow Cesarewitch defeat little has gone right, the week ending Sunday 18th October resulting in a loss of -£13.82.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 18 October: -£13.82
P/L for the year to date: +£199.60
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£700.16
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 19 October
The ground for Pontefract’s card on Monday, featuring the 2m 2f Phil Bull Trophy, is forecast to be on the soft side of good, but with the prospect of showers during the day.
2:53pm Pontefract - King High (Nap)
An excellent turnout for this one mile Listed Silver Tankard Stakes for juveniles. Adrian Paul Keatley’s Tyrrhenian Thunder and John O’Donoghue’s Irish raider Mary Doll both made winning debuts and are respected, in particular the latter who won a strong Galway maiden as an unconsidered 66/1 chance last month.
The strongest form, however, is that of the Owen Burrows-trained KING HIGH (Nap), who beat all bar Godolphin’s well regarded Bin Jahwar at Newbury four weeks ago, in a race featuring several previous winners, including Simon & Ed Crisford’s 98-rated Apulia Bay, third in Newmarket’s Group 3 Zetland Stakes 9 days ago.
Cieren Fallon’s mount had previously opened his account when beating Andrew Balding’s Quicken Away in a Newbury maiden, that horse now rated 106 after finishing a creditable third in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at headquarters. A repeat of either of those two efforts would make the son of Kingman very hard to beat in today’s Listed company.
Recommendation: King High (Nap) - 9/4 with bet365
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick.
3:23pm Pontefract - Stormy Impact (Each-Way)
Now on a losing run of 11 since winning a Class 2 handicap over today’s trip on Wolverhampton’s all-weather surface last summer off a mark of 93, Richard & Peter Fahey’s STORMY IMPACT (Each-Way) has now dropped to a career-low rating of 86 and can finally get her head in front once again, especially with the aid of talented apprentice Warren Fentiman’s valuable 3lb claim.
Fourth of 20 in the Epsom ‘Dash’ on Derby Day over the minimum trip, the daughter of Study Of Man got going too late when finishing a close second to Jordan Electrics at Hamilton last month before staying on to finish fourth over today’s course and distance two weeks later. The filly will be more at home under today’s softer conditions and gets the vote over Michael Herrington’s consistent Lady Roxby, who could have been better drawn coming out of stall 10.
Recommendation: Stormy Impact (Each-Way) - 5/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:53pm Pontefract - Maxident
This two and a quarter mile stamina test, named in honour of the founder of the Timeform organisation, has attracted an excellent field of 9 runners headed by Adam Nicol’s Wise Eagle. The dual purpose mount of Billy Garritty was last seen on the Flat finishing a creditable third in the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh back in April, a repeat of which would put the nine-year-old right in the mix for today’s race off the same mark of 95.
The 10-year-old Marble Sands is interesting on his return to the Flat, David Probert’s mount last seen falling at the 18th fence behind I Am Maximus in the Grand National. Henrietta Knights’ In The Breeze, no match for Godolphin’s Aegean Prince in Haydock’s Old Borough Cup last month, finished well clear of the rest of the field and had previously run out an easy winner over 2m on soft ground at Goodwood during the summer.
Runner-up on that occasion was the Kevin Phippart De Foy-trained MAXIDENT, and on 2lb better terms I fancy the Amo Racing-owned six-year-old to reverse that form over today’s extra two furlongs. The Nathaniel gelding looks certain to get an easy lead up front, and if jockey David Egan can get his fractions right, as was the case when beating fellow rival Moon Over Miami at Goodwood last time, I expect Maxident to take plenty of pegging back with conditions to suit.
Recommendation: Maxident - 5/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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