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An excellent week ending Saturday 14th February with 5 winning days out of 6, along with successful naps at 8/1, 3/1 and 4/6. The three losing naps all pulled-up for one reason or another, the most disappointing being that of Myretown in Haydock’s Grand National Trial on Saturday.
The Russell/Scudamore-trained gelding weakened so quickly when headed that connections must be scratching their heads regarding last year’s impressive Ultima winner. To rub salt into the wound, Grand Geste, our nap when pulled-up in last month’s Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster, showed his true form at the Merseyside racecourse with a comfortable victory.
- P/L for the week ending 14th February +£19.92
- P/L for the year 2026 to date +£40.13
- P/L for the year 2025 +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024 +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022 +£540.79
Alan Kelly's Tips - Monday, 16 February
With the forecast of snow and rain for Monday, hopefully, the remaining British jumps card at Carlisle manages to defeat the elements. The ground at the Cumbrian racecourse is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.
1:35pm Carlisle - Netywell (EW)
The most interesting contender for this two mile handicap chase is the Nicky Richards-trained Soft Risk, the 10-year-old not seen since making a successful debut over fences more than two years ago. Three from five over hurdles, the lightly-raced My Risk gelding has clearly not been easy to train and is best watched following such a lengthy absence unless the market speaks in favour of Sean Quinlan’s mount.
Rebecca Menzies’ Twoshotsoftequila is unlikely to turn out again after being pulled-up at Haydock on Saturday, while Ann Hamilton’s Hello Judge will need to perform better than on his two most recent starts if Danny McMenamin’s mount is to record a sixth victory on the track. With the Russell/Scudamore stable fresh from their Kelso treble on Friday, the each-way vote for this Class 3 contest goes to Patrick Wadge’s mount Netywell.
The nine-year-old has been struggling off marks in the mid 120’s since landing a hat-trick of wins around this time two years ago, the last of which came on heavy ground at Newcastle off a mark of 124. Now rated 115, the Willywell gelding ran his best race for some time when finishing fourth at Ayr towards the end of last month, holding every chance until weakening in the closing stages.
With the stable in much better form now, Netywell gets the vote with conditions to suit.
Recommendation: Netywell (EW) at 15/2 (bet365)
2:35pm Carlisle - Upfordebate (NAP)
Now racing off a mark some 23lb higher than when winning on his second start over fences at Hexham last August, the Patrick Neville-trained Upfordebate, successful in three of his next four outings at Perth and Sedgefield (twice), suffered his one defeat over fences since finishing fifth on this course over an inadequate 2m 5f on this course in July, when pulled-up at Hexham in October, a race in which only 3 of the 9 runners managed to complete the course.
Given a break since cruising home under top weight at Sedgefield in December, Brian Hughes’ mount steps-up into Class 3 company for the first time but is fancied to continue his excellent form over the bigger obstacles with a victory in this Challenger Staying Series Qualifier in receipt of between 5lb and 23lb from his 6 rivals.
The Ben Pauling stable had a good Saturday courtesy of three winners at Ascot, including the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase with The Jukebox Kid and a repeat of the stable’s Sound And Fury’s November win on this course would put him bang in the mix, although Ben Jones's mount ran a shocker when tailed-off in Market Rasen’s Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day last time.
Irish challenger Ayiko was far from disgraced when runner-up on his chasing debut at Haydock just before Christmas and could go well off an opening mark of 126. However, Upfordebate has the profile of a horse who may still be a few pounds ahead of the handicapper.
Recommendation: Upfordebate (NAP) at 9/4 (bet365)
6:30pm Wolverhampton - Water Of Leith (EW)
Having tipped Jim Goldie's Water Of Leith for a 5f handicap at Newcastle recently, not for the first time the eight-year-old stayed-on to finish a never-nearer fourth after meeting trouble in running. Over tonight's extra furlong and with regular pilot 5lb claimer Lauen Young in the saddle for this (Rider Restricted Race) contest, the consistent sprinter is fancied to go close in receipt of plenty of weight from his seven rivals.
Runner-up on three of his last four visits to Wolverhampton, the son of Kodiac has dropped to his lowest mark since winning a handicap at Carlisle back in August 2024. With a bit more luck in running than has been the case of late, Water Of Leith can reverse the form with fellow rival Papa Cocktail on 6lb better terms for the length and half which separated the two horses over today’s course and distance just over two weeks ago.
A bigger danger to the selection may be Karl Burke’s top weight Silky Wilkie, the mount of talented 5lb claimer Jack Nicholls.
Recommendation: Water Of Leith (EW) at 13/2 (bet365)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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