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Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 20 August
The Group 1 Legends Global Yorkshire Oaks is the feature race on day two of York’s Ebor meeting on Thursday afternoon, the 1m 4f contest due to get underway at 3:35pm.
3:00pm York - Spell Master (Each-Way)
Not the classiest renewal of this 1m Heritage Handicap with prize money of £150k, Ed Bethell’s 108-rated Point Lynas heading the weights. The most interesting of the 17 runners is the Ralph Beckett-trained Centigrade, who makes his handicap debut following his victory at Southwell of two months ago, the Too Darn Hot colt’s first start since winning on heavy ground at Newbury back in October 2024 in a novice contest which has produced several subsequent winners, including the 106-rated Furthur and 105-rated Daiquiri Bay.
Racing off an opening mark of 102, Rossa Ryan’s mount may be the obvious answer to the outcome of this valuable handicap, although at odds of around 9/2, Centigrade has been well found in the market. With most bookmakers offering 5 places, I think the 25/1 available with Coral about the Oli Rix-trained SPELL MASTER (Each-Way) is a decent value bet against the favourite.
A respectable 6th of 22 in the extended 1m 2f John Smith’s Cup on this course last month, Ray Dawson’s mount is better over this shorter trip and looked a little unlucky on his most recent start when repeatedly denied a clear run behind favourite Crest Of Fire at Glorious Goodwood. Beaten a little over three lengths in finishing 7th, the Kameko gelding is fancied to outrun his odds off today’s 1lb lower mark.
Recommendation: Spell Master (Each-Way) - 25/1 with Coral (5 places)
3:35pm York - Kalpana (Nap)
A tremendous renewal of this Legends Global Yorkshire Oaks featuring a field of 9 runners, probably more than connections of King George V1 And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner KALPANA (Nap) were expecting.
The daughter of Study Of Man’s authoritative victory over Calandagan and Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini at the Berkshire racecourse sets a clear standard for this Group 1 contest and I expect the mount of Colin Keane to prove up to the task once again before a possible crack at the Arc, for which the ultra-consistent mare finished 7th last year, the only time she has finished out of the first three in 17 starts.
Ballydoyle’s Minnie Hauk has nearly 18 lengths to find with Kalpana based on King George form, a bigger danger possibly coming in the shape of Joseph O’Brien’s Johanna Walsh, easy winner of the Irish Oaks last month and in receipt of the 9lb weight-for-age allowance from the Juddmonte-owned favourite.
Best of those at a double-figure price may be another Juddmonte filly in Legacy Link, who didn’t enjoy the best of luck behind fellow rivals Earth Shot and Johanna Walsh when favourite for the Ribblesdale last time.
Recommendation: Kalpana (Nap) - 5/4 with Betfred
4:45pm York - Mia Fantasia
Having tipped the Hugo Palmer-trained MIA FANTASIA at odds of 10/1 for a 7f nursery at Glorious Goodwood, I was on good terms with myself as the daughter of Make Believe was backed as if defeat was out of the question on the Sussex Downs, having been supported into 2/1 favouritism.
In finishing a never-nearer 6th of the 18 runners, it is a race champion jockey Oisin Murphy would love to ride again, as the filly had no luck whatsoever after being slowly away. Bumped 2f out, Mia Fantasia was then denied a clear run on several occasions before finishing best of all when the race was all but over.
With Marco Gianni taking over in the saddle on this occasion, Mia Fantasia, third behind subsequent Group 2 winner Dr Rascal on her previous start, can gain some compensation for that unlucky defeat by taking this £100k nursery off what I believe to be a very lenient mark of just 79.
Along with Mia Fantasia, Hugo Palmer is responsible for 3 of the other 21 contenders, best of which is probably Regal Tiger, while others to consider are Ed Bethell’s Weleyff, Andrew Balding’s Rising Tiger, the mount of Oisin Murphy, along with Mirzimaan and Perfect Nation from the George Boughey stable.
Recommendation: Mia Fantasia - 5/1 with bet365
5:20pm York - Starlight Lass
The second day of York’s Ebor Festival ends with a 21-runner fillies’ handicap. The 7f contest features plenty of in-form contenders, including the hat-trick seeking trio of Tryst, Carnival Of Light and Zooella. Those three horses all have handicap victories to their name, unlike the fourth hat-trick seeking runner, the John & Thady Gosden-trained STARLIGHT LASS, who makes her handicap debut off what may prove to be an attractive mark of 87.
The well-bred daughter of Dubawi, following an eyecatching debut when second at Yarmouth in June, had little trouble in winning small field contests at Newmarket and Yarmouth on her next two starts. On the latter occasion, Saffie Osborne’s mount proved far too good for Roger Varian’s well regarded Raneem, a comfortable winner on her debut at Doncaster from a horse, Dream Vega, who has since gone on to record an easy success in a Chester maiden.
Bred to be better than a handicapper, Starlight Lass could be running in Listed or Group company at some point in the future, and if that proves to be the case, the filly should be up to winning this Class 2 handicap off today’s mark in the 80’s. Ed Bethell’s Oolong Poobong was quietly fancied for Royal Ascot’s Kensington Palace Stakes but could never get competitive from her unfavourable draw in stall 3.
Oisin Orr’s mount is better than that, and has every chance of making the frame along with William Haggas’s Albaydaa, last seen finishing an unlucky fifth in Carlisle’s Listed Eternal Stakes two months ago.
Recommendation: Starlight Lass - 9/2 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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