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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Following a poor start, winners at 7/2 and 9/2 on Friday and 6/1 and 13/2 on Saturday meant the week ending Sunday, 14 June resulted in a profit of +£9.35. Hopefully, we can keep the good run going during the most important week of the Flat season which gets underway on Tuesday afternoon.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 14 June: +£9.35
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£155.50
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£656.16
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 18 June
Thursday is Gold Cup Day at Royal Ascot, the Group 1 stamina test due to get underway at 4:15pm. The going is expected to remain on the firm side of good, with selected watering taking place.
3:05pm Royal Ascot - Joulany (Each-Way)
The Sea The Stars colt Cannes, one of four runners for Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien, was on my short list for this King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) until the mount of the excellent Dylan Browne McMonagle was handed stall 21 for this 22-runner mile and a half contest.
The Oaks-winning jockey will need plenty of luck if he is to defy being drawn out in the car park. The draw has been kinder to O’Brien’s other three runners, best of which may be Ryan Moore’s mount Elceladus (13) who has improved with each of his three runs to date, most recently when opening his account with a narrow victory over Dermot Weld’s promising maiden Almazaan at Leopardstown in April.
The home challenge is headed by Godolphin’s Into The Light, Heyzoom from the Owen Burrows stable and the Ralph Beckett pair of Tierra Del Toro and Joulany. From a stable in excellent form at the moment, the vote goes to Hector Crouch’s mount JOULANY (Each-Way), a jockey with a strike-rate of 34% over the last fortnight (13 from 34).
Beaten half a length by Derby runner-up Maltese Cross in a hot 1m 2f novice stakes at Newbury in April, the son of Sea The Stars could only finish second to Andrew Balding’s Galiyan (favourite for Wednesday’s Queen’s Vase) at Chester on his next start after doing most of the donkey work out in front. Joulany will be better suited by this bigger field, and with a potentially favourable draw in stall 2, along with being recently gelded, is fancied to go close with the aid of a tongue-tie for the first time.
Recommendation: Joulany (Each-Way) - 10/1 with William Hill (5 places)
3:40pm Royal Ascot - Gilded Prize (Nap)
The Oaks form is put to the test in this Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes courtesy of Epsom runner-up Legacy Link. While no match for easy winner Thundering On in that fillies’ classic of 13 days ago, John & Thady Gosden’s charge finished well clear of the rest of the field.
Providing today’s race does not come too soon for the daughter of Dubawi, a big run can be expected from Colin Keane’s mount. We have yet to see the best of William Haggas’s Time Test filly Earth Shot, who is clearly held in high regard and should come on for her head defeat in Goodwood’s Height Of Fashion Stakes last month.
However, the last French-trained filly to win this race was Andre Fabre’s Tulipa back in 1996 and I think Francis-Henri Graffard’s GILDED PRIZE (Nap) can follow suit some 30 years later. Unbeaten on her first three starts, comfortable victories at Chantilly (twice) and Saint-Cloud, the daughter of Frankel didn’t handle the testing conditions when only fifth in the Group 2 Prix Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp last month.
This may well turn out to be a battle between the two Juddmonte-owned fillies, with the vote going to Oisin Murphy’s mount, who is expected to show her true form on today’s forecast ground of good, good to firm in places.
Recommendation: Gilded Prize (Nap) - 7/2 with bet365
4:15pm Royal Ascot - Caballo De Mar (w/o Scandinavia & Trawlerman)
Unbeaten between them on their last nine starts, five four in favour of Ballydoyle’s Scandinavia over Godolphin’s Trawlerman, a victory for one of those two top class stayers is the most likely outcome of this fascinating 11-runner Ascot Gold Cup.
With that in mind, I think the 4/1 available with William Hill about George Scott’s CABALLO DE MAR in the market without the two market leaders may prove to be the value bet of the race, especially with the other leading fancy Rahiebb far from certain to get this marathon trip.
Since finishing second in last season’s Chester Cup, Caballo De Mar has developed into a Group 1 stayer with wins in the 2m 4f Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp's Arc meeting and most recently when just getting the better of William Haggas’s Santorini Star and Al Riffa in the much shorter Prix Vicomtesse Vigier on that course last month.
Prior to that win, Oisin Murphy’s mount lost out by a short head to fellow rival Sweet William in the 2m Sagaro Stakes on this course. Now 2lb better off with John & Thady Gosden’s second-string over today’s extra half a mile, Caballo De Mar can take advantage should either of the big two fail to produce their best.
Recommendation: Caballo De Mar (w/o Scandinavia & Trawlerman) - 4/1 with William Hill
4:50pm Royal Ascot - Organise (Each-Way)
This Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) is often won by a horse who ends up running in Listed or Group company (Docklands won the race in 2023). If that proves to be the case with this year’s renewal, I think the horse in question may well be the John & Thady Gosden-trained ORGANISE (Each-Way).
The Wathnan-owned Night Of Thunder gelding, after winning his first two races at Southwell back in November and Yarmouth in April, still looked very green when beaten half a length by fellow rival Laureate Crown on his handicap debut in Sandown’s Esher Cup later that month.
Still very much a work in progress, we have yet to see the best of James Doyle's mount, who was gelded last month. Drawn nine in a field of 33 and with headgear on for the first time, this is clearly a difficult ask for Organise. However with 6 of the last 11 winners having carried 9st 1lb or more, class often rises to the top in this informative three-year-old contest.
Recommendation: Organise (Each-Way) - 9/1 with William Hill (6 places)
6:10pm Royal Ascot - Blue Brother (Each-Way)
I’m a bit of a sucker for these big field all-age handicaps run on Ascot’s straight course, this 32-runner Buckingham Palace Stakes being one in question. In the belief that those horses drawn high are likely to have an advantage, I am keen on the chances of the Hamad Al Jehani-trained BLUE BROTHER (Each-Way) and jockey James Doyle (drawn 28).
The Wathnan-owned gelding was a springer in the market for last season’s Royal Hunt Cup (backed into 13/2), but everything went wrong for the ex French-trained gelding, first of all when stumbling leaving the stalls before failing to find a clear passage on several occasions in finishing an 11 length 18th of the 30 runners.
While the son of Intello has not been seen since last year’s royal meeting, I think this has been a long-term plan for Blue Brother, who has dropped 2lb to a mark of 98 and has since been gelded.
Recommendation: Blue Brother (Each-Way) - 12/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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