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An excellent week ended Sunday, 1 March, with a profit of +£25.78, including winning naps at 5/4, 13/8, and 5/1 plus the 20/1 victory of Heltenham in the final ITV race on Saturday afternoon.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 7 March
In the lead-up to next week's Cheltenham Festival which gets underway on Tuesday, ITV Racing's coverage on Saturday afternoon comprises four races from Sandown’s Imperial Cup meeting and three from Wolverhampton's all-weather card, including the BetMGM Lincoln Trial at 2:42pm.
1:50pm Sandown - Kaka’s Cousin (Each-Way)
A hugely competitive field of 18 runners for this “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle Final (Premier Handicap). The fact that bookmakers are going 6/1 the field for the £80k two and a half mile contest sums up the level of difficulty for the race which kick-starts this afternoon’s ITV coverage.
At the 10/1 currently available with William Hill, I expect a big run from the Jonjo & A J O’Neill contender KAKA'S COUSIN (Each-Way). Two from three over hurdles, the Mahler gelding proved far too good for Chris Gordon’s Kocktail Bleu at Kelso last month, the runner-up then going on to occupy the same position behind Harry Derham’s Klub De Reve in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton eight days later.
An opening mark of 126 looks more than fair about Jonjo O’Neill Jr’s mount, who gets the each-way vote in a wide-open contest.
Recommendation: Kaka’s Cousin (Each-Way) - 10/1 with William Hill (4 places)
2:05pm Wolverhampton - Dragon Leader
Claims can be made for the majority of the 10 runners in this 6f sprint handicap, the betting headed by James Tate’s Kullazain, who pulled too hard when finishing third at Kempton on his most recent start last month. With three winners from their last four runners (the other beaten a short-head), the Clive Cox stable is clearly in fine form, in which case it could be worth chancing the well handicapped DRAGON LEADER.
Winner of the Listed Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar as a juvenile when rated 96, the five-year-old son of El Kabeir has now dropped to a mark of 85 following several disappointing efforts since then. Rossa Ryan’s mount has had only the one outing since undergoing wind surgery around this time last year, but if anywhere near his best is certainly capable of winning this on his all-weather debut.
Recommendation: Dragon Leader - 11/1 with bet365
2:27pm Sandown - Wreckless Eric (Nap) (Each-Way)
With six winners from their last eight runners, the Neil King stable has hit a rich vein of form in the last couple of weeks, and it would be no surprise to see his Rubber Ball go close off an 8lb higher mark than when landing a bit of a gamble at Newbury last week. While Mondo Man is another with strong claims, I think the horse who finished second in this valuable handicap 12 months ago, WRECKLESS ERIC (Nap) (Each-Way), has a great chance of going one better.
Beaten half a length by fellow rival Go Dante, Kielan Woods’ mount is due to meet Olly Murphy’s charge on 8lb better terms this afternoon. Sixth behind the Champion Hurdle bound Tutti Quanti in Newbury’s William Hill Hurdle last month, Wreckless Eric will be running off his lowest mark since winning a handicap at Cheltenham’s November meeting in 2024 and looks to have been targeted at this race for some time by his shrewd stable.
Recommendation: Wreckless Eric (Nap) (Each-Way) - 7/1 with bet365 (6 places)
2:42pm Wolverhampton - La Botte
Currently 10/1 second favourite for Doncaster’s Lincoln Handicap in three weeks time, the Harry Eustace-trained LA BOTTE is likely to head the market for that historic contest on Town Moor if able to defy top weight in this all-weather trial.
The son of Too Darn Hot definitely has a bit of class about him, the mount of Jamie Spencer, a wide margin winner on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface 12 months ago, fourth in Newmarket’s Listed King Charles 11 Stakes behind Cosmic Year back in May, before finding only Godolphin’s Arabian Story a neck too good in Royal Ascot’s 30-runner Britannia Stakes the following month.
Not seen since that run of almost nine months ago, the lightly-raced four-year-old is capable of outclassing his rivals if straight enough on his reappearance, best of which are probably recent winners Kingdom Come and Regal Ulixes.
Recommendation: La Botte - 9/2 with William Hill
3:00pm Sandown - Burds Of A Feather
This Listed National Hunt Flat Race makes only limited appeal from a betting perspective, a tentative vote going to Max Comley’s BURDS OF A FEATHER. David Bass’s mount was well-backed to make a winning debut for the stable at Warwick last month, the daughter of Westerner’s supporters never having a moment’s worry as the mare came home unchallenged from her seven rivals.
While this is a big step-up in class for the five-year-old, she is clearly held in some regard and the type to put her up-and-coming trainer on the map with a victory in this £30k contest.
Recommendation: Burds Of A Feather - 5/1 with bet365
3:15pm Wolverhampton - Heathcliff (Each-Way)
I’ve been following James Fanshawe’s HEATHCLIFF (Each-Way) off another cliff over the last year or so, that was until the Iffraaj gelding won a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield last month, the five-year-old’s first success following eight consecutive defeats.
The mount of Daniel Muscutt has always looked the type to me who is capable of winning at Listed or perhaps even Group 3 level, despite a handicap mark of just 95. While Heathcliff is the lowest rated of the 8 runners for this 7f Wulfruna Stakes, the consistent performer gets the each-way vote in an effort to come home in front, to the delight of his supporters, and possibly Kate Bush.
Recommendation: Heathcliff (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Coral (3 places)
3:35pm Sandown - Yes Day (Each-Way)
This could be a good day for the O’Neill stable as I expect a return to form for joint bottom weight YES DAY (Each-Way) in the final race covered by ITV prior to next week’s eagerly-anticipated Cheltenham Festival. Hopefully, the aid of cheekpieces for the first time will help the eight-year-old show the kind of form which enabled the Court Cave gelding win races at Hereford and Exeter around this time last year.
Today’s ground and distance will suit the mount of Jonjo O’Neill Jr better than when unplaced over an extended 3m 4f at Windsor on his most recent start. Now running off a mark 4lb lower than when last successful, Yes Day can end the day on a successful note for the Jackdaws Castle team.
Recommendation: Yes Day (Each-Way) - 10/1 with Betfred (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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