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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A small loss of -£5.54 for the week ending Sunday, April.
The horse racing action moves up several gears during the week ahead, culminating in Saturday’s Randox Grand National. Aintree’s three day meeting gets underway on Thursday afternoon, with the ground expected to be on the soft side of good.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 5 April: -£5.54
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£63.06
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£563.72
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 9 April
The first day of Aintree's Grand National meeting on Thursday is expected to get underway on watered ground, currently described as good to soft, good in places.
On a card featuring four Grade 1 contests, the one race run of the Grand National fences is the 2m 5f Randox Foxhunters’ at 3:30pm.
2:55pm Aintree - Impaire Et Passe (w/o Jango Baie)
Fourth, beaten half a length in Kempton’s King George V1 Chase, prior to finishing a creditable second behind runaway Gold Cup winner Gaelic Warrior at the Cheltenham Festival, Nicky Henderson’s Jango Baie has improved for the step-up in trip this season and is clearly the one to beat in this Grade 1 Bowl. However, I am more interested in the market without the favourite, which looks quite competitive between the other four contenders.
Pic D’orhy has been pulled-up on two of his three visits to Aintree (won the 2m 4f Melling Chase back in 2023) and is almost certainly better over a trip shorter than today’s 3m 1f. Dan Skelton’s Protektorat is a particular favourite of mine, but at the age of 11 (along with Pic D’orhy) is likely to be found wanting now at the highest level.
Cotswold Chase winner Spillane’s Tower bypassed the festival and will go into today’s race a fresh horse. The J P McManus-owned gelding may well be the one to give Jango Baie most to do, but I’m going to take a chance on Willie Mullins’ IMPAIRE ET PASSE returning to his best following a below-par effort when eventually pulled-up in the Ryanair last time.
Paul Townend’s mount is unbeaten on both of his visits to Aintree, first of all when running out a narrow winner of the Aintree Hurdle in 2024 before taking the scalp of Jango Baie in the Manifesto here 12 months ago. If back to that kind of form, the Diamond Boy gelding is capable of running the favourite close.
Recommendation: Impaire Et Passe (w/o Jango Baie) - 9/4 with William Hill
3:30pm Aintree - Barton Snow (Nap)
The finish of the Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival was dominated by the heavily supported BARTON SNOW (Nap) and the J P McManus-owned favourite Its On The Line, the former coming out on top by a neck with the rest of the field some seven and a half lengths and more behind. Today’s race was always the preferred option for the mount of amateur Mr Henry Crow, due to the shorter trip of 2m 5f and the possibility of less testing ground.
Despite a field of 25 for today’s race over the big fences, I expect the nine-year-old market leader to come out on top once again granted a fairly trouble-free passage. Barton Snow has a tendency to think he has done enough when hitting the front, so I expect his rider to make his challenge as late as possible.
While Its On The Line and Unexpected Party look the main dangers to the selection, Dan Skelton’s second runner Snipe is capable of making the frame at a big price. A best price 11/4 at the moment, I expect odds of 10/3 or 7/2 to be available about Barton Snow on the morning of the race.
Recommendation: Barton Snow (Nap) - 11/4 with William Hill
4:05pm Aintree - Alexei (Each-Way)
Second and third at a respectful distance behind easy Champion Hurdle winner Lossiemouth at the festival, I expect the Dan Skelton-trained The New Lion to reverse the half a length which separated the J P McManus-owned gelding from Gordon Elliott’s Brighterdaysahead at Prestbury Park last month. Today’s extra half a mile is sure to suit Harry Skelton’s mount, who looked slightly outpaced over that extended 2m when tapped for speed 2 out.
Back in fourth place at Cheltenham was the Joe Tizzard-trained ALEXEI (Each-Way), who may well have challenged for second spot but for a bad mistake at the final hurdle. With several bookmakers offering an extra place on this seven-runner Grade 1 contest, I would rather back Brendan Powell’s mount (each-way).
Running off a mark of 130 around this time last year, the six-year-old has not put a foot wrong all season, leading to Alexei’s two stone higher rating of 158. Mainly campaigned over the minimum trip, the gelding won his maiden at Taunton by 25 lengths over 2m 3f and is unlikely to be inconvenienced on his first attempt over today’s 2m 4f.
Recommendation: Alexei (Each-Way) - 9/1 with Betfred (3 places)
4:40pm Aintree - Javert Allen (Each-Way)
An easy winner of this race 12 months ago off a 3lb lower mark, this has clearly been the plan for the Paul Nicholls-trained Sans Bruit for some time. While it is hard to fancy Harry Cobden’s mount based on his five runs this season, the eight-year-old’s rating has dropped 11lb and under what are probably his perfect conditions, we are likely to see a much better effort from the son of Triple Threat.
The Ditcheat runner has been well found in the market however, so whether current odds of 3/1 represent anything in the way of value remains to be seen. Towards the bottom of the weights, I would rather back the Jane Williams-trained JAVERT ALLEN (Each-Way) now that Ciaran Gething’s mount drops back down to the minimum trip.
Racing over an extended 2m 4f on his last two starts, at Cheltenham and Kempton, the No Risk At All gelding didn’t appear to get home on the soft/good to soft ground. With the aid of cheekpieces for the first time and in receipt of weight from most of his rivals, I expect a big run from the lightly-raced seven-year-old.
Recommendation: Javert Allen (Each-Way) - 9/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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