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Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 8 July
Flat racing has the scene to itself on Wednesday courtesy of the meetings at Yarmouth, Catterick, Chepstow and Kempton Park (all-weather) in Britain and Fairyhouse in Ireland. Good to firm ground is expected for all turf cards.
2:15pm Yarmouth - Lovers Leap
I expect the winner of this 7f fillies' handicap to come from the trio of Michael Herrington's joint top weight Dream Illusion, Jane Chapple-Hyam's LOVERS LEAP or the Andrew Balding-trained Allegrino, the first two stables in particular enjoying an excellent spell at the moment.
Dream Illusion is 4 from 18 on the all-weather but yet to get her head in front from 9 starts to date on turf. Beaten a neck by Balding's Nanoscience in a fillies' handicap over today's trip at Wetherby last month, it can only be a matter of time before Dylan Hogan's mount breaks her duck on the surface.
The two three-year-olds, Lovers Leap and Allegrino, are far less exposed however, the latter having her third start in a handicap, the most recent when finishing 3rd of 5 in an apprentice handicap at Salisbury last month. Jockey William Buick takes over on the daughter of Oasis Dream for the first time and a big run looks guaranteed. Slight preference, however, is for Jane Chapple-Hyam's Lovers Leap, a stable with a record of 6 winners from their last 15 runners as I write.
After having little trouble in landing the odds in a minor contest at Beverley in May, Billy Loughnane's mount probably did too much up front when weakening into 6th place at Salisbury on her handicap debut 11 days later after attempting to make all of the running. The form of that 14-runner contest has worked out well, and with more restrained tactics on this occasion, the Lope De Vega filly can prove the one to beat.
Recommendation:
2:45pm Yarmouth - Dubai Charm (Nap)
Stuart Williams' Holi Scarlett has a 6lb penalty to carry for her narrow victory in a Nottingham nursery last week with apprentice Jack Doughty in the saddle. William Buick takes over on the daughter of Bungle Inthejungle, and another decent effort from the filly would come as no surprise.
The twice-raced pair of Karl Burke's Or Another and Archie Watson's My Maria are worth a look for any market confidence, but I think this 5f nursery can go to the Richard Hughes-trained top weight DUBAI CHARM (Nap), who makes her handicap debut off what may prove to be a lenient mark of 75.
An eyecatching second on her debut at Nottingham in April, the Blackbeard filly, while only third on this course the following month, encountered a couple of decent rivals in Silent Beauty and Scommessa Sicura, the latter rated 87 following a couple of excellent subsequent efforts in defeat.
While out of her depth when finishing down the field in Royal Ascot's Group 3 Albany Stakes last time, Billy Loughnane's mount ran well for a long way and is expected to be suited by this drop back to the minimum trip for the first time.
Recommendation:
6:50pm Fairyhouse - Galileo Dream (Each-Way)
This Group 3 Stanerra Stakes is the highlight of tonight's card at Fairyhouse, the 1m 6f contest expected to go the way of the J P McManus-owned and Joseph O'Brien-trained Goodie Two Shoes if the betting proves to be correct, the seven-year-old put in at an opening show of 8/11.
With a field of 9 runners, I would rather look for an each-way alternative to the short-priced favourite, last year's Melbourne Cup runner-up last seen finishing 8th of 10 at Limerick last month when beaten over 17 lengths. Along with Goodie Two Shoes, O'Brien is also responsible for Galileo Dream and Jannah Star; at an opening show of 18/1 I think Scott McCullagh's mount GALILEO DREAM (Each-Way) can make the frame at the very least.
An excellent 4th in the Chester Cup back in May, the daughter of Galileo Gold failed to last out the 2m 4f trip of the Ascot Stakes last time, but lost nothing in defeat in finishing 7th of the 20 runners, beaten four and a half lengths. The other one to consider is Johnny Murtagh's Floresta, who will be fitter for her first run of the season at Gowran Park in May.
Recommendation:
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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