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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Our 4th winning week in a row, the highlight being the victory of 10/1 Nap of the Day Thistle Ask (started 3/1) in Friday's Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter.
Three winning Naps out of over the six days, the most impressive being Danielle's nine-length rout (tipped at 2/1) at Doncaster on Saturday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 9 November: +£10.89
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£71.83
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£557.82
Alan Kelly's Tips - Sunday, 16 November
Cheltenham stages the final day of its Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting on Sunday afternoon, while at Fontwell the main race on the card is the extended 3m 3f BetGoodwin Southern National, one of 6 races due to be covered on ITV Racing.
Conditions on Thursday were described as good to soft at both courses, although this looks guaranteed to change given the amount of rain forecast over the weekend.
2:20pm Cheltenham - Calgary Tiger (Each-Way)
Racing from 11lb out of the handicap, it is no surprise that the William de Best-Turner-trained CALGARY TIGER (Each-Way) is the rank outsider at odds of 50/1 with BoyleSports for this two mile handicap chase. The 10-year-old likes nothing better than to bowl along in front, and despite the massive disadvantage faced by Harry Reed’s mount, I expect the Tiger Groom gelding to outrun those odds by some way.
Third in handicaps at Aintree and Sandown towards the back end of last year, Calgary Tiger caused a bit of a shock when winning at 50/1 following a break of over 700 days at Wincanton in 2023, making all of the running and never looking in any danger of being caught. The each-way selection handles testing ground,and if getting into a nice rhythm at the head of affairs on his first visit to Prestbury Park, is capable of causing something of a surprise.
Recommendation: Calgary Tiger (Each-Way) - 50/1 with BoyleSports (3 places)
2:55pm Cheltenham - Tanganyika & Transmission (Each-Way)
With the 165-rated Protektorat heading the weights for this extended 3m 3f Premier Handicap, three of the 10 contenders, Fascile Mode, Lady Balko and Transmission will be racing from out of the handicap. With such a burden to carry, in what are sure to be testing conditions, Dan Skelton’s charge faces a stiff test on his first run of the season.
Venetia Williams’ TANGANYIKA just creeps into the handicap off a mark of 140. Charlie Deutsch’s mount is at his best over a severe test of stamina and when the mud is flying, the seven-year-old son of Martaline, last seen finishing a close second in the Midland’s Grand National, almost certainly the one to beat in receipt of 25lb from Protektorat.
I will also back the Neil Mulholland-trained TRANSMISSION (Each-Way) at a double-figure price. While the eight-year-old is 9lb wrong in the weights, that is negated somewhat by the 7lb claim of jockey Harriet Tucker. Runner-up over slightly shorter on this course last December behind Gold Cup hopeful Haiti Couleurs (rated 154) when attempting to give Rebecca Curtis’s Irish Grand National winner 2lb, Transmission looks a thorough stayer who should handle testing conditions and is sure to have come on for his run on this course last month.
Recommendations: Tanganyika - 7/2 with Coral & Transmission (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:30pm Cheltenham - Mirabad & King William Rufus (Each-Way)
As you would expect for this £100k Greatwood Hurdle, cases can be made for most of the 20 runners, top of the list being MIRABAD on his first start for in-form trainer Dan Skelton, the son of Gleneagles previously in the care of Richard Newland and Jamie Insole when running out an impressive winner on this course just before last christmas.
As well as backing Harry Skelton's mount, I think it is also worth having an each-way interest in Chris Gordon’s bottom weight KING WILLIAM RUFUS (Each-Way) at a big price with jockey Harry Cobden booked to ride. A wide-margin winner of what looked to be a competitive handicap at Ascot last December, the eight-year-old ran better than his finishing position of 6th would suggest in Newbury’s valuable William Hill Hurdle back in February.
A respectable 4th on his reappearance here last month, King William Rufus can outrun his current odds of 33/1.
Recommendations: Mirabad - 11/2 with William Hill & King William Rufus (Each-Way) - 33/1 with William Hill (5 places)
4:00pm Cheltenham - Bud Fox (Nap)
A cracking Listed National Hunt Flat Race featuring any number of promising types, many of which are sure to make their mark when eventually sent hurdling. The Twiston-Davies’ Saint Jeannais looked especially useful when strolling away with a Bumper at Worcester last month.
However, the most exciting prospect among the field of 16 is Gavin Cromwell’s Irish raider BUD FOX (Nap). The Walk In The Park gelding was well fancied for the 24-runner Willie Coonan Memorial INH Flat Race at the Punchestown Festival when partnered by top amateur Derek O’Connor.
That confidence proved well justified as Bud Fox came home clear of his rivals in a race which has produced four subsequent winners from those which have raced since. Keith Donoghue’s mount can get his season off to the best possible start with a victory in this informative contest.
Recommendation: Bud Fox (Nap) - 7/4 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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