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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
A small loss of -£5.54 for the week ending Sunday, April.
The horse racing action moves up several gears during the week ahead, culminating in Saturday’s Randox Grand National. Aintree’s three day meeting gets underway on Thursday afternoon, with the ground expected to be on the soft side of good.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 5 April: -£5.54
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£63.06
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£563.72
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 10 April
Friday’s card at Aintree features four Grade 1 races along with a three fiendishly difficult handicaps, including the Randox Topham Chase (Premier Handicap) over the big fences at 4:05pm.
The current going of good to soft, good in places is likely to remain unchanged for the second day.
1:45pm Aintree - Indeevar Bleu & Ike Sport (Each-Way)
Having backed Olly Murphy’s INDEEVAR BLEU for last month’s BetMGM Cup (formerly the Coral Cup) only for the unexposed eight-year-old to be ruled out with a minor problem, I have to give Sean Bowen’s mount another chance to follow-up his Boxing Day course and distance win, despite now racing off a 9lb higher mark.
Indeevar Bleu’s only defeat from three starts this season came at the hands of subsequent runaway William Hill Hurdle winner Tutti Quanti in Newbury’s Gerry Feilden back in November. The Blue Bresil gelding had a second wind op earlier in the year and possesses more potential than most of his rivals in Aintree’s opener.
At a big price, I will also back the Neil Mulholland-trained IKE SPORT (Each-Way), who will be getting plenty of weight off his 21 rivals due to the 7lb claim of his rider Harry Atkins. Far from disgraced when finishing 9th of 24 in the Pertemps Final at the festival, the eight-year-old will be better suited by today’s half a mile shorter trip and can improve upon his 5th place in this race 12 months ago, Ike Sport now set to meet the winner of that race, Wellington Arch, on 24lb better terms including his rider’s allowance.
Recommendations: Indeevar Bleu - 5/1 with William Hill & Ike Sport (Each-Way) - 28/1 with bet365 (5 places)
2:20pm Aintree - Regent’s Stroll (Nap)
I’m not convinced this course will play to the strengths of Brown Advisory third Salver or Jamie Snowden’s Wendigo, who was still in with a chance of being placed when falling at the last at Cheltenham, the pair previously fourth and third respectively behind Kitzbuhel in Kempton’s Kauto Star on Boxing Day.
Miami Magic has done little wrong since going over fences but may be better over a slightly shorter trip, whereas I have been waiting for Paul Nicholls’ REGENT'S STROLL (Nap) to step-up in distance and expect to see Harry Cobden’s mount fulfil his earlier promise with a victory in this 3m 1f Mildmay Novices’ Chase.
The Ditcheat team have always held this son of Walk In The Park in high esteem, and on a course where Regent’s Stroll came within half a length of beating Gordon Elliott’s Honesty Policy in last year’s Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at this meeting, the seven-year-old can at last justify his trainer’s confidence. One place ahead of Regent’s Stroll in the Jack Richards at Cheltenham was Willie Mullins’ Gold Dancer, who may prove the main danger to the selection.
Recommendation: Regent’s Stroll (Nap) - 5/1 with BetVictor
3:30pm Aintree - JPR One (Each-Way)
Fourth behind Gaelic Warrior in the Gold Cup on his most recent start, Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning drops back to this two and a half mile trip for the first time since finishing third behind last month’s Champion Chase winner Il Etait Temps at this meeting two years ago.
The grey son of Flemensfirth has the aid of cheekpieces for the first time and has obvious claims of taking this Grade 1 Melling Chase along with last month’s Ryanair winner Heart Wood. While Darragh O’Keeffe’s mount holds Joe Tizzard’s JPR ONE (Each-Way) on the form of that race, I expect Brendan Powell’s mount to get much closer to Henry De Bromhead’s charge on a course which will suit the nine-year-old better than Prestbury Park.
JPR One looked to have most of his rivals in trouble in the Ryanair until headed by the winner going to 2 out, eventually weakening into fourth place. The Court Cave gelding has been running well all season under big weights in handicaps and is fancied to outrun his odds in a fascinating renewal of this Grade 1 contest.
Recommendation: JPR One (Each-Way) - 14/1 with Betfred (3 places)
4:05pm Aintree - Il Est Francais & Primoz (Each-Way)
Since finishing second to Banbridge in the 2024 King George V1 Chase at Kempton, Tom George’s hugely talented IL EST FRANCAIS has proved a big disappointment in the last year or so, the eight-year-old having been pulled-up in both Ascot’s Ladbrokes 1965 Chase and Boxing Day’s King George on his last two starts.
Following a recent wind op, connections have been very bullish lately regarding the wellbeing of a horse who produced one of the best performances by a novice in recent years when running away with Kempton’s Kauto Star at the end of 2023. It would not surprise me to see the top weight put up a ‘Crisp like’ performance today if the son of Karaktar takes to the big fences. I will back Jonathan Burke’s mount (win only) but also have a saver on the Russell/Scudamore-trained PRIMOZ (Each-Way).
I was impressed with the Westerner gelding’s debut over fences at Wetherby back in October 2024 when, after jumping like an old hand, Derek Fox’s mount ran out a comfortable winner without being hard pressed. While Primoz failed to build on that initial promise on his next 11 starts over fences, the eight-year-old could not have been more impressive on his most recent start at Ayr last month when cruising home from his 5 rivals.
Despite a rise of 10lb for that 13 length victory, Primoz gets into this race off joint bottom weight (2lb out of the handicap) and makes plenty of each-way appeal at the 25/1 currently available with Coral (6 places).
Recommendations: Il Est Francais - 18/1 with William Hill & Primoz (Each-Way) - 25/1 with Coral (6 places)
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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