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A disappointing week ending Sunday, 22 March, or should I say a disappointing Saturday, as we were just in front going into the weekend. Three seconds at odds of 11/4, 15/2 and 10/1 proved frustrating, in particular the head defeat of Knickerbockerglory at Bangor. I also thought our 22/1 selection Wasthatok was still going well when failing to avoid the fall of The Navigator at Kelso.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 22 March: -£6.77
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£72.10
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£572.76
Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 25 March
Wednesday's horse racing action comprises the jumps cards at Hereford and Hexham, together with the all-weather meetings at Lingfield in the afternoon and Kempton Park in the evening. Good ground is expected at both national hunt fixtures.
The most interesting race of the day is the reappearance of Constitution Hill in the 7:30pm Virgin Bet Novice Stakes at Kempton Park. The 1m 4f contest may provide a clue or two as to where the headline-grabbing nine-year-old goes next in his new career on the flat.
2:30pm Hereford - Warner’s Cross (Each-Way)
After being pulled-up on heavy ground on his most recent start at Fontwell over three months ago, Lelant, the mount of champion jockey Sean Bowen is capable of bouncing back on today’s good ground, the eight-year-old previously a winner over today’s course and distance in October before following up at Market Rasen six weeks later.
On his first outing since the beginning of December, the market may prove the best guide to the chances of the Glamorgan trained runner. Local trainer Clare Hobson has only had the two runners during the last couple of weeks, one finishing a close fourth at Wolverhampton, the other landing a bit of a gamble in a handicap chase at Huntingdon last week.
With cheekpieces on for the first time and following wind surgery, I think the stable’s WARNER'S CROSS (Each-Way) may prove the one to beat in this modest Class 5 handicap chase. After a previous wind op in March 2023, the nine-year-old was in the process of running a big race when falling 2 out over hurdles at Market Rasen that summer. Making his chasing debut on that track 12 months later, Warner’s Cross finished a promising second of the 11 runners off an opening mark of 93.
Off the track for over a year, the mount of Dylan Johnston, now rated 87, is back for a second attempt over fences following a couple of spins over hurdles towards the end of last year. In such a weak race, it is worth taking a chance on the Leading Light gelding reproducing that first effort over the bigger obstacles.
Recommendation: Warner’s Cross (Each-Way) - 16/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:41pm Hexham - Wal Buck’s
This four mile marathon will be just the third start over fences for the Nicky Richards-trained Jo Coko, who opened his account at Uttoxeter two months ago over a trip of 3m 2f. Sean Quinlan’s mount was far from fluent at many of his fences prior to that victory in a novices’ handicap and may be found wanting against a field of more experienced rivals in this stamina test.
There are no doubts regarding the stamina of Christian Williams’ Planned Paradise, who did us a favour when winning Bangor-On-Dee’s North Wales National last month. A rise of 9lb will make things tougher for the son of Westerner, although the 10-year-old’s jockey Charlie Maggs is well worth his 3lb claim.
Tim Easterby’s Court In Slip, placed on his last 5 starts, is sure to be there or thereabouts once again, while Nicky Richards’ other runner Marown and Rob Roy Macgregor from the Sandy Thomson stable are others to consider, the vote goes to the Russell/Scudamore co top weight WAL BUCK'S.
Derek Fox’s mount is a thorough stayer who made all off 12st on heavy ground over 3m 2f at Kelso on his penultimate start before finishing fourth in Haydock’s extended 3m 4f Tim Molony Chase earlier this month. Still in with a chance jumping the last at the Merseyside racecourse, I thought the seven-year-old performed better than his finishing position would suggest.
While the stable’s recent form is a slight concern, I expect a big run from the J P McManus-owned gelding.
Recommendation: Wal Buck’s - 10/3 with bet365
4:11pm Hexham - Drop Kick (Each-Way) (Nap)
At the age of 5, the Mark Walford-trained DROP KICK (Each-Way) (Nap) is the youngest of the 16 contenders for the two and a half mile handicap hurdle. After winning at Carlisle on his handicap debut back in November, the Wings Of Eagles gelding has proved a model of consistency, finishing in the frame on all four subsequent starts.
Now running off a career-high mark of 96, it may appear that the handicapper has finally caught up with Jamie Hamilton’s mount, who was last seen finishing 3rd of 15 at Newcastle with fellow rival Cold Henry two places further back. The latter has since gone on to win at Catterick and is due to meet Drop Kick on 3lb worse terms for the fifteen and a half lengths which separated the pair at the north-east track.
With the Mark Walford stable continuing in decent form, and with the prospect of yet more improvement to come from Drop Kick, the gelding is fancied to continue his progression at the main expense of top weight Another High Five, a promising second on his handicap debut at Kelso last month, and Donald Whillans’ So Many Roads, who failed to get the run of the race when attempting to follow-up his January victory at Ayr when returning to the Scottish racecourse five weeks later.
Recommendation: Drop Kick (Each-Way) (Nap) - 13/2 with bet365 (5 places)
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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