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A small loss of £0.70 for the week ending Sunday, 23 November, although we did have three out of five winning naps (one non-runner), the big disappointment being the dismal run of Il Est Francais at Ascot on Saturday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 23 November: -£0.70
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£71.13
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£557.12
Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 25 November
Tuesday afternoon’s jumps action comes from the meetings at Hereford (good) and Southwell (good to soft, soft in places) in Britain, along with the Irish card at Tramore (heavy, soft in places).
2:00pm Hereford - Gavin (Each-Way)
It always seems a bit unfair when a horse goes up significantly in the weights following a defeat, as was the case with the Kerry Lee-trained Wistmans Prince who went up 8lb after falling on his handicap debut over today’s course and distance last month.
Considering the five-year-old was 13 lengths clear in the hands of amateur Harry O’Dwyer when coming to grief at the final obstacle, it is understandable that the Jack Hobbs gelding is being asked to race off a revised mark of 87, partnered on this occasion by jockey Liam Harrison.
It may be that the lightly-raced gelding is still well-treated, although this looks a much stronger contest than was the case three weeks ago. Tim Vaughan’s Golden Identity improved to finish second at Ffos Las last month on just his fifth start over hurdles and is one of several with claims in an open race, along with last time out winners Hillsin and Keep On Cobbling. However, with 5 places widely available, the vote goes to GAVIN (Each-Way) from the Mickey Bowen stable.
This will be the 42nd outing over hurdles for the Bated Breath gelding, who has certainly been kept busy since leaving trainer Joe Ponting two and a half years ago, winning on three occasions (all at Ffos Las), the most recent when making all of the running to record a comfortable victory back in May. Surprisingly, this will be the first visit to Hereford for Gavin, who will be partnered by namesake Gavin Sheehan, also for the first time.
Narrowly beaten off a 3lb higher mark at Cartmel during the summer, the each-way selection is more than capable of going close in this competitive Class 5 handicap.
Recommendation: Gavin (Each-Way) - 18/1 with bet365 (5 places)
2:25pm Southwell - Precious Metal (Nap)
While it's been over a year since Tom Dascombe had his last winner over hurdles, the trainer has been in good form on the flat of late with two of his last three runners proving successful, the third coming a close second. After leaving the stable of Ed Walker for that of Dascombe two months ago, the dual flat winner Media Mogul made a pleasing debut over the smaller obstacles when finishing a close fourth at Huntingdon earlier this month.
Always prominent, David Bass’s mount came through to lead 3 out, only to find no extra when challenged at the final hurdle. That was still a promising first effort for the four-year-old however, who can only improve with that run under his belt. While the Advertise gelding is respected, along with Next Twist for the trainer/jockey partnership of Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen, this looks a good opportunity for Henrietta Knight’s PRECIOUS METAL (Nap) to open his account over hurdles.
Winner of A Listed Bumper on Cheltenham's New Year’s Day card before finishing 7th in a similar race at Newbury the following month, the four-year-old proved no match for Ben Pauling’s Taurus Bay on his first start over hurdles at Stratford towards the end of last month, the gelding having to settle for second place in that 14-runner novices hurdle.
Considering that was Precious Metal’s first outing for 264 days and the possibility that the easy winner could prove well above average, that was a pleasing debut over hurdles from Robbie Dunne’s mount. There is unlikely to be anything of Taurus Bay’s calibre among today’s field of 12, in which case Henrietta Knight’s charge should have little trouble in going one better.
Recommendation: Precious Metal (Nap)
3:00pm Southwell - Platenium
An expensive loser when unseating his rider at the 3rd fence in a handicap chase at Sedgefield recently, the Sam England-trained PLATENIUM now reverts back to hurdles following that costly defeat at odds of 10/11 at the County Durham racecourse.
The ex Ben Pauling inmate had previously been running well over the smaller obstacles, opening his account over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month, prior to finishing a close third off a 5lb higher mark at Newcastle 25 days later. Sixth in that Uttoxeter race was Surrey Lord who ran out an easy winner next time, while the fifth-placed horse Little Venice reopposes on 5lb better terms for the 6 lengths which separated the pair.
In what looks to be a very winnable novices’ limited handicap hurdle, the mount of in-form rider Kielan Woods can recoup the losses of those who supported the six-year-old at Sedgefield 12 days ago.
Recommendation: Platenium
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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