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A decent Ebor week with a profit of +£9.53 to a £1 level stake, although things could have been so much better, as luck was certainly not on our side with a total of 8 seconds over the six days.
After trading at 1.01 in running, Almaqam was caught on the post in the International, 14/1 chance French Duke failed by the minimum margin to get up in Friday’s feature handicap, and Hopewell Rock (tipped at 12/1) just lost out in the Ebor after jockey Callum Rodriguez dropped his whip inside the final furlong. A fabulous four days of action on the Knavesmire, but frustrating all the same.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 23 August: +£9.53
P/L for the year to date: +£156.18
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£656.84
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 27 August
With the forecast of light rain, the ground for Carlisle’s meeting on Thursday afternoon is expected to ride on the soft side of good.
There is an excellent evening’s jumps card at Newton Abbot, where watering is taking place on the good to firm ground.
2:00pm Carlisle - Epidavros (Each-Way)
Jim Goldie’s Sanafi Zabeel ran out a cosy winner after making all in an extended one mile handicap at Hamilton 16 days ago and the five-year-old will be fancied by many to follow up in this nine furlongs amateur jockeys’ handicap in the hands of Miss Kayleigh Williams.
Back in fourth place at Hamilton, beaten just over two lengths, was the Katie Scott-trained EPIDAVROS (Each-Way), and on 5lb better terms I fancy the mount of Mr Freddie Robson to reverse that form. The daughter of Magna Grecia has an excellent record at the Cumbrian racecourse with form figures reading 1-5-3.
That 5th place finish in the 16-runner Lady Dacre Bell last July was a creditable effort, with Epidavros finishing less than two lengths behind the well-supported favourite Hot Cash. Now running off a career-low mark of 66, the selection will appreciate the good to soft conditions at Carlisle, even more so if the forecast rain for the area materialises.
Richard & Peter Fahey’s Up The Jazz is another to consider along with Spirit Catcher from the Philip Kirby stable.
Recommendation: Epidavros (Each-Way) - 13/2 with bet365 (3 places)
3:00pm Carlisle - Ten Clarets
I think the two horses to concentrate on for this one mile nursery are joint top weights TEN CLARETS and Kanzi. The latter made an encouraging debut when runner-up to Ed Walker’s Bymiddaytomorrow in an Ayr maiden last month, the winner going on to follow-up at Thirsk 11 days later before finishing a respectable 7th of 18 at York last week.
The Charlie Johnston-trained filly had little trouble in going one better at Lingfield earlier in the month, although it remains to be seen what Callum Shepherd’s mount beat on that occasion. Having tipped Karl Burke’s Ten Clarets on his last two starts, following a promising debut behind subsequent July Stakes winner Inner City Blues at York in June, I am prepared to give the son of Ten Sovereigns another chance to fulfil that promise off what I believe to be a very lenient mark of 79.
Pierre-Louis Jamin’s mount ran far too free when beaten, although far from disgraced, in races at Ayr and Doncaster last month, since when Ten Clarets has, not surprisingly, been gelded. The dreaded snip could be the making of a horse with plenty of ability, especially racing on ground which should suit.
Recommendation: Ten Clarets - 9/2 with bet365
3:30pm Carlisle - Town Queen (Nap)
Irrespective of how our selection Ten Clarets performs in the previous race, I think the Karl Burke stable can take this three-year-old handicap run over 6f with handicap debutante TOWN QUEEN (Nap). After finishing second on her first three starts, including when beaten less than two lengths by last week’s York winner Machadadorp (rated 96) in a Chester maiden, the form of Town Queen’s first success at Southwell two months ago could hardly have worked out much better.
The well beaten second in that fillies’ novice stakes, Vale Of Clouds, won a Lingfield handicap last week by 6 lengths, while the third horse home, Star Velocity, is unbeaten on her two subsequent starts. Back in fourth place at Southwell was Ralph Beckett’s Planet Seeker, now rated 101 after finishing a close fourth in the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last month.
The fact that Sam James’ mount makes her handicap debut off a mark of just 75, suggests that Town Queen could have at least a stone in hand at the Cumbrian racecourse, providing the form of those races can be taken at face value. Nevertheless, I will be disappointed if the filly is not good enough to take advantage of such a potentially favourable mark.
Another horse making his handicap debut is David & Nicola Barron’s Tip Foster, successful in a Thirsk maiden on his second start but without the progressive scope of Town Queen.
Recommendation: Town Queen (Nap) - 11/8 with Ladbrokes
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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