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Another excellent week with 5 winning days out of 7 and 5 from 6 winning naps (one non-runner) resulting in a profit of +£16.83 over the seven days.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 1 Feburary: +£16.83
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£23.38
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£524.04
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 7 February
Saturday’s ITV Racing coverage features five races from Newbury and three from Warwick, culminating in the William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap), one of the most prestigious handicaps of the national hunt season, due to get underway at 3:20pm at the Berkshire racecourse.
1:00pm Newbury - Fantasy World
Previous winners Sober Glory and Kadastral are clearly useful novices, slight preference being for the former who came out well on top when the two horses met at Chepstow back in November. However, the pair have to concede 22lb and 18lb respectively to Nicky Henderson’s FANTASY WORLD, the four-year-old making his hurdling debut for the Seven Barrows stable.
Rated 103 on the flat when trained by Andrew Balding, the gelding was last seen winning the Listed Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot four months ago. While this 2m trip may be the bare minimum over hurdles for Nico De Boinville’s mount, Fantasy World can take full advantage of his light weight on ground that should suit.
Recommendation: Fantasy World - 5/2 with Paddy Power
1:15pm Warwick - Jubilee Alpha
Micky Bowen’s Flying Fortune won’t mind today’s testing conditions for this Listed mares’ hurdle, but is best watched on her first start since winning the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow back in October 2024.
After looking sure to win approaching the last in the Listed Unibet Mares’ Hurdle on her most recent start, Paul Nicholls’ JUBILEE ALPHA found precious little up the Sandown hill when clearly outstayed by Nurse Susan from the Skelton stable. On this less-demanding track, Lorcan Williams’ mount deserves another chance, as a repeat of her victory at Cheltenham in April when beating fellow rival La Pinsonniere would be more than good enough to open the mare’s account for the season.
Recommendation: Jubilee Alpha - Evens with William Hill
1:35pm Newbury - A Pai De Nom
Many of the 9 contenders for this Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier are quite exposed, one of the few exceptions being Dan Skelton’s A PAI DE NOM, last seen finishing third in Kempton’s Lanzarote Hurdle last month.
Winner of 3 of his 5 starts over hurdles, at Newton Abbot, Cheltenham and Leicester, the six-year-old should have no trouble staying this extended 3m trip and gets the vote over the Paul Nicholls-trained Below The Radar.
Recommendation: A Pai De Nom - 15/8 with bet365
1:50pm Warwick - Steel Ally
A field of only three for this Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase which looks to rest between the unbeaten pair of STEEL ALLY and Mambonumberfive, slight preference being for the former due to today’s testing conditions.
Sam Thomas’s charge has plenty of soft-ground form to his name over both hurdles and fences, including when running out an easy winner of the Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot just before Christmas. On the other hand, Ben Pauling’s runner has yet to win on anything other than good or good to soft.
Recommendation: Steel Ally - 6/5 with Coral
2:10pm Newbury - No Bet
In what should prove to be a straight match between Venetia Williams’ L’Homme Presse and Rebecca Curtis’s Welsh Grand National winner and Gold Cup hopeful Haiti Couleurs, this Grade 2 Denman Chase makes little appeal from a betting perspective, especially with the stable form of the former still a cause for concern.
Recommendation: No Bet
2:25pm Warwick - Fugitif (Each-Way)
An easy winner of this race 12 months ago, Dan Skelton’s Le Milos heads the betting once again following the gelding’s close second in the Unibet Stayers’ Veterans’ Chase Final at Sandown last month. 7lb claimer Harry Atkins takes over from Harry Skelton in the saddle today and the pair deserve their place at the head of the market. However, with several firms offering 3 places on this 7-runner contest, it could be worth taking a chance on a return to form for Richard Hobson’s FUGITIF (Each-Way).
Gavin Sheehan's mount has shown his best form on soft ground, including when winning Cheltenham’s December Gold Cup back in 2023. At the age of 11, Fugitif’s best days may be behind him, but the gelding is still capable of holding his own in this type of race following a recent wind op.
Recommendation: Fugitif (Each-Way) - 10/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:45pm Newbury - Libberty Hunter (w/o Lulamba)
The participation of Nicky Henderson’s Arkle favourite Lulamba in this Game Spirit Chase had been in doubt until Thursday’s final declaration stage, due to ground conditions which are unlikely to suit last month’s impressive Henry V111 Novices’ Chase winner. Rather than taking the odds about the Seven Barrows contender, I would rather back the Evan William-trained LIBBERTY HUNTER in the market without the favourite.
Runner-up to fellow rival Master Chewy in this race 12 months ago, Sean Bowen’s mount meets that horse on 3lb better terms today and on ground which won’t be a problem. Still in contention and going well when falling 3 out in last year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase, Libberty Hunter is sure to be doing his best work at the business end of this Grade 2 contest.
Recommendation: Libberty Hunter (w/o Lulamba) - 5/2 with bet365
3:20pm Newbury - Let It Rain (Nap)
After coming home the easy winner of a novices’ hurdle at Ludlow in December, connections of Un Sens A La Vie were quick to nominate this valuable handicap as the target for the unexposed six-year-old, a race the Twiston-Davies stable have won on three occasions during the last 12 years. While the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies is greatly respected, along with the Warren Greatrex-trained All In You, I have had this race in mind for Dan Skelton’s LET IT RAIN (Nap) since the lightly-raced mare made an eyecatching handicap debut at Ascot just before Christmas.
On her first start for 387 days, Let It Rain travelled supremely well in that valuable contest won narrowly by Dance And Glance from All In You, Harry Skelton’s mount just failing to get to grips with the first two horses home in the closing stages. We can expect to see a much sharper mare with that race under her belt, and providing she copes with today’s testing conditions, I expect the Skelton stable to add another £87k to their already impressive (over 3 million) prize money total for the season.
Recommendation: Let It Rain (Nap) - 11/4 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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