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Despite three winning naps out of six (5/2, 3/1 and 7/4) we ended the week with a loss of -£8.02, the result of some very poor picks on Wednesday and Thursday.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 20 September: -£8.02
P/L for the year to date: +£158.53
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£659.09
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 24 September
Ground on the firm side of good is expected for the first day of Newmarket's three-day Cambridgeshire meeting on Thursday afternoon.
1:50pm Newmarket - Bear On The Run
Five of the 10 contenders for this £60k Premier Fillies’ Handicap come from the classic generation, including the Daniel James Murphy-trained BEAR ON THE RUN, the only mount on the card for jockey Ben Coen. The daughter of Kodi Bear will be having just her fourth start to date, the first three coming in her native Ireland, starting with a promising 5th place on her debut in a Curragh maiden back in May.
That turned out to be a pretty strong race of its kind, with the winner Andab now rated 102, while the fourth horse home, Balantina, is now running off a mark of 110. After easily winning her maiden at Dundalk three months later, Bear On The Run followed up with another success on her handicap debut at the Curragh 7 days later.
Raised only 2lb to a mark of 89 for that win over today’s trip of 6f, connections clearly think they have a well-handicapped filly on their hands at the moment, and with plenty more improvement still to come, the Irish raider is fancied to take plenty of beating in this Class 2 contest.
Recommendation: Bear On The Run - 2/1 with Sky Bet
3:00pm Newmarket - Mezzo Forte (Nap)
While Brian Meehan’s Cilician and Tom Clover’s Doncaster nursery winner Fuel The Jet have shown a decent level of form, along with Eve Johnson Houghton’s Jimtrott and Notable Dream from the Marco Botti stable, I expect this Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes to go the way of one of the less exposed contenders, in particular the William Haggas-trained MEZZO FORTE (Nap).
After showing some promise following a slow start on his debut when 5th of 11 at York towards the end of June, the Wootton Bassett colt looked a different proposition when returning to the Knavesmire earlier this month, the well-supported 100/30 chance coming home unchallenged from a decent field of juveniles after making all of the running.
With jockey Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle for this informative 7f contest, this exciting prospect can continue his progression at the main expense of Richard Spencer’s Great Balls O’Fire, who justifies strong support when making a winning debut on Newmarket’s July course last month.
Recommendation: Mezzo Forte (Nap) - 9/2 with William Hill
This is Alan's Nap of the Day selection - see how it stacks up against Charlie McCann's pick too.
4:10pm Newmarket - Astracornus (Each-Way)
James Owen’s Charles Darnay and Zurna from the Julia & Shelley Birkett stable both go into this mile and a half handicap attempting to land a hat-trick of victories, preference being for the former who looks the most progressive of the pair.
While cases can be made for Andrew Balding’s King Of Berkshire under a 6lb penalty for his easy win at Windsor recently (due to go up 9lb in the future), and Ed Walker’s bottom weight La Peregrina, the vote goes to the David Menuisier-trained ASTRACORNUS (Each-Way), the mount of St Leger winning jockey Saffie Osborne.
The Golden Horn gelding won on his handicap debut at Nottingham in June from a previous winner, Kalokalo, who was successful again three weeks later, prior to losing out by a nose at Newbury on his next start. Stepping up in class for a valuable 1m 3f handicap at Glorious Goodwood on his most recent outing, Astracornus ran really well to finish a close fourth behind Godolphin’s Into The Light despite hanging badly to his right inside the final furlong.
With the runner-up Devil’s Peak going on to win at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting, and the fifth horse Pearl River an easy winner at Newbury on Saturday, the form of that race on the Sussex Downs stands up well. Off the same mark of 74, and over today’s extra furlong, a big run is expected from this lightly-raced three-year-old.
Recommendation: Astracornus (Each-Way) - 7/1 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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