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Five winning days out of six for the week ending Sunday, 27 September, and a profit of +£13.13.
Our each-way nap on Saturday, Erzidjan, just missed out on a place from an unfavourable draw. We did recommend 100/1 third Altareq as the best each-way alternative, without actually tipping Jim Goldie’s charge.
P/L for the week ending Sunday, 27 September: +£13.13
P/L for the year to date: +£171.66
P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
P/L since 1st September 2022: +£672.22
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 3 October
ITV Racing will be covering four races from Longchamp’s Qatar Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe card on Sunday afternoon, the other six races available to watch on Sky.
The feature race, with a final field of 16 runners, is due to get underway at 3:05pm.
1:47pm Longchamp - Corolla Point (Each-Way)
From a class point of view, this is just a moderate Prix de L’Abbaye. But what the Group 1 sprint lacks in quality it more than makes up for in its competitiveness. With the likes of top speedsters Bacio and Almeraq expected to head elsewhere, the race could provide a big payday for one of the lesser stables.
Of the 15 runners, five are trained ‘up north,’ including two for Galashields-based Katie Scott. Rated just 67 twelve months ago, her Havana Grey filly Naana’s Shadow has improved out of all recognition this season, Oisin Murphy’s mount now running off a mark of 109 following a comfortable victory in a Group 3 contest on this course last month.
Heading the betting at a best price 6/1, Naana’s Shadow looks sure to run a big race from her draw in stall 14. However, at the 18/1 currently available with bet365, I like the chances of another northern contender in the shape of Ed Bethell’s COROLLA POINT (Each-Way).
While this is a big step-up in class for the ex Godolphin-owned gelding, Daniel Tudhope’s mount has been running well in competitive sprint handicaps all season and more than capable of going close in this sub-standard renewal.
Recommendation: Corolla Point (Each-Way) - 18/1 with bet365 (4 places)
3:05pm Longchamp - Kalpana
Last year’s winner Daryz is currently no bigger than 7/4 to become the first horse to win back-to-back Arcs since Enable in 2017 and 2018. Francis-Henri Graffard’s son of Sea The Stars is not in the same class as the last two dual winners, the other being Treve in 2013 and 2014. Mickael Barzalona’s mount only managed to finish a well-beaten third behind Ombudsman in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot earlier in the year.
Seven lengths behind Daryz when finishing 7th in last year’s soft-ground Arc was Andrew Balding’s KALPANA. The daughter of Study Of Man has hardly put a foot wrong since then however, winning four of her five starts, the one defeat coming in Royal Ascot’s Hardwicke Stakes when just touched-off by Marco Botti’s Giavellotto.
I think Kalpana’s length and a half victory over Calandagan in Ascot’s King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes sets a clear standard for today’s race. With a decent draw in stall 6, and on ground that is sure to suit Colin Keane’s mount, this fabulous mare is fancied to repeat the feat of the great Mill Reef, winner of the race for Kingsclere trainer Ian Balding back in 1971.
Recommendation: Kalpana - 11/2 with Coral
3:50pm Longchamp - Aventure (Nap)
Runner-up to Bluestocking in the Arc of two years ago before finishing a well-beaten 11th 12 months ago, connections of the Sea The Stars mare AVENTURE (Nap) have decided to bypass the main event this year in favour of the Group 1 Prix de L’Opera Longines over a mile and a quarter.
Maxime Guyon’s mount has won 8 of her 17 starts to date, 3 of which have come on this course over distances ranging from 1m 2f to 1m 4f. The first horse to beat Ballydoyle’s Diamond Necklace when putting two lengths between herself and the four-time Group 1 winner in Deauville’s Prix Jean et Louis Romanet in August, Aventure is expected to prove too good for French Oaks runner-up Pink Panthera and Ballydoyle’s Precise.
Recommendation: Aventure (Nap) - 11/8 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on X for more racing insight.
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