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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 18 July
Saturday’s ITV Racing coverage features four races from Newbury, two from Market Rasen and one from Ripon.
1:55pm Newbury - Persica (Nap)
The three-year-olds get a handy 9lb weight for age in this mile and a quarter Listed contest, the two contenders from the classic generation, Godolphin’s Al Zanati and the Brian Meehan-trained Oceans Four, both capable of big runs against the quartet of older rivals.
Despite now being on a losing run of 8, this looks an ideal opportunity for Richard Hannon’s PERSICA (Nap) to get his head in front for the first time since winning the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom last year. The New Bay gelding has been running well in defeat this season, most recently when beaten just under two lengths by Roger Varian’s promising Sallaal at Sandown earlier this month.
Recommendation: Persica (Nap) - 7/4 with William Hill
2:10pm Market Rasen - Louis Veron
Current odds of just 2/1 may look very short about champion trainer Dan Skelton’s LOUIS VERON for this £50k Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle. However, time may show that the Karaktar gelding has been let in lightly on his handicap debut off an opening mark of 124.
Harry Skelton’s mount has hardly broken sweat in winning races at Warwick and Stratford on his last two starts, the unexposed five-year-old improving significantly with each of his four outings to date. At a double-figure price, and with champion jockey Sean Bowen booked to ride, bottom weight High Fibre makes some appeal (each-way) on his second start for trainer James Owen, the first coming on the Flat at York last week when third in an apprentice handicap.
Recommendation: Louis Veron - 2/1 with Coral
2:25pm Newbury - Bahadur (Each-Way)
With most bookmakers offering 3 places on this extended 2m handicap, I will be disappointed if Sean Woods’ BAHADUR (Each-Way) is not capable of making the frame at the very least following his excellent run when finishing 5th of 20 behind Align The Stars in Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate on his most recent start.
Far from disgraced when possibly finding the 2m 4f trip of the Ascot Stakes a step too far on his penultimate start, the mount of William Buick ticks plenty of boxes in this 7-runner handicap and gets the vote over Roger Varian’s Ride The Thunder, who finished one place behind Bahadur at Gosforth Park.
Recommendation: Bahadur (Each-Way) - 6/1 with Sky Bet (3 places)
2:45pm Market Rasen - Soul Icon (Each-Way)
Trainer Peter Bowen won this valuable Summer Plate on no less than 8 occasions since its inauguration back in 1995. With the stable now in the hands of son Mickey, they are three-handed in this year’s renewal, the first-string looking to be that of Queensbury Boy, the mount of James Bowen, although champion jockey Sean Bowen takes the ride on stablemate Pour Les Filles (5lb claimer Shane Fenelon partners King Roly).
All three contenders will have been primed for this early season target, although the betting is headed by the Skelton runner Kingston Narcissus. In an open race, the vote goes to Keiran Burke’s SOUL ICON (Each-Way), the neck runner-up to Sure Touch in this race 2 years ago. The winning jockey on that occasion, Harry Cobden, takes the ride on the selection for just the third time, the pair successful in Kempton Park’s Desert Orchid Chase at the Christmas meeting in 2024.
The J P McManus-retained rider has won this race for the last three years and was superb aboard Gavin Cromwell’s Ballysax Hank 12 months ago, one of the rides of the season for me. A fine fifth in Kempton’s Ladbrokes Trophy back in February off a 2lb higher mark, Soul Icon, like several of his rivals, has clearly been primed with today's race in mind.
Recommendation: Soul Icon (Each-Way) - 7/1 with Betfred (4 places)
3:02pm Newbury - Soldier’s Tree
Third and 6th respectively behind Double Rush in Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes last month, I see no reason why William Haggas’s Binhareer should reverse that form on 3lb worse terms with James Owen’s SOLDIER'S TREE, who finished two and a quarter lengths ahead of Tom Marquand’s mount.
This will be just the third run for Owen since the son of Soldier’s Call left the Matthew Tynan stable in Ireland, the first when going down by less than a length to subsequent Queen Elizabeth 11 Jubilee Stakes winner Almeraq in a Listed race at Salisbury. Sean Levey’s mount may have most to fear from the one three-year-old in the race, Clive Cox’s Song Of The Clyde.
Recommendation: Soldier’s Tree - 11/4 with William Hill
3:15pm Ripon - Per Contra (Each-Way)
Top weight Spioradalta has won on his last 4 visits to the ‘garden racecourse,’ all over the shorter trip of 1m 2f. Paul Mulrennan’s mount will do well to keep the winning run going off today’s revised mark of 90. Ripon’s undulations don’t suit all horses, early favourite Elsass last of 9 on his only previous visit to the course, although Charlie Johnston’s charge has won three races since then.
James Fanshawe’s Salamanca City could go well if handling the track, but last year’s runner-up PER CONTRA (Each-Way) looks overpriced at the 12/1 currently available with bet365. The Tim Easterby-trained five-year-old was out of his depth when finishing down the field in last Saturday’s John Smith’s Cup at York, but would have every chance if in the same kind of form as when fourth on the Knavesmire last month.
Recommendation: Per Contra (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:37pm Newbury - Sky Secret (Each-Way)
With a maximum field of 25 for this £275k Weatherbys Super Sprint, the draw is likely to play a part in the final outcome. Richard Hughes’ Bint Archange (drawn 20) heads the betting at a best price 4/1 as I write, odds which make little appeal about a horse who failed to beat a single rival in the 27-runner Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, although the filly did win a Listed race at Sandown earlier in the month.
I would rather side with the Clive Cox-trained SKY SECRET (Each-Way), the mount of jockey P J McDonald and with a middle draw in stall 14. The stable have an excellent record in these valuable sales races and they obviously rate the A’Ali colt, who was sent off favourite for both of his starts to date.
The each-way selection looked very green when finishing fourth on his debut at Leicester in April before putting that experience to good use when making all of the running for an easy success on that course two weeks later. At odds of 8/1 and with 5 places available, Sky Secret gets the each-way vote.
Recommendation: Sky Secret (Each-Way) - 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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