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Despite winners at 8/1 and 7/4 on Saturday, a minor loss of -£3.50 on the week, mainly down to blank days on Wednesday and Thursday.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 29 March: -£3.50
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- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£569.26
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 4 April
ITV Racing will be covering nine races on Easter Saturday afternoon, five from the Scottish track at Musselburgh and four from Haydock Park.
The ground for Musselburgh’s Flat card is currently described as good, while Haydock’s jumps meeting is good to soft, good in places.
1:25pm Musselburgh - Strength Of Spirit
A tentative vote goes to Karl Burke’s STRENGTH OF SPIRIT for this three-year-old one mile handicap, a race best watched with a view to the future. Three and a half lengths behind Charlie Johnston’s Vincenzo Peruggia in a Beverley maiden last summer, Sam James’ mount is due to meet that horse on 10lb better terms today.
The Ulysses gelding ended his two-year-old campaign with a comfortable victory in a Newbury nursery and looks potentially well-treated off a mark of 81 on his reappearance.
Recommendation: Strength Of Spirit - 4/1 with Paddy Power
1:55pm Musselburgh - Midnight Gun (Nap)
Hamad Al Jehani’s last two runners in Britain, Defence Minister at Kempton and Fine Interview at Doncaster, both landed gambles last week. The Newmarket trainer is represented by Wathnan’s MIDNIGHT GUN (Nap) in this £50k seven furlong handicap and the grey son of Kingman is expected to take plenty of beating in the hands of jockey James Doyle.
Yet to open his account for connections since leaving Ed Walker’s stable a couple of years ago, the five year-old has hardly disappointed courtesy of several near misses, along with finishing 6th of 22 as the 9/2 market leader in last year’s Lincoln. Losing out by a nose to James Owen’s Rogue Diplomat at Doncaster on his most recent start in this country (the winner beaten a nose in last week’s Lincoln), Midnight Gun can go one better, granted a clear run.
Recommendation: Midnight Gun (Nap) - 3/1 with Coral
2:12pm Haydock - Williethebuilder (Each-Way)
The betting is likely to prove the best guide to the chances of Dan Skelton’s lightly-raced Ice In The Veins regarding the possible outcome of this Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final, the six-year-old clearly capable of better than he has shown on his two starts since having wind surgery.
Anthony Honeyballs’ Dance And Glance will appreciate today’s ground as opposed to the heavy conditions when finishing a tailed-off fifth in Newbury’s valuable William Hill Hurdle last time. However, I expect a big run from the Christian Williams-trained top weight WILLIETHEBUILDER (Each-Way), the mount of talented 5lb claimer Toby McCain-Mitchell.
After winning a couple of races at Kempton earlier in the season, the seven-year-old was far from disgraced in finishing fourth in the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh on the final day of last year. Eighteenth in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time, Williethebuilder’s chance was not helped when hampered by a faller at the fourth hurdle; the each-way selection will be more at home in this Class 2 contest.
Recommendation: Williethebuilder (Each-Way) - 9/1 BoyleSports (4 places)
2:30pm Musselburgh - Al Qaareem
Not a race which makes little appeal from a betting perspective. Rated between 7lb and 30lb higher than his 5 rivals, Karl Burke’s stable favourite AL QAAREEM should prove too good for the opposition on his first start of the new campaign.
The seven-year-old son of Awtaad has won 12 of his 35 starts to date, 9 in Stakes races, four in Group 3 company and one at Group 2 level. Clifford Lee’s mount should be up to conceding the weight to his rivals, best of which is probably Andrew Balding’s Mount Atlas.
Recommendation: Al Qaareem - 5/6 with William Hill
2:46pm Haydock - Jakar Du Moulin
This Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final may well concern champion trainers old and new in Paul Nicholls and heir apparent Dan Skelton. The latter is represented by the improving Blue Carpet, who ran out the comfortable winner of a 3m qualifier at Wetherby five weeks ago. The Ditcheat stable relies on the lightly-raced seven-year-old JAKAR DU MOULIN, who gets the narrow vote in the hands of jockey Harry Cobden.
The well-regarded son of Kapgarde has started to fulfil his potential this season, most recently when coming clear of his six rivals in a Doncaster qualifier last month. I think there is a lot more to come from Jakar Du Moulin, who has the potential to improve upon his current mark of 123.
Recommendation: Jakar Du Moulin - 4/1 with William Hill
3:05pm Musselburgh - Wise Eagle (Each-Way)
Fourth in this race 12 months ago off a mark of 105 when failing to get the clearest of runs, the Adam Nicol-trained WISE EAGLE (Each-Way), beaten a little over a length, is fancied to improve upon that effort off an 8lb lower mark, and from a stable in cracking form at the moment.
Billy Garritty’s mount was last seen finishing a creditable third in Kelso’s valuable Morebattle Hurdle five weeks ago, and despite having to concede weight to his 12 rivals in this substandard 1m 6f Queen’s Cup, the nine-year-old gets the vote ahead of Karl Burke’s Gentle Warrior and Dan Skelton’s Gambino, third behind Constitution Hill at Southwell on his second Flat start to date.
Recommendation: Wise Eagle (Each-Way) - 8/1 with Paddy Power (4 places)
3:20pm Haydock - Triple Trade & The Widdow Maker
This Unibet Middle Distance Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Series Final) has attracted a field of 17, many of which have become household names over the last few seasons. In a race where it is easy to make a case out for just about all of the runners, my two against the field are the Joe Tizzard-trained contenders, TRIPLE TRADE and THE WIDDOW MAKER.
The former won a qualifier for this at Sandown at the beginning of the year and Brendan Powell’s mount won off a higher mark than this in the past. The Widdow Maker will be having just his third run of the season, the first when beaten just over four lengths by Dan Skelton’s Be Aware at Stratford in October. In receipt of plenty of weight from his 16 rivals, the 12-year-old goes into the race a fresh horse and is fancied to outrun his current odds of 16/1.
Recommendations: Triple Trade - 16/1 with bet365 & The Widdow Maker - 16/1 with William Hill
3:42pm Musselburgh - Jer Batt (Each-Way)
Third in this race 12 months ago when finishing just a length behind subsequent Group 1 winner American Affair when in receipt of just 2lb, the David & Nicola Barron-trained JER BATT (Each-Way) will attempt to improve upon that excellent effort in this £70k Scottish Sprint Cup, the six-year-old now racing off a mark of only 85, the gelding’s lowest for three years.
While failing to trouble the judge in 9 starts in 2025, the son of Dragon Pulse ran well in defeat on several occasions, after which Jer Batt had wind surgery towards the end of the year. The booking of jockey Saffie Osborne certainly takes the eye. Stall 9 looks a decent draw for a horse who has clearly been targeted at this race for some time.
Recommendation: Jer Batt (Each-Way) - 6/1 with bet365 (4 places)
3:55pm Haydock - Heads Or Harps
A modest two and a half mile handicap chase to end ITV’s Easter Saturday horse racing coverage. Donald McCain's Count Adhemar will be having just his fourth start over fences and open to plenty of improvement. However, I'm not convinced Theo Gillard’s mount will appreciate today's step-up in trip.
It has to be said that the Russell/Scudamore-trained HEADS OR HARPS has been a bit disappointing since easily winning at Ayr 13 months ago. Derek Fox's mount was no match for stablemate Walking On A Dream on that course last month, but was staying on nicely at the end and is worth another chance in a race which shouldn't take too much winning.
Recommendation: Heads Or Harps - 5/1 with Paddy Power
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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