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Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 29 April
The highlight on day two of the Punchestown Festival is the Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup at 6:05pm. The 3m 1f Group 1 contest features a fascinating rematch between the winners of the Irish and Cheltenham Gold Cups.
2:13pm Pontefract - Infraad
The four-year-old Sea Lantern faces a stiff task in attempting to concede 24lb to his five younger rivals in this 1m 2f novice contest, the Sea The Stars gelding having his first start for trainer Brian Ellison since leaving the Irish stable of Jack Davison recently. The Roscommon maiden winner is best watched with a view to the future and when switched to handicaps.
Karl Burke’s Asia Force was no match for Godolphin’s Shabab Al Ahli on his second career start, both on an artificial surface earlier in the year, but should be winning before too long, while both John & Thady Gosden’s Leighton and Seb Spencer's Night Wolf showed promise as juveniles, in particular the latter when in the care of John & Sean Quinn, the son of Kodi Beat beaten just over two lengths in York’s valuable Convivial Maiden Stakes at the Ebor meeting behind horses now rated 96, 100, 85 and 93.
The result of that race may have flattered Dale Swift’s mount however, who could only finish third in a Redcar maiden on his only other start at two. The betting is likely to prove the best guide to the chances of Night Wolf on his first start for six months. One horse who will not fail through a lack of fitness is the William Haggas-trained INFRAAD, who could not justify his short odds when only third of the 9 runners at Nottingham three weeks ago.
Tom Marquand’s mount pulled far too hard in the early stages of the 1m 2f contest, the Ghaiyyath colt taking a narrow lead 2 out only to weaken inside the final furlong. With that first run of the season under his belt, and from a stable with 3 winners from their last 5 runners, Infraad is fancied to come out on top in a race which is likely to provide plenty of clues with a view to the rest of the season.
Recommendation: Infraad - 2/1 with Ladbrokes
3:58pm Pontefract - Mystical Storm
David O’Meara is responsible for both top weight Veblen Good and Sixtygeesbaby in this 6f sprint handicap, the most interesting being the former, who finished 4th in York’s valuable Macmillan Sprint Handicap last June before ending the season with unplaced efforts in a Deauville Listed race and when failing to get a clear run in a Classified Stakes at Ascot.
The mount of 5lb claimer Cian Horgan is worth noting for any market confidence on his first start since leaving the Karl Burke stable. However, this is likely to be a fact-finding mission for connections of the Starspangledbanner gelding.
I am more interested in the two horses at the foot of the handicap, Modern Times from the Tim Easterby stable and Julie Camacho’s MYSTICAL STORM, with slight preference for the latter. Modern Times made an encouraging reappearance when fifth of 16 in a 6f Redcar handicap 13 days ago despite David Allen’s mount hanging to his right inside the closing stages.
While Mystical Storm will be having his first outing since failing to act on heavy ground at Doncaster back in October, the son of Harry Angel has a good record fresh and begins his four-year-old campaign on a very attractive mark of 72 based on his close fourth in a competitive York handicap last summer. Gelded towards the end of last year, Ryan Sexton’s mount makes plenty of appeal off today’s potentially attractive mark.
Recommendation: Mystical Storm - 14/1 with Ladbrokes
5:25pm Punchestown - Conyers Hill (Each-Way)
Top trainers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott are well represented in this €100,000 Grade 3 handicap chase, the former with 5 runners as opposed to the latters’ three. King Alexander may prove best of the Closutton quintet, while De Capo is the choice of Cullentra’s number one jockey Jack Kennedy. Trainer Paul Nolan has just the one contender in the Walk In The Park eight-year-old CONYERS HILL (Each-Way), who gets the vote in an open race.
Sean Flanagan’s mount found the combination of the 3m 1f trip and heavy ground against him when 5th of 18 (last to finish) in Gowran Park’s Thyestes Chase on his most recent start back in January. The gelding is better judged on his run at Cheltenham’s November meeting when fourth behind the well handicapped Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Less than three lengths behind runner-up Vincenzo at Prestbury Park, when running off the same mark as the winner, Conyers Hill must have every chance of taking this valuable contest with a similar effort off today's revised rating of 133.
Recommendation: Conyers Hill (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (4 places)
6:05pm Punchestown - Gaelic Warrior (Nap)
A cracking renewal of this Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup featuring the best two staying chasers in training, Irish Gold Cup winner Fact To File and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner GAELIC WARRIOR (Nap), the former a non-runner at Prestbury Park due to the drying ground. With today's going described as yielding, there should be no complaints on that score.
The score stands at one all between the two horses this season, Paul Townsend’s mount coming out on top by a neck in the John Durkan on this course in November before Fact To File reversed the form emphatically when five lengths separated the pair in the Irish Gold Cup at the DRF. In between those two races, a below-par Fact Or File could never get competitive behind The Jukebox Man, Banbridge, Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie in Kempton’s King George on Boxing Day.
I thought Gaelic Warrior’s victory at Cheltenham was one of the best performances I have seen by a staying chaser in recent years. If Townsend can settle his mount as well as he did in the Gold Cup, I expect the eight-year-old to come out on top. Despite Grangeclare West and Inothewayurthinkin both being Grade 1 performers, this looks to be a straight match between the big two in a race to savour.
Recommendation: Gaelic Warrior (Nap) - 5/4 with Betfred
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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