Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to Ffos Las on Thursday for his best bet of the day
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, 8 January
Hopefully, Thursday’s jumps cards at Taunton and Ffos Las will go ahead as planned for the first turf action in a week disrupted by the current cold spell.
1:10pm Ffos Las - Bobby’s Nelson (Nap)
Trainer Harry Derham is responsible for two of the 13 contenders for this two and a half mile maiden hurdle, the stable’s first string looking to be Paul O’Brien’s mount Jackpot Cauveliere, fourth of 6 in a novices hurdle on his only start over the smaller obstacles at Warwick in November. While the seven-year-old should improve for that run, the three horses to concentrate on are the Dan Skelton-trained Giantsgrave, Off The Jury from the Mickey Bowen stable and Sean Houlihan’s mount BOBBY'S NELSON (Nap).
Strong cases can be made for the first two, in particular Off The Jury who had some decent form when trained by Alan King last year and a creditable runner-up on his second start for Bowen at Ascot last month. I am keen on the chances of the Hobbs/White-trained Bobby’s Nelson however, narrowly beaten on both of his outings over hurdles to date behind decent novices in Our Boy Stan and Baron Noir.
Today’s ground conditions (soft, heavy in places) will hold no fears for the seven-year-old, who can open his account over the smaller obstacles at the third attempt.
Recommendation: Bobby’s Nelson (Nap) - 7/2 with bet365
2:30pm Taunton - Juggernaut
Alan King’s Irish Chorus won at the second time of asking over fences when winning a mares’ handicap at Leicester last month. That was a pretty weak affair however and the mount of Tom Bellamy has a tendency to jump out to her left. Joe Tickle’s top weight Hypotenus is likely to take the field along, as was the case when doing too much from the front at Ludlow last time, the seven-year-old weakening to finish last of the seven finishers.
With less forceful tactics, Taylor Fisher’s mount could go close in this two mile novices’ handicap. However, the Anthony Honeyball stable has been in good form of late and this looks a good opportunity for his JUGGERNAUT, a dual winner over hurdles, to open his account over fences at the 5th attempt.
The gelding was a beaten favourite on his first three outings over fences but was in the progress of running a big race at Wincanton last time when badly hampered by a faller 3 out. The mount of Sam Twiston-Davies is more than capable of winning a race of this nature off a mark of 103 and looks the one to beat, granted a trouble-free passage that is.
Recommendation: Juggernaut - 9/4 with bet365
3:30pm Taunton - Stumps Or Slips (Each-Way)
With a rating of 148, at least 20lb higher than any of his 8 rivals, victory in this hunters chase should prove something of a formality for Dan Skelton's Unexpected Party, the mount of Miss Heidi Palin second behind Jazzy Matty in last season’s Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival.
However, now at the age of 11 and at the veteran stage, this one-time talented chaser, pulled-up at Kelso on his most recent start last month, is worth taking on with the Edward Walker-trained STUMPS OR SLIPS (Each-Way), the mount of decent amateur Zac Baker.
Trained by Olly Murphy until just recently, the nine-year-old won four races last summer, the first three over fences followed by a novices’ hurdle at Worcester. Second in a four-runner novices’ hurdle at Market Rasen on his most recent start in November, when given a lot to do by rider Sean Bowen, Stumps Or Slips has two stone to find with the favourite on ratings but is fancied to make the frame at the very least on ground that should suit. A Jet Of Our Own, 5th in the Aintree Foxhunters at the Grand National meeting, is the other one to consider.
Recommendation: Stumps Or Slips (Each-Way) - 15/2 with bet365 (3 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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