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Only another 359 days to the Cheltenham Festival, last week’s four days at Prestbury Park once again proving memorable for both the right and wrong reasons. The playground spat between Nico de Boinville and amateur Declan Queally was the headline act in the embarrassment stakes, while the less said about a plethora of farcical starts the better.
The most memorable moments, however, were of the equine variety, in particular Gaelic Warrior’s silky-smooth Gold Cup victory, while on a personal level, Il Etait Temps produced the Champion Chase performance I was both expecting and hoping for in equal measures. With those memories fresh in the mind, 359 days seems a very long time to wait for the next instalment. Never mind, only a couple of weeks before the start of the turf flat season?
From a betting perspective, Wednesday was the undoubted highlight, with winners at 5/1, 15/2 and 11/1. It was a case of what might have been following the fall (stumble) of The Yellow Clay three-out in the BetMGM Gold Cup when coming to join eventual (easy) winner Jingko Blue. The possible result of my each-way accumulator on the four is a mystery that will forever remain a matter of conjecture. After going into Thursday with a profit of over £25, we managed to give most of it back, Cheltenham Festival week ending with a profit of +£8.70.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 15 March: +£8.70
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£78.87
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£579.53
Alan Kelly's Tips - Wednesday, 18 March
Wednesday’s jumps action comes from the meetings at Huntingdon and Hereford, with ground on the soft side of good expected at both venues.
3:00pm Hereford - After Many Days
A pretty desperate mares’ novices’ handicap hurdle, but a good opportunity for the Henry Daly-trained AFTER MANY DAYS to finally live up to her name by recording a first victory since making her debut over the smaller obstacles when finishing fourth in a maiden hurdle at Huntingdon over two years ago.
The daughter of Getaway has taken the runner-up spot in three of her last four starts, the first when caught by Mel Rowley’s My Virtue turning for home over today’s course and distance five months ago. Beaten just under two lengths by Olly Murphy’s Natus Vincere on her most recent start last month, Sam Twiston-Davies’ mount only needs to repeat that level of form to finally get her head in front.
Kayley Woollacott’s top weight Lydeard Girl was no match for easy winner Springtime Legend on this course last month but should improve for that first run in handicap company, while Jlow, one of two runners for trainer Ryan Potter has each-way claims.
Recommendation: After Many Days - 3/1 with bet365
4:15pm Huntingdon - Ikigai Star
Trainer James Owen has strong hand in this Class 5 handicap hurdle courtesy of last week’s 10 length course winner Carlton, who will be fancied by many to follow-up under a 7lb penalty, while stablemate Snapius now runs off a mark 5lb lower than when winning at Lingfield 15 months ago.
Emma Lavelle’s Star Of Diamonds has been a big disappointment for the stable, only making the frame on one occasion despite having been sent off at odds of 5/1 or shorter on all 7 starts for Lavelle. Jonathan Burke’s mount is clearly thought capable of better and is worth noting for any support once again with cheekpieces fitted for the first time.
However, the Charlie Longsdon stable is in decent form at the moment and I think his Sea The Stars gelding IKIGAI STAR has a good chance of adding to his three victories from 14 starts over hurdles. Two of those wins came on this course with today’s rider Lilly Pinchin in the saddle, the first when winning his maiden in May of 2024 before repeating the feat 12 months later off a mark of 101.
Up with the leaders until losing all chance following a bad mistake 3 out on his penultimate start at Market Rasen, Ikigai Star will be having his first outing for 5 months and after having a wind op. If fit enough on his reappearance, the six-year-old is fancied to make it 3 from 3 on the course.
Recommendation: Ikigai Star - 7/1 with bet365
4:45pm Huntingdon - Livy’s Lad (Nap)
An easy winner on his chasing debut four months ago, and first start for trainer Nick Gifford since leaving the stable of Tim Vaughan, the lightly raced Kayf Tara gelding LIVY'S LAD (Nap) is fancied to get back to winning ways after failing to follow-up that Southwell victory when only managing to finish third on that course 18 days later.
The mount of James Davies only had to be pushed out to record that first success, on the back of which the six-year-old was sent off at odds of 4/6 to repeat the performance off a 5lb higher mark. All looked to be going according to plan when Livy’s Lad took the lead with four to jump, only for the horse to weaken into third place after making a mistake at the final fence.
Found to have made a respiratory noise during the race, the selection has been given plenty of time to recover, and off the same mark of 85, can overturn the form of that race with the winner Flash In The Park on slightly better terms. David Dennis’s Hobie would have a chance based on his two Worcester victories of last autumn, but Tom Bellamy’s mount has been beaten a total of 76 lengths on his last two starts.
Recommendation: Livy’s Lad (Nap) - 13/8 with bet365
Grand National (Antepost) - Final Orders (Each-Way)
With less than a month to go before the 2026 renewal of Aintree’s Randox Grand National, a good time to try and pinpoint a bit of early value in the ante-post market for the world’s most famous steeplechase. At the 50/1 currently available with William Hill about Gavin Cromwell’s Final Orders, I think last week’s Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner is way overpriced for the extended 4m 2f test of jumping and stamina.
Currently standing at number 40 in the pecking-order and with a maximum permitted field of 34, the 10-year-old is not guaranteed his place, but with several doubtful runners higher up in the handicap I will be surprised if the Camelot gelding ends up as one of the reserves. A greater doubt revolves around possible ground conditions at the Merseyside racecourse on April 11th, as Final Orders needs decent going to produce his best form.
With current top weight I Am Maximus (winner in 2024) a certain runner barring accidents, Final Orders has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 5lb. Five of the first 12 winners of the race in the 21st century were 10-year-olds, and while Cheltenham's cross country chase has only been going since 2005, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll won that unique three miles five and a half furlong contest in both of the years he was victorious at Aintree.
Of Final Orders’ seven successes over fences, five came over distances ranging from two to three miles, showing the kind of versatility needed to win a race requiring both pace and stamina in equal measures (also a winner over 1m 4f on the flat). If conditions are similar at Aintree to those of last week (good to soft), a reproduction of his comfortable victory over favourite Favori De Champdou would give the selection a much better chance of emulating Tiger Roll than his current odds would indicate.
Recommendation: Final Orders (Each-Way) - 50/1 with Unibet (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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