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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 4 July
Saturday's ITV races comprise four races from Sandown Park and three from Newmarket, the latter transferred from Haydock Park. The feature race of the day is the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, the Group 1 contest due to get underway at 3:35pm.
1:50pm Sandown - Getreadytorumble (Each-Way)
The three highest rated contenders for this Group 3 Listed race run over the minimum trip are Asfoora (115), Rumstar (110) and Words Of Truth (110), the first two last seen finishing 7th and 25th respectively in Royal Ascot’s King Charles 111 Stakes. At the 11/1 currently available with bet365, I would rather back the horse who finished 21st in that race, the Jack Channon-trained Getreadytorumble (each-way).
The grey son of Rumble Inthejungle lost all chance at the start of that Group 1 contest by rearing up leaving the stalls, losing several lengths in the process. Drawn 10 of 10, I expect to see Callum Rodrigez’ mount finishing fast and late on the outside in a race which could be run to suit.
Recommendation: Getreadytorumble (Each-Way) - 11/1 with bet365 (3 places)
2:05pm Newmarket - Arc Ole Ole
From stall 20, the Dylan Cunha-trained ARC OLE OLE did extremely well to finish as close as fifth, beaten just over three lengths in Royal Ascot’s King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) at the royal meeting last month. A rise of 4lb to a mark of 89 looks more than fair for the Study Of Man colt, who had previously landed a hat-trick of wins courtesy of successes at Bath, Doncaster and York.
The extra two furlongs of this Class 2 £100k handicap should prove ideal for the mount of Luke Morris, who is expected to get continue his improvement with a victory over Alan King’s bottom weight Heroics, fourth behind the selection at York and now 12lb better off for the 7 lengths which separated the pair.
Recommendation: Arc Ole Ole - 15/8 with Coral
2:25pm Sandown - Tribal Chief & Classic
An excellent renewal of this £120k Coral challenge featuring the 3rd, 4th and 5th horses home in last month's Royal Hunt Cup. In a race dominated by those horses drawn high, Indalo’s 3rd place finish can be marked up from his berth in stall 8. Roger Varian’s charge deserves his place at the head of the market following that excellent effort, but my two against the field are Richard Hannon’s Classic and Tribal Chief from the David Menuisier stable.
Pat Dobbs’ mount has been in tremendous form this season, first of all when finishing a close second in the 24-runner Newbury Spring Cup, before going one better on that course a month later, beating Indalo by a neck off level weights. Despite finishing a creditable 9th in the Hunt Cup, the race didn’t pan out as planned for the six-year-old, who is fancied to run a big race.
Tribal Chief has not been seen since finishing 3rd in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup earlier in the season, looking a bit unlucky on both occasions. Racing off the same mark of 93, and in receipt of weight from the majority of his rivals, Saffie Osborne’s mount can go close for a stable in excellent form.
Recommendations: Tribal Chief - 4/1 with Betfred & Classic - 12/1 with bet365
2:40pm Newmarket - Tiffany
It's hard to look beyond Sir Mark Prescott’s TIFFANY for the most likely winner of this Group 2 Lancashire Oaks. While the daughter of Farhh is now on a losing run of 5, four of those defeats came courtesy of excellent placed efforts in Group 1’s. Beaten a short neck on her reappearance in a Listed race at Chantilly last month, Luke Morris’s mount is sure to be spot-on for this race transferred from Haydock Park.
For those looking for an each-way alternative to the favourite, Brian Meehan’s Miss Justice can make the frame at the 10/1 currently available with Paddy Power.
Recommendation: Tiffany - Evens with William Hill
3:00pm Sandown - Estissa (Each-Way)
I don’t think there is a lot between the three horses at the head of the market for this Listed Coral Distaff, Pacific Mission, Sacred Ground and Act Of Kindness, in which case it could be worth siding with James Fanshawe’s lightly-raced daughter of Dubawi, ESTISSA (Each-Way).
This will be the first run on turf for the mount of champion jockey Oisin Murphy who, despite the winning margin of only a head, ran out a cosy winner of a competitive fillies’ handicap at Wolverhampton on her most recent start. While this is a big step-up in class for Estissa, the filly has plenty more improvement to come and can outrun her current odds of 14/1.
Recommendation: Estissa (Each-Way) - 14/1 with bet365 (3 places)
3:15pm Newmarket - Elsass
It may be foolish to oppose a horse who may well turn out to be better than a handicapper in William Haggas’s impressive York scorer at the Dante meeting in the unexposed Lope De Vega colt Klassleader, but I will take Tom Marquand’s mount on with Charlie Johnston’s ELSASS, who appears to have improved significantly since being gelded towards the back of last year.
The son of Sottsass has won both of his starts this season without being hard pressed and may still be well ahead of the handicapper off a revised mark of 88. Jockey Hector Crouch takes the mount on Elsass for a stable which has won three of the last 12 renewals.
Recommendation: Elsass - 11/2 with William Hill
3:35pm Sandown - Constitution River (Nap)
I thought Donnacha O’Brien’s A Boy Named Susie did well to finish fourth in the French Derby behind fellow rivals Constitution River and Hawk Mountain after failing to get anything like a clear run. Oisin Murphy’s mount would have made some appeal (each-way) for today’s feature race if there had been 8 runners, but I expect the form of the Prix Du Jockey Club to be confirmed with yet another Group 1 victory for Ballydoyle.
If there is an outstanding horse among this season’s middle-distance three-year-olds, it is likely to be Aidan O’Brien’s Wootton Bassett colt CONSTITUTION RIVER (Nap). Following a short head defeat at the hands of Godolphin’s Distant Storm (placed in both Guineas at Newmarket and the Curragh) on his racecourse debut at headquarters, Ryan Moore’s mount is now unbeaten in four subsequent starts.
Particularly impressive in winning the Dee Stakes at Chester, Constitution River showed he can battle when wearing down stablemate Hawk Mountain inside the final furlong at Chantilly. In receipt of a handy 10lb from the year older pair of Gethin and Saddadd, I expect this historic race to go to the classic generation.
Recommendation: Constitution River (Nap) - 11/10 with William Hill
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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