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Another excellent week with 5 winning days out of 7 and 5 from 6 winning naps (one non-runner) resulting in a profit of +£16.83 over the seven days.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 1 Feburary: +£16.83
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- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£524.04
Alan Kelly's Tips - Friday, 6 February
With the abandonment of waterlogged Sandown Park, the meeting at Bangor-On Dee will provide the only jumps action on Friday afternoon, the ground currently described as soft, heavy in places and with the prospect of snow showers throughout the day.
Newcastle’s 9-race evening all-weather card will be shown in full on ITV Racing.
1:55pm Bangor - Rosscahil & Planned Paradise
Stamina will be at a premium regarding the outcome of this North Wales National, the field of 13 headed by the Twiston-Davies’ novice ROSSCAHIL, who will be having just his second outing over fences. Heavily supported to win on his debut at Ffos Las in October, the dual hurdle winner was pulled-up after making a bad mistake at the 8th fence when racing up with the pace.
The Irish point-to-point winner has always looked the type to make his mark over fences, especially when racing over an extreme trip on testing ground. With the aid of cheekpieces for the first time, the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies could prove much better class than his 12 rivals if putting in a clear round of jumping on his second start over the bigger obstacles.
Of the two Venetia Williams-trained contenders, stable jockey Charlie Deutsch will be aboard the nine-year-old Camulus, who has not been seen since winning races at Leicester and Taunton around this time last year. This significant step-up in trip could suit the lightly-raced gelding, although last year’s winning stable continues to struggle at the moment.
Along with Rosscahil, I will also back PLANNED PARADISE from the Christian Williams stable. Winner of a competitive staying handicap chase at Windsor last January, Jack Tudor’s mount was well fancied to win that race for a second time last month, eventually staying-on to finish a never-nearer sixth after being held up at the rear of the field.
Off today’s career-low mark of 98 and over a trip which will suit, the 10-year-old is fancied to run a big race for connections.
Recommendations: Rosscahil - 8/1 with bet365 & Planned Paradise - 5/1 with bet365
2:25pm Bangor - They Want Me (Nap)
A disappointing favourite when only fifth at Ffos Las on his second outing over hurdles, beaten almost 26 lengths, Dan Skelton’s Giantsgrave is better than he showed on that occasion and can improve upon the run in receipt of 6lb from the three previous winners in this novices’ hurdle.
No Cure has his first start for Toby Lawes since the five-year-old won a maiden hurdle at Limerick just after Christmas and is worth noting for any market confidence. After winning on his hurdling debut at Hereford in November, Ben Pauling’s Four Springs failed to follow-up when a short-priced favourite at Market Rasen on Boxing Day, since when the mount of Ben Jones has had a wind op.
The Donald McCain stable are always to be respected with their runners at this track and in THEY WANT ME (Nap) the Cheshire handler has a decent prospect based on his two runs over hurdles to date. No match for Harry Fry’s Idaho Sun on this course on his hurdling debut in November, the form of which received a massive boost when that horse, now rated 141, went on to win the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day, Theo Gillard’s mount went one better on his next start at Kelso towards the end of last year.
Despite going off second favourite behind Nicky Richards’ highly-regarded They’re Chancers at the Borders racecourse, They Want Me always looked to be going better than his main market rival, a length and a half finally separating the pair, and is fancied to follow-up before stepping up in class later in the season.
Recommendation: They Want Me (Nap) - 13/8 with bet365
6:30pm Newcastle - Water Of Leith
A hugely competitive all-weather card at the north-east racecourse, all 9 races due to be shown live on ITV4. While this Class 5 sprint handicap is hardly the highlight of the evening, I think the race provides the Jim Goldie-trained WATER OF LEITH with a good chance of recording his first victory on an artificial surface since the eight-year-old won over today’s course and distance 13 months ago off a mark 5lb higher.
The mount of 5lb claimer Lauren Young has been running well of late despite not enjoying the best of luck, as when failing to get clear runs in a couple of 6f handicaps at Wolverhampton last month. Drawn 10 of 11 tonight, Water Of Leith should get a clear passage on this occasion and is fancied to go close, the main dangers likely to come in the shape of Ruth Carr’s Digital, drawn highest of all in 11, and Richard Fahey’s top weight Emperor’s Son, two places behind the selection at Newcastle 6 days ago when failing to get the best of runs.
Recommendation: Water Of Leith - 5/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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