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An eventful week, the most controversial being the falls of Constitution Hill and our nap The New Lion in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
It’s a case of back to the drawing board for the Seven Barrows superstar; I for one would like to see the eight-year-old jump a fence, as the Blue Bresil gelding would need to have more respect for his obstacles, something which has been sadly missing on three of his last four starts.
I still feel that The New Lion will still prove the one to beat come next March’s Champion Hurdle.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 30 November: -£10.75
- P/L for the year 2025 to date: +£60.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£546.37
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 6 December
A fabulous afternoon of jumps action to look forward to on Saturday and we have selections for all eight races due to be shown on ITV Racing, the highlights being Sandown’s Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Chase, and over at Aintree the William Hill Becher Chase run over the big fences.
1:20pm Sandown - Green Book (Each-Way)
A wide open Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier, in which case it could be worth taking a chance on the Venetia William-trained GREEN BOOK (Each-Way), despite the eight-year-old not having been seen since finishing fourth in the final of this series at the Cheltenham Festival back in 2023.
While the fitness of Charlie Deutsch’s mount has to be taken on trust, the son of Authorized is unbeaten on both of his starts over today’s course and distance, the most recent when winning a seriously competitive Premier Handicap at the Esher racecourse 22 months ago off today’s mark of 134.
Recommendation: Green Book (Each-Way) - 25/1 with bet365 (3 places)
1:50pm Sandown - Lump Sum (w/o Lulamba)
Despite being rated at least 6lb higher than any of his rivals, Nicky Henderson’s Triumph Hurdle runner-up Lulamba should be winning this Grade 1 contest with the race conditions heavily favouring the four-year-old gelding, who had little trouble opening his account over fences in a beginners’ chase at Exeter last month.
It is always a risky proposition laying the odds on a horse in a novices’ chase however, and I would rather back the Sam Thomas-trained LUMP SUM in the market without the favourite. Not far short of top class over hurdles, Dylan Johnston’s mount could not have been more impressive in winning on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, the form of which received a boost when the 16 length runner-up Jax Junior went one better at Kempton last month.
Recommendation: Lump Sum (w/o Lulamba) - 6/4 with Parimatch
2:05pm Aintree - Scarlet Moon
The betting would suggest that this Listed juvenile hurdle rests between Dan Skelton’s newcomer Edelak, rated 86 on the flat for Johnny Murtagh after winning a Galway maiden during the summer, and the Paul Nicholls-trained Treasure Planet, successful on his second outing over the smaller obstacles in a four-runner affair at Ludlow last month.
With risks attached to both of the market leaders, I would rather back Archie Watson’s SCARLET MOON, who improved from his first run over hurdles at Sedgefield in October to easily winning a 14-runner maiden hurdle at Warwick the following month.
Recommendation: Scarlet Moon - 10/1 with Betfred
2:25pm Sandown - Knickerbockerglory (Nap)
With the hurdles course at the Esher track currently described as soft, heavy in places, this £50k handicap hurdle is sure to favour those horses who excel when the mud is flying, one of which is 2023 Chester Cup winner Metier. Harry Fry’s charge has been well beaten on seven subsequent starts however and at the age of 9 his best days are probably behind him.
One horse who will relish the conditions is another nine-year-old in the shape of Dan Skelton’s KNICKERBOCKERGLORY (Nap), whose five wins to date over hurdles all came with the words soft or heavy in the ground, the most recent when winning this race 12 months ago by an easy 8 lengths off a 6lb lower mark.
Beaten less than two lengths when fifth in the Imperial Cup over today’s course and distance on good to soft ground back in March, Harry Skelton’s mount can provide the stable with yet another valuable prize in their quest for this season’s trainer’s championship.
Recommendation: Knickerbockerglory (Nap) - 11/4 with Coral
2:40pm Aintree - Bill Baxter (Each-Way) & Gaboriot (Each-Way)
My two against the field for this 3m 2f Becher Chase run over the big fences are 2023 Topham winner BILL BAXTER (Each-Way) and GABORIOT (Each-Way), the latter 3rd and 2nd respectively in the last two Grand Seftons. The former reverts back to fences after finishing an excellent second over hurdles at Newbury last month and is reunited with Topham winning jockey Sam Twiston-Davies.
The Greenall/Guerriero-trained Gaboriot will appreciate today’s extra five furlongs rather than the 2m 5f of the Grand Sefton and in receipt of weight from all of his rivals, looks sure to run a big race.
Recommendations: Bill Baxter (Each-Way) - 10/1 with bet365 (4 places) & Gaboriot (Each-Way) - 13/2 with William Hill (4 places)
3:00pm Sandown - No Bet
Having backed the Willie Mullins-trained Il Etait Temps at 8/1 (best price now 7/1 with William Hill) for the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the festival, I will pass this race over in anticipation of a repeat of the grey’s hugely impressive course and distance victory in the Celebration Chase on the final day of last season. The result could see a major shake-up in the betting for the Grade 1 Championship contest at Prestbury Park next March.
3:15pm Aintree - Act Of Authority (Each-Way)
Trainer Olly Murphy is responsible for three of the 10 runners in Aintree’s finale, headed by top weight Brewin’upastorm. Now a 12-year-old and not seen since finishing last of 6 in a Sandown Grade 2 last April, it would be no great surprise to see Brian Hughes’ mount outrun his current odds of 22/1.
However, of the three Murphy runners I like the chances of ACT OF AUTHORITY (Each-Way), the mount of 5lb claimer Lewis Saunders. Runner-up to the classy mare Wodhooh in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival, the seven-year-old possibly found the extended three mile trip against him at Aintree on Grand National Day (sent off favourite) and then on his reappearance at Newbury last month.
Back to a more suitable 2m 4f, Act Of Authority gets a narrow vote over Jonjo & A J O’Neill’s course and distance winner Wellington Arch.
Recommendation: Act Of Authority (Each-Way) - 6/1 with William Hill (3 places)
3:35pm Sandown - Tanganyika
A length runner-up in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter back in March, this severe stamina test will suit the Venetia Williams-trained TANGANYIKA down the ground, and despite having to shoulder top weight of 12st, the mount of Charlie Deutsch can supply the stable with a welcome winner following a quiet start to the season.
The seven-year-old made a promising start to the season when holding every chance in a Premier Handicap at Cheltenham’s November meeting until lack of condition told at the business end of the race.
With that race under his belt, Tanganyika can outstay course winner O’Connell from the in-form Parkinson/Smith stable.
Recommendation: Tanganyika - 4/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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