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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 11 July
As the saying goes, you can have too much of a good thing, and in terms of the quality of Saturday’s Flat racing, high-class fixtures at Newmarket, York and Ascot are more about what is best for each individual course rather than the good of the sport as a whole.
With 12 races to cover, starting with the 1:40pm at Newmarket and ending with York’s 4:55pm contest, ITV Racing's coverage is likely to be fast and furious. Take a deep breath and sit back and enjoy.
1:40pm Newmarket - No Bet
Newmarket’s opening maiden probably concerns runners from the two powerhouses of Godolphin and Ballydoyle, although there are a couple of other well-bred juveniles among the field of seven. Charlie Appleby targets this meeting with his most promising juveniles, so any market move for Godolphin’s Al Wathba should be noted, whereas Ballydoyle’s Haffner may be some way down the stable’s pecking-order of juveniles at this stage. A race to watch with a view to the future.
1:55pm Ascot - Havana Hurricane (Each-Way)
After tipping Eve Johnson Houghton’s HAVANA HURRICANE (Each-Way) for a handicap at Sandown last week, I said it was unlikely that we would see the Havana Gold colt racing over the minimum trip again after Jack Mitchell’s mount found himself totally outpaced in the early stages of the race at the Esher racecourse until staying on best of all to finish a never-nearer third, beaten a length and a half.
Here we are 8 days later and the three-year-old is back over 5f in an effort to win this £100 Heritage Handicap. Winner of last year’s Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot over today’s trip, Havana Hurricane is clearly suited by this stiff track, and in a race sure to be run to suit, is worth another chance.
Recommendation: Havana Hurricane (Each-Way) - 13/2 with Betfred (5 places)
2:15pm Newmarket - Shallow
True Test’s Sandringham 6th probably sets the standard for this 7f fillies’ handicap, while big runs can be expected from the consistent pair of Song N Dance and Just A Girl. The vote, however, goes to Richard Spencer’s SHALLOW and jockey Saffie Osborne.
A winner on this course 12 months ago off a 3lb higher mark, the mare has been running well in defeat this season and deserves to get her head in front following 12 subsequent defeats since that victory at headquarters.
Recommendation: Shallow - 6/1 with Coral
2:27pm Ascot - No Lunch
I’m not sure that this round mile will suit Harry Eustace’ course specialist Docklands, who has an excellent record on the straight course. While Queen Anne runner-up More Thunder is the clear form pick, the chances of French raider NO LUNCH may have been underestimated.
Unbeaten on his last six starts, the son of Dubawi is clearly in great heart at the moment and can prove the value bet of the race at current odds of 8/1.
Recommendation: No Lunch - 17/2 with William Hill
2:39pm York - Cerulean Bay
Running off the same mark of 105 as when finish a creditable 5th of 28 in last month’s Royal Hunt Cup, David O’Meara’s CERULEAN BAY is fancied to go one better than on his last two visits to the Knavesmire when beating all bar the William Haggas-trained Bullet Point in the Clipper Handicap at last year’s Ebor meeting, before occupying the same position behind Ralph Beckett’s Maybe Not on York’s Dante card.
At a much better price, it would be no surprise to see Cerulean Bay’s stablemate New Image outrun his current odds of 16/1.
Recommendation: Cerulean Bay - 7/2 with William Hill
2:52pm Newmarket - Wechaad
Raised 7lb for his three quarters of a length victory in Royal Ascot’s Britannia Stakes, George Boughey’s Moonfall may struggle to confirm that form with the seventh horse home on that occasion, Roger Varian’s Wechaad, who was doing his best work at the end of that Heritage Handicap after failing to get anything like a clear run.
Today’s revised terms very much favour Ryan Moore’s mount, who had previously finished a promising fourth over a furlong less at Goodwood on his reappearance. The in-form stable just lost out with Calico Blue on Thursday and Wechaad looks sure to go well with a bit more luck in running from his draw in stall 6.
Recommendation: Wechaad - 5/1 with bet365
3:12pm York - Military Code
The fact that bookmakers go 6/1 the field for York’s City Walls Stakes sums up the openness of this 5f Listed contest, a race in which a victory for any of the 15 contenders would come as no great surprise. At the 14/1 available with bet365, the vote goes to Godolphin’s MILITARY CODE, the mount of jockey Connor Planas.
The Wootton Bassett colt will strip fitter for his run at Sandown last month behind better fancied stablemate Word Of Truth and goes into the race less exposed than most of his rivals.
Recommendation: Military Code - 14/1 with bet365
3:25pm Newmarket - Aalto (Nap)
In what looks to be just an average renewal of this 7f Bunbury Cup (Heritage Cup), last year’s narrow runner-up AALTO (Nap), winner of the race 12 months earlier off a mark of 88, can take the contest for a second time off today’s mark of 87, 5lb less than when beaten a nose by subsequent Group 2 winner More Thunder in last year’s race.
The Zelzal gelding reserves his best for this time of the year and has performed with credit on his last three starts (eased at York when unable to find a clear passage), most recently when going down by just over a length to fellow rival Dark Tornado over today’s course and distance last month.
Now 4lb better off with Michael Wigham’s runner and with jockey William Buick taking over in the saddle, Aalto should have little trouble reversing that form, a bigger danger possibly coming in the shape of James Fanshawe’s Back In Black.
Recommendation: Aalto (Nap) - 7/2 with William Hill
3:45pm York - Warrant Holder
I expect the outcome of this £200k Heritage Handicap to be fought out by the four-year-olds taking part, 12 of which come from that age group. While strong cases can be made for joint top weight Respond, Yabher from the William Haggas stable, who will be going for a fourth victory in the race, and Ed Bethell’s Danger Bay, the two I am most interested in are John & Thady Gosden’s WARRANT HOLDER and Jim Goldie’s Altareq.
The latter, after being slowly away on his first four starts for the stable, made most of the running to win more comfortably than the winning margin of three quarters of a length would suggest at Ayr six days ago, for which the son of Frankel will have to carry a 5lb penalty, negated somewhat by the claim of apprentice Lauren Young.
I am more concerned about Altareq’s draw in stall 18 however, in which case slight preference is for the royal runner Warrant Holder. 6lb Well-in compared to a future mark of 111 following his creditable second in Royal Ascot’s Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes last time, Robert Havlin’s mount can prove a popular winner on the Knavesmire over today’s furlong and a half shorter trip.
Recommendation: Warrant Holder - 5/1 with Coral
4:00pm Newmarket - Al Hudaiba
Ballydoyle’s Curragh maiden winner (runner-up Haffner runs in the opener) Abraham Lincoln has been installed the odds-on favourite for this Group 2 Superlative Stakes run over 7f. However, I prefer to side with the more experienced AL HUDAIBA from the Godolphin stable of Charlie Appleby.
An easy winner on his debut on the Rowley course in May (the runner-up beaten only 2 lengths in the Coventry), the Dark Angel colt was about to follow up at Yarmouth 13 days later only to jink out to his right, unseating jockey Tom Marquand in the process.
Back at Newmarket last month, William Buick’s mount looked a lot more professional when giving both weight and a beating to Richard Hannon’s Down To You Kid, who had shown plenty of promise when third at Newbury on his debut. While this is a step-up in class for Al Hudaiba, the grey is clearly very useful.
Recommendation: Al Hudaiba - 3/1 with William Hill
4:35pm Newmarket - Mission Central
Having been a big fan of Andrew Balding’s progressive Double Rush this season, Oisin Murphy’s mount doing us a favour when landing Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes last month, I am loath to desert the son of Blue Point on his first attempt in Group company.
I think the move straight into a Group 1 contest may prove a step too far for the four-year-old however, who will do well to match strides with the likes of Commonwealth Cup winner Venetian Sun and Queen Elizabeth 11 one-two Almeraq and Satono Reve. This fascinating July Cup may once again go the way of Ballydoyle, with Aidan O’Brien currently joint leading trainer alongside Charles Morton and Vincent O’Brien with 5 winners.
A victory for MISSION CENTRAL would put O’Brien one clear of those two 20th century legends. Unbeaten on all three starts this season, the No Nay Never gelding looked to need every yard of Ascot’s 5f when getting up close home to claim the Group 1 King Charles 111 Strakes at the royal meeting.
Ryan Moore’s mount has won on all three previous attempts at 6f and can go some way towards the sprinting crown with yet another Group 1 success for the Ballydoyle battalion.
Recommendation: Mission Central - 5/1 with BetVictor
4:55pm York - Arabian Force
The betting would suggest that this Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup rests between Tom Clover’s Tabletalk and Mount Atlas from the Andrew Balding stable, a neck separating the pair when second and third respectively behind Gregory in the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup over today’s course and distance last month.
While there should be little between the two horses once again I think this step-up in trip will suit the William Haggas-trained ARABIAN FORCE, who is fancied to go close if repeating his performance in last year’s Great Voltigeur Stakes at the Ebor meeting when beaten a length in third place behind Pride Of Arras and Carmers.
Recommendation: Arabian Force - 5/1 with Paddy Power
Ante-Post: Coral Golden Mile (Goodwood, 31 July) - Tribal Chief (Each-Way)
Having selected the David Menuisier-trained Tribal Chief for Saturday's valuable Coral Challenge at Sandown, the race was pretty much over for Saffie Osborne's mount as the stalls opened, the five-year-old losing in the region of 8 lengths to his rivals in a race where it was almost impossible to win from such a position.
A fast finishing sixth, beaten three lengths, the son of Sioux Nation nevertheless ran a cracking trial for Goodwood's Coral Golden Mile later this month. Currently standing at number 46 for the £175k handicap on the Friday of the five-day festival, and with a maximum field of 20, the five-year-old will need a few to come out in order to make the cut.
Sixth in last year's race off a 2lb lower mark when beaten three lengths after being slowly away once again as a strongly-fancied 11/2 chance, TRIBAL CHIEF (Each-Way) will need to get his act together as the stalls open on the Sussex Downs, but following excellent efforts in both the Lincoln and Victoria Cup this season, the ante-post selection has a big handicap within him at some point.
Recommendation: Tribal Chief (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Betfred & Paddy Power (¼ odds, 1-2-3-4)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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