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Latest Profit & Loss Figures
Following a frustrating start, we ended Royal Ascot week with an excellent profit of +£20.03 to a £1 level stake. Friday and Saturday saw winners at 13/8, 2/1, 4/1, 5/1 and 16/1, although three selections beaten in photos on the final day prevented what could have been an outstanding end to what has been a memorable week for the sport.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, 21 June: +£20.03
- P/L for the year 2026 to date: +£175.53
- P/L for the year 2025: +£22.38
- P/L for the year 2024: +£200.42
- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£676.19
Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 27 June
The ITV Racing cameras are due to cover eight races on Saturday afternoon, five from Newcastle and three from York.
The big betting race of the day is the JenningsBet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap), more commonly known in the north-east as the Pitman’s Derby.
1:40pm Newcastle - Supido
A wide-open 7f handicap to kick-start ITV’s coverage for the afternoon. In a race which makes only limited appeal from a betting perspective, this looks a good opportunity for Ian Williams’ SUPIDO to open his account on an artificial surface, the Blue Point gelding successful on three occasions on turf, twice in France and most recently at Chester last month.
Fifth of 30, beaten a length and a half in last year’s Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot off a mark of 98, William Buick’s mount is more than capable of winning this Class 2 contest off a 4lb lower mark.
Recommendation: Supido - 5/1 with Betvictor
1:55pm York - Frankies Dream (Each-Way)
With 5 winners from her last 19 runners as I write (Thursday afternoon), the Jennie Candlish stable couldn’t be in much better form at the moment, and in the four-year-old FRANKIES DREAM (Each-Way) I think they have an excellent chance of taking this one mile handicap on the Knavesmire.
The mount of Clifford Lee has performed well on all three visits to York, including a narrow success in a 22-runner 7f handicap here 13 months ago. A half length second to Andrew Balding’s hot favourite Point Of Contact when in receipt of 4lb two weeks ago, another big run from Frankies Dream is expected off a 2lb higher mark.
Recommendation: Frankies Dream (Each-Way) - 17/2 with bet365 (5 places)
2:10pm Newcastle - Heavenly Heather (Each-Way)
While it is easy to make a case out for most of the 12 contenders for this Group 3 Chipchase Stakes, in particular Andrew Balding’s Marvelman, last year’s winner Diligent Harry and William Haggas’s dual course winner Wiltshire, at a double-figure price I think the chances of the Tracy Waggott-trained HEAVENLY HEATHER (Each-Way) may have been underestimated.
A shock winner at odds of 200/1 on this course last April when rated only 79, the daughter of Shamarda has made great strides since then, winning on another two occasions at Gosforth Park along with several excellent efforts in defeat. A 40/1 chance for last week’s Group 1 King Charles 111 Stakes at Royal Ascot, Barry McHugh’s mount ran an absolute stormer to finish 6th of the 26 runners, beaten a length and a half.
With her excellent record on this course, a big run is expected from this admirable five-year-old mare, who is a credit to her connections.
Recommendation: Heavenly Heather (Each-Way) - 11/1 with bet365 (4 places)
2:25pm York - Fortification
Since joining Brian Ellison from the Archie Watson stable in the spring, the Mehmas gelding Fortification has run three cracking races on the Knavesmire, first of all when beating many of these at the Dante meeting, and most recently when finishing an excellent third behind a possible Group horse in William Haggas’s Thunder Call in the valuable 22-runner Macmillan Sprint two weeks ago.
Drawn highest of all in stall 22, FORTIFICATION did well to get to within a length of the two principles, who were both drawn in single figures. A rise of 3lb for that excellent effort looks more than fair, and despite dropping back down to the minimum trip, I think Ben Robinson’s mount is going to take plenty of beating.
Recommendation: Fortification - 9/2 with William Hill
2:40pm Newcastle - Believitanducan
This Northumberland Plate consolation race looks just as open as the feature race later on in the afternoon. Last year’s winner Savrola has been dropped to a mark only 3lb higher than when successful 12 months ago and has to be respected along with Neil King’s Arc Zoosve, who is now on a five-timer following victories at Southwell, Goodwood and Lingfield (twice).
However, the Alan King stable is in good form at the moment and I like the booking of jockey William Buick for the five-year-old BELIEVITANDUCAN, who has a 5lb penalty to carry for his win at Chester last month, but still 2lb well-in compared to a future mark of 84.
The son of Make Believe is relatively lightly raced on the Flat with three wins from 7 starts on turf along with a couple of second places. With a middle draw in stall 10, the Barbury Castle runner ticks plenty of boxes.
Recommendation: Believitanducan - 4/1 with bet365
2:58pm York - Never So Brave (Nap)
Sent off the 11/10 market leader for last week’s Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, William Haggas’s Saber Strike makes a quick reappearance 7 days after finishing a well beaten 6th in that Group 3 contest. I must admit I was mystified by the level of support for a horse who had previously only won a minor contest at Redcar and a Listed race at Newmarket.
The son of Night Of Thunder, who is having a successful time at stud, is clearly well regarded by connections but still has plenty to prove on the racecourse. Rated 7lb higher, I think Tom Marquand’s mount will have his work cut out to beat Andrew Balding’s NEVER SO BRAVE (Nap) and champion jockey Oisin Murphy.
A Group 1 winner at York’s Ebor meeting, the No Nay Never gelding could never strike a blow in the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Epsom’s Derby meeting following a slow start, a race dominated by those horses racing up with the pace. On today’s good to firm ground, Never So Brave is fancied to get back to winning ways.
Recommendation: Never So Brave (Nap) - 11/10 with Betfred
3:15pm Newcastle - Dancing In Paris (Each-Way)
Not the classiest of Northumberland Plates but just as competitive as ever. The market is headed by Richard Hughes’ Circus Of Rome, the winner of a Racing League race on this course last summer and the subject of a major recent gamble. However, the four-year-old looks short enough based on a couple of modest efforts this season and I expect the mount of Finley Marsh to drift on the day from current odds of 3/1.
At a double-figure price, the vote goes to last year’s narrow runner-up DANCING IN PARIS (Each-Way), who has almost certainly been trained for some time with another crack at the ‘Pitman’s Derby’ in mind.
Beaten a neck by fellow rival Spirit Mixer with the rest of the field three and more lengths away last year, Dougie Costello’s mount now meets Andrew Balding’s charge on 2lb better terms. Sent off at odds of 40/1 when unplaced in Epsom’s Northern Dancer on Derby Day, the gelding’s first outing for nine months, Dancing In Paris is sure to improve plenty with that run under his belt.
That race on testing ground will have put Dancing In Paris spot-on for this £150k Heritage Handicap, and a big run is expected.
Recommendation: Dancing In Paris (Each-Way) - 16/1 with Coral (5 places)
3:45pm Newcastle - Pocklington (Each-Way)
While strong claims can be made for both William Haggas’s March course and distance winner Power Fizz and the Ollie Sangster-trained Tuco Salamanca, who has such a good record on the all-weather (5 from 9), slight preference is for Geoff Oldroyd’s POCKLINGTON (Each-Way), a short head second to fellow rival Fivethousandtoone in this race 12 months ago.
P J McDonald’s mount, following a wind op in April, ran well until weakening close home to finish 8th of 22 in a sprint handicap at York’s Dante meeting last time. The Blue Point gelding deserves to win this £50k contest for a stable which does so well with its sprinters and following last year’s near miss.
Recommendation: Pocklington (Each-Way) - 13/2 with bet365 (4 places)
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Free Bets in 2008.
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