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Alan Kelly's Tips - Saturday, 10 January
Fingers crossed, the “precautionary” inspections to be held at Warwick and Kempton Park on Saturday morning prove to be just that.
Providing the two meetings go ahead as planned, ITV cameras will be covering a total of 10 races, five from Warwick, four from Kempton Park and one from the Irish card at Fairyhouse.
1:15pm Warwick - Moon Phases
On the face of it, a wide-open two and a half mile Class 4 handicap chase.
With just one run over fences to his name, the least exposed of the 13 contenders is the Russell/Scudamore-trained Moon Phases, who made a promising start to his career over fences when losing out by a neck at Kelso two months ago (the well beaten 3rd and 5th horses home have won since) to another promising type in Laura Morgan’s Classical Sting.
Derek Fox’s mount has the scope to prove better than his current chase mark of 110.
Recommendation: Moon Phases - 9/2 with William Hill
1:30pm Kempton - Precious Man
Despite having to concede 10lb to his 8 rivals in this juvenile hurdle, the Dan Skelton-trained Precious Man should prove up to the task. An awkward jump at the last didn’t help his chances when runner-up to Harry Derham’s One Horse Town on his first run since leaving the French stable of Daniela Mele during the summer.
That run in a Cheltenham Grade 2 juvenile contest sets the standard however, a repeat of which should be good enough to see off main rivals Pourquoi Pas Papa and Wertpol.
Recommendation: Precious Man - 8/13 with Paddy Power
1:40pm Fairyhouse - Blood Destiny
Three from 11 over fences, this will be just the second time that the Willie Mullins-trained top weight Blood Destiny will have tackled handicap company, the first when pulled-up (found to be coughing) in a valuable Listed race at the 2024 Punchestown Festival.
Paul Townsend's mount is a classy chaser at his best, and at the age of 7 is more than capable of conceding the weight to his 11 rivals in this valuable Grade 3 handicap.
Recommendation: Blood Destiny - 13/2 with William Hill
1:52pm Warwick - Doyen Quest
Unbeaten on both of his starts over fences at Worcester and Cheltenham, I’m not convinced this course will play to the strengths of Olly Murphy’s Wade Out in this Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase.
Dan Skelton's Doyen Quest is likely to make this a good test from the front and if getting into a nice rhythm could put the jumping of Sean Bowen’s mount to the test.
Recommendation: Doyen Quest - 9/2 with Betfred
2:05pm Kempton - The Doyen Chief (Nap)
Top weight Soul Icon runs off the same mark of 143 as when winning the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase on this course back in 2024. I’m not convinced Keiren Burke’s charge truly stays this trip of 3m however (weakened to finish 9th in Aintree’s 2m 5f Topham Chase last year), especially with 12st to shoulder.
Paul Nicholls’ Welcom To Cartries opened his account over fences at Sandown last month after proving slightly disappointing on his first three starts over the bigger obstacles. Highly-tried on his last two starts, I think Alan King’s The Doyen Chief will appreciate this drop in Grade and over what is probably his ideal trip.
Tom Bellamy’s mount ran out a comfortable winner over today’s course and distance last March before following-up off a 5lb higher mark at Warwick 12 days later. Runner-up to Christian Williams’ Deep Cove on his reappearance at Bangor in November (winner went on to win Ascot’s valuable Howden Silver Cup), The Doyen Chief can open his account for the season off a mark of 138 and with conditions to suit.
Recommendation: The Doyen Chief (NAP) - 3/1 with Coral
2:25pm Warwick - Premier
The Warren Greatrex stable continues in good form and his lightly-raced four-year-old Premier was strongly fancied for a race the other day before the meeting was abandoned.
On just his third start over hurdles, the mount of Caolin Quinn justified favouritism with a narrow victory at Taunton last month, giving the impression that there was a lot more improvement to come from the gelding, who has every chance of taking this wide-open handicap off joint bottom weight.
Recommendation: Premier - 6/1 with bet365
2:40pm Kempton - Kalif Du Berlais
Highly regarded by trainer Paul Nicholls, it is easy to forgive Kalif Du Berlais’ effort in Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance, as Harry Cobden's mount was attempting to concede plenty of weight to one of the most improved chasers in training in Dan Skelton's Thistle Ask, who was in receipt of 20lb from last season’s Aintree Grade 1 winner.
In a race that makes little appeal from a betting perspective, it will be disappointing if the short priced favourite is unable to beat his three exposed rivals.
Recommendation: Kalif Du Berlais - 5/6 with Coral
2:55pm Warwick - Destroytheevidence (EW)
The presence of 2024 Gold Cup fourth L’Homme Presse means that 4 of the 9 runners in this 3m 5f Premier Handicap will be racing from out of the handicap. However, the Bailey/Nicholls contender Destroytheevidence is only 1lb wrong and gets the each-way vote in the hands of jockey Ciaran Gethings.
Despite only the one win from 8 starts over fences when giving 8lb and a beating to last month’s Welsh Grand National winner Haiti Couleurs at Chepstow 15 months ago, the eight-year-old has produced some creditable performances under big weights in defeat. On his first try over this marathon trip, the gelding will think he has been let loose with just 10st 2lb to carry.
Recommendation: Destroytheevidence (EW) - 12/1 with Coral
3:17pm Kempton - French Ship
As is usually the case, this £100k Coral Lanzarote Hurdle looks as open as ever, featuring a field of 17 decent handicap hurdlers. Starting the season on a mark of 128 when falling in Chepstow’s Silver Hurdle (challenging when coming to grief 3 out) back in October, the Hobbs/White-trained French Ship is now rated some 18lb higher following wins at Cheltenham and Newbury.
The six-year-old never really looked in danger of defeat in either of those races, and with the 3lb claim of rider Callum Pritchard, I think this vastly improved hurdler is capable of defying top weight. At the other end of the handicap, Dan Skelton’s unexposed A Pai De Nom heads a list of several potential dangers.
Recommendation: French Ship - 5/1 with bet365
3:32pm Warwick - Green Book (EW)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Venetia Williams-trained Green Book outrun his odds in this Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier, as the mount of Charlie Deutsch looked badly in need of the run when pulled-up at Sandown last month, the nine-year-old’s first start for 996 days.
Prior to that run at the Esher racecourse, Green Book had finished fourth in the final of this series at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. On just his 15th start over hurdles, the each-way selection doesn’t have many miles on the clock and is worth chancing against the clear form choice of the race in Tom Symonds’ Lud’or.
Recommendation: Green Book (EW) - 25/1 with Paddy Power
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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