Alan Kelly’s Tips
Alan heads to the Cheltenham Festival on Thursday for his best bet
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A frustrating end to last week with narrowly beaten seconds at 11/1 (backed into 9/4), 5/2, 11/1 (Nap) and 20/1. Winners at 15/2 (Nap) and 13/2 helped to end the final week before the Cheltenham Festival with a small profit of +£4.90, although things could have been so much better.
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Alan Kelly's Tips - Cheltenham Festival Day Three
The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle at 3:20pm, followed by the Ryanair Chase at 4:00pm are the feature races on the third day of the Cheltenham Festival.
2:00pm Cheltenham - Regent’s Stroll (Nap)
The trainer/jockey combination of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden took this Grade 2 novices’ limited handicap with Stage Star in 2023 and 12 months ago with Caldwell Potter. The pair are represented by REGENT'S STROLL (Nap) on this occasion, the Walk In The Park gelding boasting a similar profile to both of those winners.
Beaten half a length by leading Stayers’ Hurdle candidate Honesty Policy in Aintree’s Grade 1 Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle on his final start over hurdles, the seven-year-old was much too keen on his chasing debut behind talented staying novice Wendigo at Newbury in November, yet still managed to be beaten a little over six lengths.
Regent’s Stroll had little trouble opening his account over fences with a comfortable victory in a match at Wincanton just before Christmas. Runner-up when conceding 5lb to a decent novice in Stuart Edmunds’ Miami Magic over today’s course and distance on New Year’s Day, I think the selection has the potential to prove a lot better than his current mark of 145.
It's hard to fault the form of Fergal O’Brien’s Sixmilebridge, unbeaten on all three starts over fences, the most recent when winning Sandown’s Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase. Kielan Woods’ mount may prove the main danger to the Ditcheat runner along with the JP McManus-owned pair of Meetmebythesea and Stencil.
Recommendation: Regent’s Stroll (Nap) - 6/1 with Ladbrokes
2:40pm Cheltenham - Jade de Grugy
This Grade 1 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle looks to concern Gordon Elliott’s Wodhooh, considered by many as one of the week’s bankers, and JADE DE GRUGY from the powerful Closutton stable of Willie Mullins. Wodhooh has suffered only the one defeat from 10 outings over hurdles, that coming at the hands of Lossiemouth in last year’s Aintree Hurdle at the Grand National meeting.
The daughter of La Havre progressed from winning handicaps to victories in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races at Ascot and Leopardstown this season. Jack Kennedy’s mount is clearly a mare to be proud of, but I don’t think she has much in hand over Jade de Grugy, who gets the vote from a value perspective.
No match for Lossiemouth in this race 12 months ago when doing the donkey work out in front, the mare now returns to the smaller obstacles after three runs over fences. If in the same kind of form as when easily beating Gala Marceau and Brighterdaysahead in the Mares Champion Hurdle at Punchestown back in May, Paul Townsend’s mount is capable of causing a bit of a surprise.
Recommendation: Jade de Grugy - 7/2 with William Hill
3:20pm Cheltenham - Impose Toi (Each-Way)
With form figures in this championship contest reading 3-1-2, it is hard to envisage anything other than another big run from Gordon Elliott’s 2024 winner Teahupoo, especially after the nine-year-old’s easy victory at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting over Henry De Bromhead’s Bob Olinger, winner of this race 12 months ago.
The home team have three strong contenders in Dan Skelton’s Kabral Du Mathan, Ma Shantou from the 2019 winning stable of Emma Lavelle and the Nicky Henderson-trained IMPOSE TOI (Each-Way). While claims can be made for all three, at double-figure odds the each-way vote goes to Nico De Boinville’s mount.
The ultra-consistent son of It’s Gino (yet to finish out of the first 4 in 17 outings to date, including 9 victories) won his first three starts of the season when stepping up to today’s trip for the first time, the most recent when running out the cosy winner of Ascot’s Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle with fellow rival Honesty Policy back in third place.
Outstayed by Ma Shantou on today’s New course in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trial’s Day, the 6lb turn around in the weights, on what is sure to be more suitable ground, gives the J P McManus-owned eight-year-old every chance of reversing that form. I expect De Boinville to delay his challenge a little later on this occasion in what is a fascinating, if hardly vintage renewal of this stamina test.
Recommendation: Impose Toi (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365 (4 places)
4:00pm Cheltenham - Banbridge (w/o Fact To File)
Utra-impressive when winning this race 12 months ago, It must have been a difficult decision for connections in deciding to attempt back-to-back victories in this Ryanair Chase rather than let last month’s Irish Gold Cup winner Fact To File take his chance in tomorrow’s Boodles Gold Cup.
A repeat of last year’s demolition job will make Mark Walsh’s mount very hard to beat, in which case I am more interested in the market without the odds-on favourite. Yet to finish out of the first two in 27 runs under rules, Nicky Henderson’s multiple Grade 1 winner Jonbon is always to be respected, although connections were tempted to bypass Cheltenham in favour of Aintree, which probably suits the 10-year-old better than Prestbury Park.
Henry De Bromhead’s Heart Wood, a long-looking 9 lengths behind Fact To File when runner-up last year, will be fancied to make the frame once again. However, if one horse is capable of giving Fact To File a run for his money, I think it is likely to be the Joseph O’Brien-trained BANBRIDGE.
Winner of Kempton’s King George V1 Chase in 2024, Sean Bowen’s mount failed by a nose to follow-up 12 months later, three noses separating winner The Jukebox Man from Banbridge and Gaelic Warrior, with Jango Baie half a length back in fourth place (a below-par Fact Or File a disappointing 6th).
Those three horses currently head the betting for tomorrow’s Gold Cup. Today’s trip of just over two and a half miles on ground, likely to be riding more good than good to soft, are probably Banbridge’s ideal conditions. I was thinking of backing the son of Doyen each-way but have decided on the safer option of taking the favourite out of the equation.
Recommendation: Banbridge (w/o Fact To File) - 11/4 with William Hill
4:40pm Cheltenham - Bold Endeavour & Absolutely Doyen (Each-Way)
With former top weight Impose Toi declared to run in the earlier Stayers’ Hurdle rather than in this Pertemps Final, Gordon Elliott’s Staffordshire Knot now heads the 24 runners off a mark of 152, all of which will be running off their current weight following a rise of 7lb, my two against the field being Paul Nicholls’ ABSOLUTELY DOYEN (Each-Way) and BOLD ENDEAVOUR from the Nicky Henderson stable.
The former has improved at a rate of knots since leaving the Fergal O’Brien stable 5 months ago, the son of Doyen winning on all five starts, going from an opening mark of 113 to the 135 he runs off today. Harry Cobden’s mount has yet to be really tested since stepping up in trip and may still prove a few pounds ahead of the handicapper.
While it is easy to make a case out for the Ditcheat runner, the chances of the Seven Barrows contender is less straightforward. The gelding's first taste of the festival came in 2023 when finishing 5th of 26 behind Langer Dan in the Coral Cup, after which James Bowen's mount’s form figures at Prestbury Park read 2-2-4, the most recent when finishing fourth, beaten less than four lengths in this race two years ago.
After that excellent run, Bold Endeavour’s form took a nosedive, leading to an unsuccessful spell with trainer Laura Morgan. Returning to Henderson at the start of this season, the 10-year-old showed much of his old sparkle when third in a qualifier at Huntingdon in January. This race has clearly been the plan for Bold Endeavour since then, the Fame And Glory gelding now running off a mark 13lb lower than was the case in the 2024 final.
Recommendations: Bold Endeavour - 14/1 with BetVictor & Absolutely Doyen (Each-Way) - 12/1 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
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