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An excellent week ending Sunday, October 19th, which resulted in four winning days and featuring winners at 11/8, 11/2, 16/1, 5/1, 7/2, 2/1 and 11/4.
Four out the last seven Nap of the Day selections have obliged at odds of 7/1, 11/8, 2/1 and 11/4.
- P/L for the week ending Sunday, October 19th: +£25.83
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- P/L since 1st September 2022: +£508.65
Alan Kelly's Tips - Thursday, October 23rd
Thursday's jumps action in Britain comes from the meetings at Ludlow and Fontwell, the Shropshire racecourse badly in need of some rain to ease the current good to firm ground conditions.
2:07pm Ludlow - Kit’s Coty
Bottom weight Mini Fortune has a 7lb penalty to carry for last week’s Ffos Las victory, the mare’s first in seven starts over fences. With the 5lb claim of rider Callum Pritchard, Thomas Faulkner’s charge has a fair chance of following up in receipt of lumps of weight from her four rivals.
It’s hard to know what to expect from Loud And Proud, beaten at odds of 1/9 in a match at Fakenham back in April when in the care of trainer James Owen before moving to the stable of Sarah-Jayne Davies recently.
Top weight Another Day Out finished second in this race 12 months ago, beaten just a nose, but it the horse who came home in third place on that occasion, three quarters of a length behind the runner-up, who makes most appeal, the horse in question being the Emma Lavelle-trained KIT'S COTY.
Now some 12lb better off with Martin Keighley’s runner, the daughter of Black Sam Bellamy was struggling to finish off her races after that promising first effort of last season, since when the seven-year-old has undergone wind surgery. Jonathan Burke’s mount has a good record following a break and from a stable with 6 winners from their last 12 runners as I write, Kit’s Coty is handicapped to win this if running up to anything like her best.
Recommendation: Kit's Coty - 6/1 with bet365
2:45pm Fontwell - Grain Trade (Nap)
Ben Pauling’s dual Bumper winner Dunskay is an interesting runner on his chasing debut in this Fontwell Chase Series Qualifier, the mount of Ben Jones looking the type to do well over the bigger obstacles. However, I will be surprised if the six-year-old is capable of conceding 19lb to last week’s impressive Market Rasen winner GRAIN TRADE (Nap), who is 5lb well-in under his 7lb penalty (due to go up 12lb in the future).
On just his second run over fences, the Billy Aprahamian-trained son of Telescope was sent off a well-backed 2/1 favourite to open his account in the hands of the excellent Gavin Sheehan; the result never really in doubt as the six-year-old cruised home from his two main market rivals. The stable, following a quiet start to the season, has hit a bit of form in the last week and should add to their recent tally with another victory for this unexposed gelding.
Recommendation: Grain Trade (Nap) - Evens with bet365
4:07pm Ludlow - Matchadam
Matt Sheppard’s Olivia Kate’s only victory from 13 hurdle starts to date came with a 18 length victory over today’s course and distance last November off a mark of 74. Now 13lb higher, Stan Sheppard’s mount goes into today’s race on the back of a decent reappearance effort when finishing a close fifth at Chepstow a couple of weeks ago.
The grey mare is far from straightforward however and probably not one to trust implicitly. In a race which shouldn’t take too much winning, the horse I like is the Tom Lacey-trained MATCHADAM, the stable currently running at a 36% strike-rate over the last two weeks.
We have yet to see the best of the lightly-raced seven-year-old, who, following promising handicap debut third at Southwell 12 months ago, was heavily supported to open his account on that course back in May, only to weaken into fourth place late-on after holding every chance.
The mount of 5lb claimer Cameron Iles had a wind op shortly after that race and now returns to action off what could prove to be a very lenient mark of 76, 71 if you take his rider’s claim into account. Lacey has recorded 4 wins and 4 second from his last 11 runners and could hardly be in better form.
Recommendation: Matchadam - 9/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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