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Alan Kelly's Tips - Tuesday, 27 January
Tuesday’s jumps racing comes from the meetings at Chepstow and Newcastle in Britain and Limerick in Ireland.
There is the possibility of snow at the north-east track, with light rain forecast for the other two fixtures on top of the current testing conditions.
1:00pm Chepstow - Boston Joe (Each-Way)
Despite 5 victories from 18 starts over fences, the Rebecca Curtis-trained BOSTON JOE (Each-Way), has yet to get his head in front over the smaller obstacles from seven attempts to date. At the age of 10, the oldest of the 16 contenders for this novices’ handicap hurdle can finally put that record straight at long last with conditions to suit.
Runner-up over today’s course and distance 14 months ago when beaten three quarters of a length in a 18-runner handicap off a mark of 100, a race in which the gelding looked all over the winner until caught in the closing stages, later found to have sustained a wound to his right-hind.
Now running off a mark 3lb lower, and following a decent effort when third over hurdles at Ffos Las on his reappearance in October, before occupying the same position over fences 12 days later, the mount of Ben Jones is fancied provide yet another winner for a jockey who can do little wrong at the moment.
Top weight Luwdvig ran out a convincing winner at Lingfield last week but a 7lb penalty to carry, while Crossbeau and Locked Down Lad, first and second respectively in a similar race over today’s course and distance back in November are others to consider.
Recommendation: Boston Joe (Each-Way) - 8/1 with bet365 (5 places)
3:35pm Newcastle - Fenland Tiger
Unbeaten on both starts over today’s course and distance, once over hurdles and once over fences, Sam England’s FENLAND TIGER will be more at home in this company than when finishing tailed-off last in Haydock’s Tommy Whittle just before Christamas.
A bad mistake at the 13th fence at the Merseyside racecourse ended any chance the 10-year-old had in that extended 3m 1f Class 2 contest, the mount of Jonathan England a promising second on his previous start behind a rejuvenated Anglers Crag at Carlisle.
Now running off a mark 2lb lower than when winning this race two years ago, Fenland Tiger failed to get home when sent off favourite for the marathon Eider Chase on this course the following month. The selection probably has his ideal conditions today and is fancied to make it 4 wins from 9 starts over fences at the main expense of bottom weight The Big Breac, who is better than when finishing fourth in Market Rasen’s Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day.
Recommendation: Fenland Tiger - 5/1 with bet365
3:47pm Chepstow - Dangerous Touch (Nap)
A winner over hurdles at Ffos Las 12 months ago on his handicap debut, Olly Murphy’s seven-year-old DANGEROUS TOUCH (Nap) has taken his time to adapt to the bigger obstacles this season, the mount of Sean Bowen jumping out to his right on his first two starts at Lingfield and Haydock, along with some far from fluent jumping.
With that experience under his belt, the grey improved to finish third at Ayr on his most recent start earlier in the month, one place ahead of Ian Duncan’s Celestial Fashion who went on to record a comfortable victory at Wetherby last week. Fitted with cheekpieces for the first time in an effort to keep a straighter course, Dangerous Touch, dropped 5lb to a mark of 107 since making his chasing debut two months ago, possesses more scope than the majority of his 16 rivals in this Class 4 contest.
Ali Star Bert, pulled-up in last week’s Surrey National, is better judged on his two earlier wins at Southwell, although the main danger to the selection may come in the shape of the unexposed Fat Faced Columbo. Richard Mitford-Slade’s charge was narrowly beaten on his chasing debut at Exeter in November before going one better at Taunton just after Christmas, and like Dangerous Touch, is open to more improvement.
Recommendation: Dangerous Touch (Nap) - 13/2 with bet365
* Betting odds correct at the time of publication. All odds are subject to changes.
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About Alan Kelly
A passionate follower of horse racing for over 50 years, Alan has enjoyed a 40-year career in the betting industry, 28 of which he spent running his betting shop as an owner/manager.
A successful punter with a keen eye for value, Alan has had many betting highlights, including a Scoop 6 win and has shown a consistent profit in the battle with bookmakers since joining Freebets.com in 2008.
You can follow Alan Kelly on Twitter for more racing insight.
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